On the other hand it's true that not seeing
a red crow reduces their likelihood, if that happens under conditions, where crows might be seen, but what kind of tulips we see at the same time has no influence.
For all possible distributions generated in this way, finding a red tulip doesn't change the probability for the observer of finding
a red crow.
As to your other point, that the red tulip might change, I agree that if the red tulip mysteriously changes within a few weeks into
a red crow, then my argument applies only to the current state of crow color.
Not even one week later, Operation
Red Crow, a huge content update for the game, was released with two new playable characters and a new map.
Rainbow Six Siege DLC Operation
Red Crow released on November 17th, and Ubisoft says they've got plenty more plans for the game.
Ubisoft has announced that Operation
Red Crow, the fourth major update for Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege will be available on November 17 for Xbox One, Sony Playstation 4 and PC.
Rainbow Six: Seige has recently received the Operation
Red Crow DLC along with Patch 5.0 (details of these can be found here) but Ubisoft are already looking ahead to patch 5.2.
In Operation
Red Crow, the Skyscraper map is perched high above the streets of Nagoya, Japan, where Operators have to neutralize an organized crime threat within a Yakuza - filled mansion.
Four content releases have dropped for the game over the past year, with the fourth arriving on November 17 in the form of Operation
Red Crow.
New maps, operators and a host of improvements have kept players invested in Rainbow Six Siege for almost a year now, and it looks like Ubisoft is almost ready to reveal the game's final piece of DLC, titled Operation
Red Crow.
To promote Operation
Red Crow, Ubisoft also announced that Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege will be available for free from November 11 to 13, for the first time on PlayStation 4, as well as on PC via Uplay and Steam.
Starring Kevin Costner (Lieutenant Dunbar), Mary McDonnell (Stands With A Fist), Graham Greene (Kicking Bird), Rodney A. Grant (Wind In His Hair), Floyd «
Red Crow» Westerman (Ten Bears), Tantoo Cardinal (Black Shawl), Robert Pastorelli (Timmons), Charles Rocket (Lieutenant Elgin), Maury Chaykin (Major Fambrough) and Wes Studi (Toughest Pawnee).
It would in fact reduce the probability of
red crows because it would increase the probability that all crows are black, blue, green, etc., or any color but red, and since all probabilities must add to 1,
red crows become less probable.
Seeing any red object has two effects that compensate exactly the influence on the existence of
red crows: The observation reduces the expected share of crows among all red objects, but it also increases the expected number of all red objects leaving the likelihood of
red crows unchanged.
Thus making an observation on the subset of red tulips changes both our knowledge on the subset of red tulips and the union, but leaves the knowledge on the subset of
red crows unchanged.
The first problem is the real world problem, where red tulips and
red crows are separate independent issues.
We all have the right intuition on this problem: Because there is no physical connection between
red crows and red tulips, no observation on red tulips has any slightest influence on the number or probabilities of
red crows.
Without artificial constraints that are not true for real world observations seeing red tulips has absolutely no connection to the existence of
red crows.
Then every observation of non-crows would provide a very small additional evidence against the existence of
red crows, but seeing a red tulip in real life has of course nothing to do with crows of any color.
Not exact matches
The Sun are
crowing about the latter today, claiming in their usually understated fashion that the
Red Devils defender could miss the first four matches of the Premier League season, lose the England captain's armband, see his girlfriend walk out on him, see him lose his job and find himself working on a fruit and veg stall in East Ham.
-- one would think the club would have had to eat
crow when transfer deadline day passed and Coutinho was still (nominally, at least) wearing Merseyside
Red.
Since time immemorial the
red half of Merseyside have been
crowing about their 18 league titles.
Prophet Emmanuel Osei is alleged to have littered the main junction of of the Bechem town with dead doves,
crows and vultures with
red bands around their necks.
White
Crow American Flag Tank Alternative Speckled Tank Topshop Dress Show Me Your Mumu Crop Modcloth Pineapple Dress Madewell Cutout Dress Monroe and Harlow Turban
RED Valentino Romper Ralph Lauren Denim and Supply Dress
Notable Canada Bars & Club Date Spots: Food & Liquor in Toronto, Ontario; Noble in Halifax, Nova Scotia; The Shameful Tiki Room in Toronto, Ontario; The Roost Social House in Winnipeg, Manitoba; The Tannery in Fredericton, New Brunswick; NWT Brewing Company in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories; EXP Restaurant + Bar in Vancouver, British Columbia; The Storm
Crow Tavern in Vancouver, British Columbia; Cilantro and Chive in Lacombe, Alberta; Wild Rose Brewery in Calgary, Alberta; Track & Field in Toronto, Ontario; Big In Japan in Montreal, Quebec; El Caballito in Toronto, Ontario; Le Saint Sulpice in Montreal, Quebec; Miss Things in Toronto, Ontario; Serve Ping Pong in Hamilton, Ontario; To The Lost in
Red Deer, Alberta; The Split
Crow Pub in Halifax, Nova Scotia; Skin + Bones in Toronto, Ontario; Big Bad John's in Victoria, British Columbia; Parts & Labour in Toronto, Ontario; Blind Tiger Coffee Co. in Winnipeg, Manitoba; Grey Tiger in Toronto, Ontario; Union Local 613 in Ottawa, Ontario; and Bartari Videogame Restaurant & Bar in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.
crowed screenwriter Colin Welland from the Oscar stage in 1982, hoisting aloft his just - awarded awarded statuette for «Chariots of Fire» — and anticipating one of the bigger upsets in the history of the Best Picture race, as the modest British sports drama upended Warren Beatty's grand political epic «
Reds.»
