Recent climate change predictions produced by the latest bleeding - edge computer models have proven to be spectacularly wrong.
Not exact matches
A controversial
prediction that found its way into the most
recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change said they'd be gone by 2035, but a detailed new analysis contradicts it.
The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, addresses a longstanding paradox between
predictions of widespread extinctions of cold - water species and a general lack of evidence for those extinctions despite decades of
recent climate change.
These are the erroneous
predictions ascribed to the most
recent report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)-- a document reviewed by some 2,500 scientists and other experts as well as vetted by more than 190 countries.
These
predictions are limited by a poor understanding of the
recent changes observed in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a lack of knowledge about the variability of ice sheet behaviour under a warming
climate.
«In the face of natural variability and complexity, the consequences of
change in any single factor, for example greenhouse gas emissions, can not readily be isolated, and
prediction becomes difficult... Scientific uncertainties continue to limit our ability to make objective, quantitative determinations regarding the human role in
recent climate change, or the degree and consequence of future
change.»
Comparing model
predictions of GHG - induced warming with
recent natural temperature fluctuations also indicates the potential scale of man - made
climate change.Early modelling experiments focused on the total long - term
change resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
There has been a
recent emphasis in decadal - scale
prediction, and also creating a marriage between
climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition
change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the
climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.
Comparisons to the most
recent data consistently finds that
climate change is occurring more rapidly and intensely than indicated by IPCC
predictions.
The researchers used
recent historical data and not
climate modeling, so the study does not make any future
predictions, but Swain says the findings appear to be consistent with other
climate research that reveals there is little
change in average precipitation, but an increase in the amount of very wet or very dry periods.
In fact, Eilperin breathlessly reports the new report «highlights the extent to which
recent scientific assessments have outstripped the
predictions issued by the Nobel Prize - winning U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change in 2007.»
Past IPCC
predictions regarding
climate change and global warming have become an international joke in
recent years.
Issues like the Medieval warm period, different possible causes of
climate change (such as solar activity, or even the nature of our
climate), studies indicating the last interglacial period was warmer than today, and the failure of
recent dire
predictions about the
climate all show the debate on
climate change is not nearly as settled as many global warming proponents would have us believe.
The simulations also produce an average increase of 2.0 °C in twenty - first century global temperature, demonstrating that
recent observational trends are not sufficient to discount
predictions of substantial
climate change and its significant and widespread impacts.
Aerosol impacts remain a source of major uncertainty in
climate prediction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002
climate prediction in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002
Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5
Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002 --RRB-.
More usefully in terms of future
predictions, a
recent paper in PNAS by Van Vuuren and co-workers (including a friend of mine, Tom Wigley, who is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Adelaide), assessed the impact on
climate change of some plausible real - world actions.