C - ROADS's BAU or
Reference Scenario case is based on the A1FI SRES scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Not exact matches
«This work was a foundational
reference case for the recently released RCP4.5 model
scenario, one of four
scenarios that will be used by modeling groups around the globe to make realistic projections of future climate change,» said Dr. Steven J. Smith, scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland, and lead research author.
After having assimilated the
case or
reference, the player faces more complex situations that add steps on top of the initial winning play
scenario.
The latest relevant ABARE publication («Economic impact of climate change policy», ABARE Research Report 06 - 7) says that global CO2 emissions in its
reference case closely follow those under the IPCC's A2
scenario to 2030 and that the latter
scenario assumes a decline in economic growth after that year (pps.
In addition to the Base Policy
case, EIA's analysis includes several sensitivity
cases encompassing different interpretations or implementations of the proposed rule as well as a
scenario in which further emissions reductions are required beyond 2030, all of which use the AEO2015
Reference case as their baseline.
In many
cases, US coal companies relied upon the EIA
Reference Case, which is a
scenario projection of current business - as - usual trends over a 20 - 30 year period, assuming no new policies, regulatory interventions, or disruptive technological developments.
The difference between the
reference case, no national program and each of the policy
scenarios is shown in Table 3.
The IPM model results for the
scenarios are compared to a
reference case so the results are consistent.
The energy system
reference cases used for future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways in climate change research are a
case in point: baseline emission
scenarios commonly project levels of coal combustion many times higher than current reserve estimates by the year 2100.
Most of the Baseline
Scenario inputs were based on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) 2016 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) «
Reference Case» fuels consumption forecast and the New York and New England Independent System Operator's electricity forecasts.
Additional investment needs in IRENA's low carbon
scenario from 20150 to 2050, compared to a
reference case of current and planned policies and expected market developments.
Comparison with the (non 2 °C compliant) EIA AEO
Reference case implies that new leases will enter meaningful production in 2031 under a BAU
scenario.
The research team investigated the impacts of three different climate
scenarios in comparison to a
reference case on air quality in the United States.
Imaginatively illustrated and extensively
referenced, this short piece by Murray, who narrates the story as an animated stick figure, takes us through a worst -
case scenario of future climate change — from mass species extinctions all the way to famine and war.
The paper applies a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)[1] sensitivity analysis across three
scenarios: the 2016
reference case scenario, an updated 2016
scenario and a 2020 2 ˚C pathway setting, where investment decisions take into account decarbonisation trends.
For example, typical plant utilisation rates used by industry in
reference case scenarios are around 80 % for coal and 60 % for gas.
(2) U.S. emissions in the EIA
Reference Case are very similar to those in the IEA's Current Policies
Scenario.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA)
reference case scenario, illustrates that the demand for new electricity generating capacity doesn't reach 2013 levels until about 2025.
U.S. emissions in the EIA
Reference Case are very similar to those in the IEA's Current Policies
Scenario.
In fact a comparison with other IEA
scenarios puts the EIA
Reference Case in line with at least 5 degrees C of warming, a level of warming that would likely mean disaster for global civilization.
[6] The Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy forecasts in their Annual Energy Outlook 2010 that 2020 fossil CO2 emissions in the US will be 3.2 % lower than they were in 2005, this under a
reference case (i.e., a business - as - usual
scenario) in which the United States does not enact national climate policy.
And since we can never know what the cost of a hypothetical
reference case would be, and since we must proceed with a robust mitigation
scenario, we will never be able to determine the net economic benefits of mitigating climate change, even in hindsight.
I would like to discuss the effect of two
scenarios: The International Energy Agency's 2011 «New Policies
Scenario» (IEA 2011a), as updated in IEA's 2012 «Facing China's Coal Future», which is available HERE, and the US Energy Information Agency's «International Energy Outlook 2011
Reference Case» (IEO2011), available HERE.
With
reference to Stephen Schneider's The worst -
case scenario, my readings of recent geology research suggests that the actual worst
case is a replay of the oceanic anoxic events (nice summary that extends the wiki article) that appear to be associated not only with most mass extinctions in the geologic record, but also with the conditions permitting the deposition of most petroleum source rocks.
A
reference case as well as a number of
scenarios illustrating the capabilities of the model has been set up.