Not exact matches
Because when you actually look at the relationship across sectors, and you look at their
valuations based
on return on equity, or other measures, all sectors seem to be about fairly valued.
Another factor: In January, to the horror of the private
equity world, the Ohio Bureau of Workers» Compensation asked a state judge for permission to publish information
on the VC firms in which it invests — including company
valuations and rates of
return.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, reasonable
valuation levels, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable
return on equity.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its reasonable
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable
return on equity.
Along with the steepest
equity valuations in U.S. history outside of 1929 and 2000 (
on measures that are actually reliably correlated with subsequent market
returns), private and public debt burdens have reached the most extreme levels in history.
A reminder
on interest rate front - it's essential to recognize that if one believes depressed interest rates «justify» extremely rich
equity valuations, what one is really saying is that depressed interest rates «justify» dismal subsequent
returns on stocks.
Looking at
valuations overall, we have observed that earnings of many EM companies are gradually improving, in terms of profitability, margins and
return on equity, after these variables came under pressure recently.
At this point, obscene
equity valuations are already baked in the cake
on valuation measures that are reliably correlated with actual subsequent stock market
returns.
Last week, the U.S.
equity market climbed to the steepest
valuation level in history, based
on the
valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 - 12 year total
returns, across a century of market cycles.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its notable
return on equity, attractive
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, good cash flow from operations and increase in stock price during the past year.
Going forward, as Japanese companies raise their notoriously low
return on equity, Japanese stocks should be supported by relatively cheap
valuations and rising dividends.
Return on equity has finally been improving and
valuations have been rising.
Historically, the differential in
return -
on -
equity (ROE) explains approximately 35 % of the variation in growth / value relative
valuations.
First, the «
returns on equities» here are typically taken to be earnings yields, which as we've frequently noted, are affected by cyclical variations in profit margins that make them notoriously poor indicators of long - term prospective
returns (see Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm and Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of
Valuation).
These
valuations might be reasonable
on the assumption that short - term interest rates will be kept at zero for more than 30 years, but our impression is that what's actually going
on is that investors feel they have «nowhere else to go» and — as in 2000 and 2007 — are speculating without a clear recognition of the dismal long - term
returns that are now priced into
equities.
Moreover, our impression is that
equity valuations are actually only mildly less extreme «when you compare the
returns on equities to the
returns on safe assets like bonds.»
Until the developed stock markets retreat from record levels of
valuation, we expect to have less portfolio exposure to
equities going forward and more exposure to event driven situations such as liquidations and reorganizations that are not so dependent
on the vicissitudes of the stock market for their investment
return.
CAPM measures required rate of
return on equity investments, and it is an important element of modern portfolio theory and discounted cash flow
valuation.
We examined
valuations by quintile and corresponding data
on earnings,
return on equity, and revenue growth (Figures 1 and 2).
All stock selection is focused
on two key fundamental drivers of long - run
equity returns: stock
valuations and business quality (as defined by measures of Profitability, Stability and Financial Strength).
At the other extreme,
valuation metrics need not have any effect
on equity returns if those
returns all come from price appreciation (capital gains).
Thus, traders and investors using aggregate financial accounting numbers to derive superficial financial ratios (e.g. profit margin,
return -
on -
equity) and
valuation metrics (e.g. low price - to - earnings, low price - to - book) without understanding the underlying business model, the related - party transactions artificially inflating the aggregate financial numbers and the data generation process in the financial footnotes can be misled.
Thus, traders and investors using aggregate financial accounting numbers to derive superficial financial ratios (e.g. profit margin,
return -
on -
equity) and
valuation (e.g. low price - to - earnings, low price - to - book) without understanding the underlying business model, the related - party transactions artificially inflating the aggregate financial numbers and the data generation process in the financial footnotes can be misled.
TimesSquare believes that its proprietary fundamental
equity research skills, which place particular emphasis
on the assessment of management quality, an in - depth understanding of superior business models, and
valuation discrepancies, enable the firm to build diversified stock portfolios that will generate superior risk - adjusted
returns.
In other words don't count
on that cash being
returned to shareholders or even invested in passive investments (private or public
equity) for the benefit of shareholders; A liquidation
valuation really isn't of interest here as Glassbridge is set to be an ongoing business and I can see an operating cash bleed for 3 - 5 years depending
on how long it takes the company to attract enough AUM to cover operating (read staffing) costs.
art vs. science, asset allocation, diversification, Event Driven, GARP investing, growth vs. value, IRR, Margin of Safety,
Return on Market
Equity, stock picking, stock selection, stock
valuation
On the contrary, since the 1940's, the ratio of equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90 % correlation with subsequent 10 - year total returns on the S&P 500 (see Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annuall
On the contrary, since the 1940's, the ratio of
equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90 % correlation with subsequent 10 - year total
returns on the S&P 500 (see Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annuall
on the S&P 500 (see Investment, Speculation,
Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total
returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annuall
on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annually.
We find that the Shiller - PE is a reliable long - term
valuation indicator for developed and emerging markets and we use the indicator to predict real
returns on local
equity markets over the next five to ten years.
It featured articles
on whether the
returns on industries as a whole mean - revert or have momentum, whether there is a
valuation effect
on industry
returns, «social responsibility» in investing, and the existence of
equity discount rate for the market as a whole.
In the context of your series
on valuation metrics and
equity expected
returns, I'd be interested in your thoughts
on our meta - study of market expected
returns using various smoothed PE ratios, the Q ratio, mkt cap / GNP and regression to trend measures.
Capital levels constrain business growth, so look at the
return on equity to help modify what the proper
valuation level should be.
If a share's genuinely «bad» — say, in terms of excessive debt, poor margins, low
return on equity, erratic P&L record, etc. — then logically, those sub-par financial metrics will automatically get incorporated into your stock
valuation anyway (in suitably quantitative fashion).
Sberbank's
valuation is something else... a
Return on Equity of 27.1 %, and a 2012 estimated Price / Book of only 1.5, wow!
Look at the growth, the
return on equity, the earnings, the balance sheet and the
valuation... You have to make money if you by a basket of good undervalued business like this.
Which is very relevant, as I'd prefer a
return on equity (RoE)
valuation approach here (vs. most analysts & their focus
on earnings / EBITDA multiples), reflecting DHG's deliberate asset - heavy investment policy... which is now far less usual in the sector.
Travis has also taught informal workshops
on sustainable competitive advantage, business
valuation, and the wider applications of behavioral finance and prospect theory, in addition to running a concentrated deep value / special - situations
equity portfolio, which has
returned 69.53 % since inception in June 2006 relative to the S&P 500's -6.08 %.
The book discusses the basics of
valuation through
return on equity, how to identify a «good» businesses with sustainable competitive advantages (moats), diversification, how to understand the capital structure, and the implications of the economy for the business analyzed.
This style of investing is subject to the risk that the
valuations never improve or that the
returns on «value»
equity securities are less than
returns on other styles of investing or the overall stock market.
However, based
on current
valuations (using the Shiller CAPE ratio as of May), expected
returns on U.S. stocks are now only about 6.1 %, while those for international
equities are 7.9 %.
Historically it has been mean reversion of
valuation ratios like price to book and price to earnings which have had the greatest effect
on long term
equity returns.
In 2014, Credit Suisse released persuasive research indicating that companies with greater gender diversity
on boards and in management exhibit higher
returns on equity, higher
valuations, and superior stock price performance.
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