Oil analysts say forecasting the timing of a bottom in prices has been particularly difficult because of the unknowns around U.S. production, and most have now extended their forecasts for low oil well into next year.
Not exact matches
The price of
oil has risen to its highest since late 2014 this month, driven by concern over the potential for disruption to Iranian crude flows, but
analysts say the degree of uncertainty hanging over the deal means the market is extremely sensitive to any developments.
During
oil's deep decline, Schlumberger offered to drill in oilfields that were on hiatus in exchange for a share of future production, a move that was «very controversial» and has yet to pay off,
says Colin Davies, an
analyst at Bernstein.
Demand is rising too: Goldman
says China and other emerging markets are using more
oil than
analysts had anticipated, while low gas prices are encouraging American consumers to drive more than ever.
«The idea that gasoline demand is actually rising suggests that perhaps the lower prices of crude are actually prompting a greater usage of this product (gasoline),»
said Vyanne Lai,
oil analyst at National Australia Bank.
We have a different view on inflation, which we see below 2 percent even in 2018,»
analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
said in a note on Wednesday, explaining that
oil prices will keep headline inflation low.
«
Oil reacted very severely» to Netanyahu's announcement,
said Phil Flynn,
analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
«Every now and then there's a company that chooses to stop talking to you, but those are few and far between,»
says Rafi Khouri, an international
oil and gas
analyst at Raymond James.
«
Oil supplies (from the United States) are continuing to grow and there are no signs of a reversal,»
said Fawad Razaqzada, market
analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com.
«If the
oil price is going down, it's very difficult to stand in front of that speeding train and hope you are in the one or two stocks that aren't highly correlated with the downward movement,»
says Randy Ollenberger, an
analyst with BMO Capital Markets.
Oil analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co, who encourage Exxon shareholders to sell,
said in a note to clients on Monday that Tillerson's experience could be a benefit to the incoming Trump administration.
He flunked out, he
says, of honours chemistry at McGill, and after graduating with a general science degree, worked for a while at Shell
Oil as a business
analyst.
The OPEC - Russia alliance is not ready to give up its renewed power to increase
oil prices,
says leading
analyst Dan Yergin.
At a time when tech
analysts tended to be exuberant bulls while bankers were more skeptical, «Ruth was the
oil in the machinery» that helped the team agree on which transactions to back,
says Joe Perella, then head of Morgan Stanley's investment banking.
Oil majors and large independent drillers need to shore up their asset portfolios after several years of underinvestment during a price slump,
analysts say.
That
says it all,»
said Nevyn Nah,
oil products
analyst at Energy Aspects.
«This year, however, (OPEC's) production curbs will increasingly have to make do with playing second fiddle to a Texas - sized wave of U.S. shale growth,» Stephen Brennock,
oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note Wednesd
oil analyst at PVM
Oil Associates, said in a research note Wednesd
Oil Associates,
said in a research note Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Merrill Lynch
analysts said they now expect the
oil market to be undersupplied by about 430,000 barrels a day in 2018, up from their prior forecast for a 100,000 - barrel - per - day deficit.
However, monthly figures show U.S.
oil production flatlining recently, and even dipping in June,
said Amrita Sen, chief
oil analyst at research consultancy Energy Aspects.
U.S. drillers are likely to start pumping more
oil after a sharp rally in prices since December, Goldman
analysts say.
Morgan Stanley equity
analyst Martijn Rats
said Monday that strong capital flows into the
oil market will occasionally push Brent prices into the $ 70 - $ 75 range.
Oil prices could continue trading sideways ahead of the U.S. elections just six days away,
analysts said.
Still, many
analysts say efforts after the
oil shock to insulate the economy from future crises may have paid off.
«It's not directly tied to Alberta, and it's not directly tied to
oil,»
says Robert Sedran, a CIBC Capital Markets
analyst.
Oil prices will be in the $ 60 range by the end of the year,
says Pavel Molchanov, senior vice president and energy
analyst at Raymond James.
«While the fourth quarter was a disaster for both, Chevron got back on track» in the first quarter,
said Brian Youngberg, an
oil industry
analyst at Edward Jones.
You can not outsource its collection, analysis or delivery,»
said Bhakhri, whose employer EOG has been dubbed «the Apple of
oil» by
analysts because of its use of in - house technology and data analytics.
