Essentially, in my opinion the Best
Picture race currently comes down to a battle of the biggest blocks in the Academy: the Actors branch and the combined below - the - line branches (Costumes, Cinematography, Production Design, etc.).
Not exact matches
All three films are obviously going to be players in the Oscar
race, but we're
currently uncertain as to what extent they'll factor into the overall
picture.
There isn't a whole lot that pundits can agree up on in regards to the Oscar
race right now, but one thing seems to be that Spotlight is the one to beat
currently in Best
Picture.