Recent weak economic data have confirmed everyone's worst fears: The global economy is indeed decelerating.
Not exact matches
To be sure, the most
recent economic data argue for a stronger currency, not a
weaker one.
Bill Hester notes that going back as far as Depression era
data, that same behavior coupled with a rich Shiller P / E (anything above the mid-teens) and a preponderance of daily declines in
recent data (say down 11 days out of 14) has preceded even worse outcomes - particularly in the context of a
weak economic backdrop.
As for U.S.
data, the broad aggregate continues to come in
weaker than expected, with a
recent downturn in a broad basket of national and regional
economic surveys, and of course, a disappointing April unemployment report (avoiding a negative print, however, which I suspect will come in the May report).
Global
economic conditions have improved over
recent months, with stronger
economic data emerging in the US, Japan and most other countries in east Asia, though the euro area remains
weak.
As my colleague Russ Koesterich points out in a
recent post,
economic data was mixed over the first quarter, with sluggish
economic growth, a soft jobs report and
weak manufacturing reports leading to diminishing consensus around company earnings.
The problems are compounded by
recent economic data that has suggested the first quarter will end on a
weak note.