A
red polka - dotted scarf slips off one to then appear tied smugly around the neck of the predator cat, licking her disappointed paws as she calls, «Bye,
crows, bye!»
The Booktrust Best Book Awards with Amazon Kindle shortlist is announced today with Nosy
Crow heading up the technology category with their reworking of Little
Red Riding Hood and Axel Scheffler's animal mix and match picture book Flip Flap Farm.
The prep pad only shows so much of the «living» activity happening around you, and in many occasions, those blinking
red dots are nothing but carefree
crows or rats.
Dance under leaping frogs and past black
crows as you collect musical notes and
red roses for bonuses.
Being the people that brought fan favourite character
Crow to life in The Longest Journey and its sequel Dreamfall, it's safe to say that Dag Scheve & Ragnar Tørnquist of
Red Thread Games know a thing or two about charming and majestic animals.
Click here to see photos from the exhibit and opening Wendy
Red Star's work layers influences drawn from her tribal background (
Crow), daily surroundings, aesthetic experiences, collected ephemera and conjured histories that are both real and imagined.
Wendy
Red Star's work layers influences drawn from her tribal background (
Crow), daily surroundings, aesthetic experiences, collected ephemera and conjured histories that are both real and imagined.
Through her photographs and sculpture new universes are built, simultaneously urban - rural and high - low with their own language of symbols created from such seemingly disparate sites as HUD houses, rez cars, three legged dogs, powwow culture, proliferative indigenous commoditization, and
Red Star's personal collection of memories growing up as a half - breed on the
Crow Indian reservation.
On view from January 26 through March 16, 2018, this site - specific exhibition visually materialized and meshed memories of the past and present in
Red Star's investigation of her Apsáalooke (
Crow) Indian father's life in rock music, a site of familial importance and popular culture that has informed the artist's practice and individual and collective identities as an Apsáalooke (
Crow)- Irish American woman.
That said,
Red Star pays tribute to her father in this exhibition, and she uses her interdisciplinary art practice to show audiences how the concept of rock music, as a universal language, has the power to cut across very diverse social groups, like the members of the «The Maniacs» who were, and are, also members of the Apsáalooke (
Crow) tribe.
In this exhibition,
Red Star will use family photographs, written notes, and sculptural environments to map twenty - five years of her father's musical involvements, culminating with the story of The Maniacs, her dad's 1960s - 70s all -
Crow Indian rock band that played in both the Marine Corps and local to the band's home in south - central Montana in «
Crow Country,» or the
Crow reservation near the town of Pryor.
The Maniacs, known colloquially as the
Crow Tribe's «The Beatles,» both positively influenced the
Crow people through their indigenized pop expression and also made an impact on non-Native audiences — a set of conditions akin to
Red Star's art practice that is persistently entangled with concepts of pop internationalities and the culture industry.
As a guest lecturer selected by students to participate in the Paul Brach Visiting Artist Lecture Series at the California Institute of the Arts, NACF Program Associate Wendy
Red Star (
Crow) made studio visits and offered a motivational message to...
The highlight of the year was Janet Cardiff's The Murder of the
Crows, an overwhelming installation of over 200 speakers at various heights, progressing through a 29 minute cycle of symphonic movements ranging from the
Red Army march to dream - like sonatas.
Raised on the Apsáalooke (
Crow) reservation in Montana,
Red Star's work is informed both by her cultural heritage and her engagement with photography, sculpture, video, fiber art, and performance.
Wendy
Red Star, Round Hall Float, 2014, slide of
Crow Fair parade at
Crow Agency in the 1970s, archival pigment print.
Wendy
Red Star, Grandmother & Parade Corvette, 2014, slide of
Crow Fair parade at
Crow Agency in the 1970s, archival pigment print.
Red Star's exhibition features found photographs and family snapshots arranged as a historical to present - day timeline of
Crow Fair over the decades.
Wendy
Red Star, Yakima Nation Youth Activities, 2014, slide of
Crow Fair parade at
Crow Agency in the 1970s, archival pigment print.
Accompanying these photographs,
Red Star has arranged parade regalia — shawls, beadwork, elk tooth dresses, and blankets — handmade by her relatives and other
Crow tribe members.
Wendy
Red Star, Nez Perce War 1877 - 1977, 2014, slide of
Crow Fair parade at
Crow Agency in the 1970s, archival pigment print.
That is why seeing a
red tulip now reduces the probability that some future
crow will be non-black simply by virtue of reducing the probability that some current
crow is non-black.
Ok, let's impose a pattern — say, every third
crow is
red.
We wouldn't be able to specify P values or to know how many non-black objects remain unobserved, but every time we saw a
red (or otherwise non-black) tulip (or other form of non-crow), we will know that we have increased the P value for all
crows being black.