You can also rested assured that, back in September, when I first posted the NODC OHC data and noted the anomalous 1995/96 rise in Tropical
Pacific OHC, I used another dataset that reaches well below the 700 meter level to verify it.
The following graph also includes tropical
Pacific OHC.
As is typical, in your most recent reply, you offered conjecture with respect to the 1995/96 rise in tropical
Pacific OHC when you wrote, «One doesn't need to postulate a transfer of warm water from another basin.
And I believe I was quite clear on which specific La Nina events raised tropical
Pacific OHC.
But you suggested that the 1995/96 rise in Tropical
Pacific OHC may have come from below the 700 meter level, when you wrote, «After all a slightly less cold upwelling entering the ENSO process from below would manifest itself in warming at the surface (and vice versa) and that would help to account for the apparent disjunction between the strengths of the La Nina and El Nino phases in your article.»
Will you respond by documenting your conjecture about the 1995/96 rise in tropical
Pacific OHC, Stephen?
Stephen Wilde: I asked, «Will you respond by documenting your conjecture about the 1995/96 rise in tropical
Pacific OHC, Stephen?»
The rise in tropical
Pacific OHC was not caused by a transfer of warm waters from another basin, Stephen.
Note in the above graph how tropical
Pacific OHC rises during the La Nina events of 1995/96 and 1998/99/00 / 01.
The modern rate of
Pacific OHC change is, however, the highest in the past 10,000 years (Fig. 4 and table S3).»
There's no evidence of an anthropogenic signal in the source of fuel for ENSO, which is the tropical
Pacific OHC.
Not exact matches
It is also interesting to note the relationship between Australias warmth and the record
OHC in the Indo
Pacific Warm Pool.
As Bob Tisdale has found, the
OHC and SST of a large area of the
Pacific has been stable over the last thirty years.
The solar decrease explaining 21st century
OHC standstill but GHG rise being inconsistent with
OHC especially in the
Pacific and Atlantic.
The thing is, the heat being lost from the 0 - 700m layer to below 700m and to the Indian Ocean from both the
Pacific and Atlantic is not being replenished from above the surface in any way because 0 - 700m
OHC is falling in both the
Pacific and Atlantic.
The only two ocean basins with major increases in
OHC during the ARGO era are the South Atlantic and the Indian Oceans, while the North Atlantic, Arctic, and South
Pacific Oceans show significant declines in
OHC.
I have illustrated and document that there are multiyear aftereffects of ENSO events that cause the positive trends in SST and TLT anomalies outside of the tropical
Pacific, and I have shown that the rise in global
OHC, when broken down into logical ocean basin subsets, is dominated by natural variables.
And here's a graph of the
OHC for the mid-to-high latitudes of the South
Pacific.
Oddly, the latent and sensible heat flux that has warmed the troposphere so nicely in 2014 has not been focused on the area of the
Pacific where El Ninos occur, but has been in other regions of the planet, with record
OHC on a global basis.
I showed that the height of the water column of the tropical
Pacific reflected the same rise as the 1995/96
OHC, countering your inference that a pocket of warm water rose up from below the 700 meter depth in the tropical
Pacific.
But to counter your doubts, here's a graph of the
OHC for the mid-to-high latitudes of the North
Pacific.
Regarding your PS: You wrote, «I share however Stephen Wilde's reservation on the accuracy of the heat budget data — how well do we know
Pacific, let alone global,
OHC?»
From the paper: Over the whole globe, the dominant spatial mode of variability in
OHC in the upper 300 m [as shown by the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF), which explains the most variance], occurs mainly in the tropical
Pacific and has the structure of ENSO variability (Fig. 4, A and B).
There are numerous papers about the shift in sea level pressure and it's impacts on sea surface temperature on the North
Pacific, but I've never seen a paper about its impacts on
OHC there.