Zhang Y., L. Wu, M. Scheuerer, J. Schaake and C. Kongoli (November 2017): Comparison of Probabilistic Quantitative
Precipitation Forecasts from Two Postprocessing Mechanisms.
Feedback from this office indicated that the 2:19 a.m. Suomi NPP SFR image (Figure 2) matched ground - based observations better than
the precipitation forecast from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), a NOAA weather forecast model, within this data - sparse region.
The latest
precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over eight inches of rain over coastal New England.»
Not exact matches
As you can see
from this helpful AccuWeather radar
forecast for the greater Chicago area, a fair bit of
precipitation is currently heading toward Wrigley Field.
Weather
forecast models, for example, include dozens of parameters
from temperature and
precipitation to wind speed and lightning.
The certainty of the
forecasts is particularly important as warming leads to shifts
from temperate to subtropical drylands, which leads to changes in
precipitation and soil moisture, which in turn has profound effects on ecological services, provided to humanity, including the viability of certain temperate agricultural systems.
To check their model
forecast, as the dry season has gotten underway, the researchers have compared their initial
forecast with observations coming in
from NASA's
precipitation satellite missions» multisatellite datasets, as well as groundwater data
from the joint NASA / German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission.
The
forecast will include details like temperature,
precipitation, humidity and wind speed for the place
from where the search has been initiated or for a different location if the relevant name or zip code is included in the search.
And while that might make sense for the current situation, it is much harder to understand for
forecasts one week out (where the chance of
precipitation might change
from 80 % to 40 % to 20 % to 60 % in a one - hour span for a period six days in the future).
There are no mean rate
precipitation fields - the
precipitation fields are accumulated
from the beginning of the
forecast for + step hours.
Values of
precipitation come
from a sequence of 12 - hour background
forecasts.
NOAA's
precipitation forecast for the next five days puts over five inches of rain on a very large stretch of real estate
from the Mid-Atlantic up to northern Maine:
The latest dynamical model
forecasts are calling for well above average
precipitation throughout California during the January - March period, and the recent
forecasts from the CFS model have shifted towards a wet December as well.
Here are some examples: # 1) «A Parallel Nonnegative Tensor Factorization Algorithm for Mining Global Climate Data» http://www.springerlink.com/content/u4x12132j06r40h3/ (
from LNCS - Lecture Notes in Computer Science) # 2) «Dowinscaling of
precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach» http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/18799/ (Journal Of Hydrology) # 3) «Semi-supervised learning with data calibration for long - term time series
forecasting» http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1401911 (Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining Journal) There are tons that I can quoted, but the 3 references that I have linked to above clarifies my point.
Worse yet, the snow on the ground — by lowering air temperatures several degrees — increases the likelihood that
precipitation from forthcoming storms, like the one
forecast for Friday, will tend toward the frozen variety.
Which is a bit strange considering a report
from the European Environment Agency showing that temperatures in the Alps are increasing a twice rate of the global average with more droughts and greater seasonal variability in
precipitation forecast.
From gentle spring showers to full - blown rainstorms, it's likely there'll be some sort of
precipitation in the
forecast.