Road favorites have contributed +19 units, but at a slightly higher
ROI than road dogs.
Not exact matches
As you can see from the screenshot below,
road teams are also undervalued on the moneyline although the -2.3 %
ROI was worse
than the -0.4 %
ROI in our spread system.
For our spread system,
road teams receiving no more
than 30 % of public bets have gone 429 - 353 (54.9 %) with +55.71 units won and a 7.1 %
ROI.
According to our BetLabs software,
road teams receiving less
than 20 % of moneyline wagers have gone 100 - 136 on the year, which is good for +14.87 units and a 6.3 % return on investment (
ROI).
It was also interesting to note that although their winning percentage was much higher at home (59.7 %)
than on the
road (50.2 %), the
ROI is nearly identical (4.3 % vs. 4.1 % respectively).
-- As we wrote in a recent article,
road underdogs receiving less
than 35 % of moneyline wagers have gone 76 - 104 (+24.35 units, 13.5 %
ROI) since 2005.
Although betting every
road dog during the preseason is barely profitable (290 - 278 ATS, +0.96 units), this simple addition causes our return on investment (
ROI) to more
than quadruple from 3.9 % to 17.1 %.