Nikolov N, Zeller K (2017) New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical
Planetary Temperature Model.
Not exact matches
Our evaluation of a fossil fuel emissions limit is not based on climate
models but rather on observational evidence of global climate change as a function of global
temperature and on the fact that climate stabilization requires long - term
planetary energy balance.
The key points of the paper are that: i)
model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air
temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied
planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
You typed: «Planets with a thin atmosphere and insignificant greenhouse effect, on the other hand, have a surface
temperature that is close the the estimates from the
planetary energy balance
model (Figure 3).»
Planets with a thin atmosphere and insignificant greenhouse effect, on the other hand, have a surface
temperature that is close the the estimates from the
planetary energy balance
model (Figure 3).»
Next N&Z because their «miracle»
model for
planetary temperatures is complete bullshit (and we'll see what they have to say about DALR after Jelbring isn't there any more as a crutch).
And experiments aside, we have scores of empirical observations of rising
temperatures, tropospheric lapse rates, energy flux measurements at the top of the atmosphere,
modelling experiments, observations of other
planetary bodies (Venus is an excellent example of what happens when CO2 concentrations rise well beyond the point of spectral saturation) that all support the greenhouse theory of atmospheres.
Some
modelling has shown geoengineering could be effective at reducing the Earth's
temperature, but manipulation of sensitive
planetary systems in one area of the world could also result in drastic unintended consequences globally, such as radically disrupted rainfall.
The article disputes using blackbody
modeling, in total, for calculating
planetary surface
temperatures.
For instance, given the physics of sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere (short wave reflectors, long wave absorbers), it would be surprising if putting in the aerosols seen during the Pinatubo eruption did not reduce the
planetary temperature while warming the stratosphere in the
model.
It means that, for every W m $ ^ -LCB--2 -RCB- $ of excess energy we put into our system, our
model predicts that the surface
temperature must increase by $ -1 / \ lambda = 0.3 $ K in order to re-establish
planetary energy balance.