On a conference call to discuss fourth - quarter earnings that beat
analyst expectations, the Calgary - based company
said Thursday it plans to drill only 59 net Alberta heavy
oil wells in the current quarter, down from 116 drilled in the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, one can only ponder how long they are willing to shoulder the burden of supporting
oil prices on their own,» PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga sa
oil prices on their own,» PVM
Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga sa
Oil Associates
analyst Tamas Varga
said.
«We continue to review our capital program in the context of the current market and are evaluating reducing our heavy
oil drilling program for the second half of 2018 and substituting a light
oil program instead, if it makes sense,»
said president Tim McKay on a call with
analysts.
Some
analysts, however,
said there was a risk that prices could slump as too many
oil traders were betting on renewed sanctions.
«For the largest, most complicated capital projects in
oil, gas, mining, and infrastructure, it's really Bechtel and Fluor,»
says Yuri Lynk, an
analyst with Canadian capital markets firm Canaccord Genuity.
«Low
oil prices have significantly reduced operator spending on exploration - particularly in deep water, which is very costly,»
said Cindy Giglio, an
analyst at IHS Markit.
«From a pure demand perspective, the China risk is pretty much priced in,»
said Matt Parry, senior
oil analyst at the International Energy Agency in Paris, in an email.
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity
said Monday the project's $ 5.3 - bilion northern leg «is no longer a necessity» for Canadian
oil sands producers, thanks to the sudden rise of crude - carrying unit trains and rival pipeline schemes proposed by Enbridge Inc..
«If Keystone does not get approved, the rail capacity is going to be there,» Phil Skolnick, managing director and senior
oil and gas
analyst at Canaccord,
said in an interview.
«Simplification, standardization and deflation are repositioning the
oil industry for better profitability and cash generation in the current environment than in 2013 - 14 when the
oil price was above $ 100 a barrel,» Goldman Sachs
analysts said in a research note on Wednesday, as quoted by Bloomberg.
«This is a clear sign of how spoilt Asia is for choice these days, with Middle Eastern crude now having to compete with
oil from other regions,» Amrita Sen, the chief
oil - market
analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., a London - based consultant,
said in an e-mail.
Talk is growing of a nuclear deal that could see a lifting of sanctions against Iran, a move that could turn the tap on its
oil exports — something that would have significant ramifications for the volatile commodity,
analysts say.
Supermajor
oil companies are living a new reality that is based on new profits in a forever - low
oil price environment — and globally,
analysts say, the
oil sector is a great investment.
S&P Platts
said at the start of this week that
analysts it polled had forecast a 2.4 - million - barrel build in crude
oil stockpiles, with the agency warning this would pressure prices, along with a surge in
oil imports.
I think we might see about half of the states get to $ 3,»
said Tom Kloza, global energy
analyst at
Oil Price Information Service.
But
analysts said the lack of a smoking gun took some of the heat out of
oil prices.
Others have taken the other side of the bet, and overnight Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities
analyst at SEB,
says that he thinks there is a «very low chance» of an OPEC
oil - output cut tomorrow.
Guidance from pipeline company Enbridge Inc. that it will modestly reallocate some light
oil pipeline space on its Mainline for heavy crude and additional rail capacity smoothed the flow of
oil,
analysts have
said.
Last week's strange diesel exports are more likely an anomaly than a trend: As the U.S. continues to ramp up output of light, sweet, Texas
oil, refiners» ability to pump out diesel will be threatened, and the U.S. will soon face a shortfall, Fitch's BMI Research
analysts said Wednesday in a note.
Crude
oil futures were marginally lower in Asian morning trade Thursday, after weekly US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a surprise build in US crude stocks, but
analysts said geopolitical risks were limiting the decline.
Genscape
oil analyst Carl Evans
said that, even with crude prices below $ 50 (U.S.) a barrel over the past two years, heavy bitumen production in Canada's
oil sands region has continued to grow.
ANALYST VIEWPOINT: «Strong gains in the oil market and a solid close in U.S. markets should see a positive open to the trading week this morning,» said Rick Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC M
ANALYST VIEWPOINT: «Strong gains in the
oil market and a solid close in U.S. markets should see a positive open to the trading week this morning,»
said Rick Spooner, chief market
analyst at CMC M
analyst at CMC Markets.
«Rising domestic socioeconomic stresses in Russia — caused by dwindling
oil revenues and the impact of Western sanctions — will fuel President Putin's anti-western rhetoric and increase the likelihood of him seeking foreign «distractions»,» Alastair Newton, senior political
analyst at Nomura,
said in a note Wednesday.