Not exact matches
Add on the jumps in market - based
measures of inflation expectations, the chances
of more Federal Reserve hikes, and
other macro-economic data points and the moves for the economy have been dramatic.
On the
other side
of the mandate, the Fed's preferred
measure of inflation is below target at around 1.3 percent.
Measures of core
inflation remain close to 2 per cent as the effects
of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity continue to offset each
other.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort
of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion
of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period
of internal divergence as
measured by breadth and
other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as
measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk
of an oncoming recession, which would become more
of a factor if we observe a substantial widening
of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent
inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
A few
other things about
inflation that are a bit odd are the importance
of the goods and services that are included in the calculation basket (the UK's CPI
measure of inflation conspicuously omits housing costs for example).
This
measure has typically been more volatile than
other underlying
measures, for example showing a higher peak in
inflation (adjusted for the effects
of tax changes) in 2001.
The exclusion
of health services, as well as a number
of other services provided by the public sector, largely explains the relatively modest increase in the market goods and services excluding volatile items
measure of underlying
inflation over the past year.
For example, gravitational way is being a real solid test
of inflation, but over the last couple
of years, there have been a number
of other ideas studying these primordial seeds that John and his collaborators
measured.
For Term 2, 2018, it covers resource allocation, production possibility curves, market and mixed economic systems • demand and supply analysis • price elasticity • market failure • social and private costs and benefits, business organization, costs and revenue •, costs and revenue, competition,
inflation and deflation • employment and unemployment • GDP, economic growth and recession • GDP and
other measures of living standards etc..
Artificial
inflation is a term I recently coined to represent what is / was happening in Houston, and elsewhere (e.g., Tennessee), when district leaders (e.g., superintendents) mandate or force principals and
other teacher effectiveness appraisers or evaluators to align their observational ratings
of teachers» effectiveness with teachers» value - added scores, with the latter being (sometimes relentlessly) considered the «objective
measure» around which all
other measures (e.g., subjective observational
measures) should revolve, or align.
«Taking these together with pressures on
other costs, we forecast that school spending per pupil is likely to fall by around 8 % in real terms [based on a school - specific
measure of inflation] between 2014 - 15 and 2019 - 20,» the report says.
-
Measure tread depth - Correct tire
inflation pressure and reset TPC counter if applicable - Correct tire
inflation pressure in spare tire ENGINE COMPARTMENT - Perform visual inspection
of engine compartment - Check and replenish all
other fluid levels - Change engine oil and filter - Check engine cooling system, antifreeze and corrosion protection - Check hydraulic portion
of brake system - Check Active Body Control (ABC)- Check battery condition and service if necessary - Visually inspect trunk release catch and hinges - Check condition
of Poly - V belt and
other belts
The GPS models the relationship between rates
of core
inflation and a broad set
of economic indicators including
measures of slack,
inflation expectations, and
other inflation - related data such as business surveys and wages.
Interest rates, both nominal and real (i.e. after
inflation), are incredibly low, but
other measures of financial conditions are less benign.
Among
other measures, they examined the «success rate» (cases where the portfolio did not run out
of money) for different expected future return scenarios assuming 4 %
of the portfolio value (
inflation adjusted) is withdrawn annually for 30 years.
The
other preferred
measure for core
inflation, HICP less energy and unprocessed food, came in 1.1 % year - on - year, which is also still in - line with the ECB's 2017 forecast
of 1.1 %.
In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance
of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider
other information, including additional
measures of labor market conditions, indicators
of inflation pressures and
inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.
To be consistent with the practice
of other Federal agencies and the Department itself, we have determined that the CPI - U is the most appropriate
inflation measure to use to adjust the threshold debt amount.
As I said, this would be a simple fast
measure (not considering risk rating
of the bonds,
inflation and
other considerations).