Gavin writes «Paleo - climate constraints demonstrate that CC feedback even on really long time scales is not more than 100 ppmv / 6 deg C (i.e. 16 ppmv / deg C), and
over shorter time periods (i.e. Frank et al, 2010) it is more like 10 ppmv / deg C. Salby's sensitivity appears to be 10 times too large.»
The sensitivity he then derives is projected back using the 0.8 deg C warming over the 20th C. However, this is ludicrous — the sensitivity in the recent period can't be more than say, 1 ppmv per 0.1 deg C. Projected back you would have say a 10 ppmv (max) change over the 20th C. Paleo - climate constraints demonstrate that CC feedback even on really long time scales is not more than 100 ppmv / 6 deg C (i.e. 16 ppmv / deg C), and
over shorter time periods (i.e. Frank et al, 2010) it is more like 10 ppmv / deg C. Salby's sensitivity appears to be 10 times too large.
Spencer and Braswell stand; these observations from CERES satellites show strongly negative cloud feedback
over shorter time periods in the tropics.
Is there some way to get around process / parameter uncertainty
over shorter time periods?
By the way, Alan, if you find someone who can do the work, it is possible to test significance
over shorter time periods:
I don't think Cosmic Rays were ever as much about it [AGW], as say, what to do about it; if «it» were indeed happening, whether by anthropogenic causes or combinations or other field properties - nuclear power is NOT the way to go; humans will adapt and survive
over shorter time periods in climate than over the half - lives of nuclear fission byproducts.
``... humans will adapt and survive
over shorter time periods in climate than over the half - lives of nuclear fission byproducts.»
In fact, low price - book value stocks have underperformed high price - book value stocks
over shorter time periods.
Actual returns may be higher or lower than those assumed and may vary substantially
over shorter time periods.
While this risk doesn't impair Nike's long - term earnings power, it can still weigh on the stock
over shorter time periods.
They also seek to understand how natural fluctuations influence the picture
over shorter time periods.
But the study looked at departures from average conditions
over shorter time periods, and may not be a good indicator of how people will respond to sustained warming.
«Most pollinators visit several plant species over their lifetime, but often they will display what we call floral fidelity
over shorter time periods,» Brosi explains.
He notes that even «Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway lagged the S&P 500 in more than one - third of rolling three - year periods in the 25 years since 1987,» which, he says, is «something to keep in mind when trying to gauge manager skill
over shorter time periods.
A similar measure, «usual weekly earnings» of employed, full - time, wage and salary workers, tells much the same story, albeit
over a shorter time period.
-LSB-...] also important to remember that measuring performance
over short time periods (like months or quarters) might frustrate you.
In fact, the average return for stocks was 11.5 % vs. 7.5 % for bonds since the beginning of 1976.4 But performance
over short time periods highlights that stocks and bonds take different paths.
Like most gluten free things, they aren't very good after a couple days, they jut tend to break down in texture
over a short time period - so plan to eat them fast!
The impacts of motherhood will result in fundamental changes in your wife
over a short time period.
These samples augment other marine records such as coral and seashells, which provide detailed records
over a short time period, and deep - ocean sediments, which preserve thousands of years of history but are harder to date precisely.
(Female flies typically mate with multiple males
over a short time period.)
Shella Keilholz and her colleagues have been looking at functional connectivity data very closely, and how the apparent connections fluctuate
over short time periods.
Strength training using heavy resistance increases the ability of a muscle to generate force
over a short time period.
Low - carbohydrate advocates are masters of documenting the efficacy of their philosophy using studies with small population sizes conducted
over short time periods — often over weeks or months.
Although these studies were only performed
over a short time period, their results are encouraging.
If you can pay the full cost
over a short time period, such as 18 months, you may be able to use a credit card with an introductory 0 % APR on purchases to pay for the solar system without paying any interest at all.
The difference between an account earning compound interest and one that earns simple interest is generally not all that substantial
over short time periods.
It is common for stocks to fluctuate in price
over a short time period.
A little while ago, Bespoke Investment Group published two little pieces on the relationship between the yield curve and the absolute level of the S&P 500
over short time periods.
Despite the unpredictable nature of commodities
over short time periods, it's hard to identify any risks that could really threaten CN's long - term future.
So if you have many lenders and brokers pulling your report
over a short time period it could affect your score.
The values of junk bonds fluctuate more than those of high quality bonds and can decline significantly
over short time periods.
Pre-approvals will ding your credit score, but the hit won't be too bad if you complete several mortgage applications
over a short time period, like 30 to 45 days.
In other words, Winn will use this generous donation as a catalyst to raise additional funds
over a short time period (crowdfunding) and we hope to turn one research project into two or three studies on abdominal cancer.
They do not only mismatch the other data sets but are implausible in themselves, in requiring huge sea level jumps
over short time periods.
For variability on a long time scale, the effect is generally constant
over a short time period (such as Milankovitch cycles).
Over this shorter time period, sampling has been comprehensive enough to accurately estimate chlorophyll variability related to climate phenomena.
I pointed out to Lord Monckton that it's often very hard to tell an exponential from a linear trend
over a short time period, e.g., the 7 - year period shown in Fig. 2.
This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only
over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).
My work, over the period 1992 to the present, has led to my belief that much of climate change (by whatever parameter or measure one uses) tends to occur very largely as step (or at least very rapid) changes, often
over short time periods, like a few months or less.
Your comment on error bars
over short time periods makes sense, but the UAH record would tell us that 21st century total warming would be around 1C, if past trends continue (and that was the point I wanted to make).
Evolution is not just for the long - term — natural selection also goes on
over short time periods.
If we miss the 2015 deadline, atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise and we have to cut back even more steeply,
over a shorter time period, to avoid runaway climate change.
************** «witchtistics»: use of a «witch stick» (eg, least squares regression) to «divine» the global temperature temperature trend (or other climatological trends)
over short time periods.
Your «standstill» here is just the fact that one can't statistically detect a warming trend in the mentioned temperature anomaly
over the short time period of the recent decade.
Trends
over short time periods in noisy data are very noisy.
I find this assertion interesting, as it is often claimed that natural variability can mask global warming
over short time periods.
Despite this higher cumulative total, the green curve has a higher peak warming than the yellow curve because its emissions are put into the atmosphere
over a shorter time period.
In other words, climate describes phenomena observed over long time periods, such as decades and centuries, while weather is observed
over short time periods, such as days and weeks.
«A reduction in the rate of warming (not a pause) is a result of short - term natural variability, ocean absorption of heat from the atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, a downward phase of the 11 - year solar cycle, and other impacts
over a short time period,» Cleugh says.