It is a perfect resource for
Probability equal outcomes.
Not exact matches
If you want a laugh
equal to your fear check out present day dollars return for your portfolio with an upside
probability equal to the negative
outcome you are offsetting; it is crazy large.
The
probability of winning a roll of the dice, for example, is
equal to the proportion of winning
outcomes relative to all possible ones.
The
outcome of a given division is unpredictable, but in homeostasis the
probabilities of producing two progenitor and two differentiating daughters are the same, so that on average,
equal numbers of progenitors and differentiating cells are produced across whole population of progenitors.
As journalist Louis Menand put it, «The experts performed worse than they would have if they had simply assigned an
equal probability to all three
outcomes... Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world, in other words, are poorer forecasters than dart - throwing monkeys.»
Under Cardano's theory of fair gambling devices,
equal numerical values are assigned to the
probabilities of the ways in which an
outcome can occur in a game of chance.
That is, the kurtosis of the model output would be flat, meaning pretty much
equal probability of any
outcome.
Should one ignore the very high
probability of «
equal = no - change» or «better than»
outcomes?
The Wikipedia definition of the likelihood function is reasonable: the likelihood of a set of parameter values given some observed
outcomes is
equal to the
probability [density] of those observed
outcomes given those parameter values.
If Monte Carlo analysis were done on the climate models, I am sure that what we would see is pretty much
equal probability for any
outcome — ie flat kurtosis.
If we assume two complementary hypotheses H0 and H1, an experimental
outcome O, know P (O H0) and P (O H1), and have an assumed prior
probability ratio P (H0) / P (H1), we can calculate the posterior
probability as follows: P (H0 O) / P (H1 O) = (P (O H0) / P (O H1)-RRB-(P (H0) / P (H1)-RRB- Take logs to convert that multiplication to an addition log (P (H0 O) / P (H1 O)-RRB- = log (P (O H0) / P (O H1)-RRB- + log (P (H0) / P (H1)-RRB- and we interpret this as the confidence in H0 over H1 after the observation is
equal to the evidence inherent in the result of the experiment plus our confidence before the observation.