Sentences with phrase «recent weather model»

Recent weather model forecasts are suggesting that we may have to keep an eye on the central Pacific — not only the east Pacific — for re-curving storms this autumn (which is not something I can recall having happened before).

Recent weather model trends have increased the chances of the first, shore - hugging scenario.

Not exact matches

Many recent events - discoveries from sediment cores in New York, drought in Australia and the western United States, data from increasingly sophisticated computer models - lead to a conclusion that the weather driving many of the globe's great breadbaskets will become hotter, drier and more unpredictable.

The empirical relationships developed by Cohen and colleagues do a far superior job than current dynamical models in predicting recent wintertime weather.

Good recent articles in the Guardian and at ClimateCentral on Arctic ice modeling and on Arctic ice loss effects on weather.

While this methodology doesn't eliminate your point that the trends from different periods in the observed record (or from different observed datasets) fall at various locations within our model - derived 95 % confidence range (clearly they do), it does provide justification for using the most recent data to show that sometimes (including currently), the observed trends (which obviously contain natural variability, or, weather noise) push the envelop of model trends (which also contain weather noise).

Nearly invariably they are quickly revealed as being on scene purely to grind away at the particular topic du jour they've been fed elsewhere, be it the eldritch but still occasionally visible «we can't even predict the weather so how can we model climate» to the more recent «cosmic rays are overwhelming CO2» canard.

Scientists have suspected that pollution from airborne dust and soot play a role in cloud development, but a recent pairing of observed weather data along with computer modeling confirms it.

That's easy to do with the year 1300, but lately there's been some evidence to suggest that, because the actual climate has spent the entire 21st century refusing to follow the alarmist models and broil the planet, NOAA and NASA have had to resort to cooling the recent past - ie, not the pre-thermometer millennium - old past but the weather - station recorded - temperature living - memory past.

Despite 700 years of these natural extreme weather swings, Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh blames recent swings on global warming stating, «This is exactly what state - of - the - art climate models predicted should have happened, and what those models project to intensify in the future as global warming continues.»

For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent changes in land surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures and atmospheric temperatures and deep sea temperatures and sea ice extent and sea ice volume and sea ice density and moisture content in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.

However, for regional downscaling (and global) models to add value (beyond what is available to the impacts community via the historical, recent paleorecord and a worst case sequence of days), they must be able to skillfully predict changes in regional weather statistics in response to human climate forcings.

In other words, according to the most recent models, within four or five decades one might begin to regularly expect typical April weather beginning around February.

Recent work (e.g., Hurrell 1995, 1996; Thompson and Wallace 1998; Corti et al., 1999) has suggested that the observed warming over the last few decades may be manifest as a change in frequency of these naturally preferred patterns (Chapters 2 and 7) and there is now considerable interest in testing the ability of climate models to simulate such weather regimes (Chapter 8) and to see whether the greenhouse gas forced runs suggest shifts in the residence time or transitions between such regimes on long time - scales.

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them.

I'm not eliding weather modeling and decadal forcing processes that interact with the hydrosphere — palaeoclimate reflects everything, radiative forcing included, but it remains arguably worse understood, and hence harder to backcast than recent climate.

In a recent op - ed in the Washington Post, James Hansen at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York blamed climate change for excessive drought, based on six decades of measurements, not computer models: «Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change.