Public bettors often back top - ranked teams following this type of loss using a «bounce back» theory.
Public bettors often overreact to blowouts, winning streaks and against - the - spread (ATS) streaks, and consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results.
Top - 25 rankings are just based off of the opinions of a group of people, but
public bettors often take them too seriously.
Not exact matches
With an influx of casual
bettors entering the market,
public money has a more significant impact on line movement, which
often creates artificially inflates lines that can be exploited by contrarian
bettors.
You are also getting good numbers because
public perception
often inflates lines, giving brave contrarian
bettors an extra half point or full point for free.
Although sharper
bettors may
often place larger bets on the dogs, it will be beneficial in the long run for dogs to hit at a higher rate in order to combat the overwhelming
public support on favorites.
Most
public bettors still tend to back favorites, and when mixed with the unpredictability of the bowl season, unpopular underdogs tend to cover more
often than not.
Unders (which are less popular) are hitting more
often than not, especially in games with higher totals — which
often garner tons of over bets from
public bettors.
It isn't
often that
public and sharper
bettors are both on an underdog like this during the regular season, but trendy dogs do seem to pop up more
often in the NCAA Tournament.
Public bettors are
often drawn to the Cubs to win the World Series and oddsmakers knew that Chicago had a strong, deep organization in terms of youth players so that price made sense.
This goes to show you that the
public often overvalues star players and that sharp
bettors can capitalize by not overreacting to an injury.
Much like our betting against the
public philosophy, this
often creates contrarian value for opportunistic
bettors.
That means contrarian
bettors can
often get free points by simply going against the grain and fading the
public.
As we
often see when two top ranked teams face off,
public bettors have been more than happy to take Michigan State and the points.
This
often causes sportsbooks to shade their opener to account for
public money, which can create value for contrarian
bettors.
Although
public money on the Cubs
often allows
bettors to take their opponent at an inflated price, that's not the case this evening.
When the spread is less than three - points,
bettors often gravitate towards the moneyline, and we have seen similar one - sided
public betting on the Steelers to win straight up.
Often times
public bettors shy away from betting the draw, which is why you'll usually see betting percentages very lopsided on the favorite.
This will
often allow shrewd contrarian
bettors to get free points based purely on
public perception.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check back
often.
It will be constantly updated to reflect major line moves,
public betting trends, sharp money indicators (action from professional
bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and any other relevant betting analysis so please check back
often.
In an attempt to confirm this theory, the first step was determining how
often a majority of
bettors have taken the favorite using the
public betting trends from our seven contributing sportsbooks.
They lack nationwide fan bases, have lost more
often than not, and are largely ignored by
public bettors.
Often bargains can be found on series plays where you're laying -400 or greater, since these types of bets mainly attract underdog money from
public bettors.
Why the
public loves OKC: The Thunder have been a
public favorite all season because of the talent packed into their starting five, but, since
bettors often make decisions based on the last thing they see, today's
public support is probably due in large part to their impressive win in Houston on Saturday.
These line moves in primetime games are
often the results of
public bettors overreacting to a piece of information (injury / suspension).