What is the basis that makes the suggestion that the temperatures were not as warm as indicated during AD500 - 1000 more valid than perhaps the M08 reconstruction suggesting that
the SLR estimate instead is incorrect?
By contrast, the actual
SLR estimate during that same interval is relatively flat, suggesting that temperatures were not as warm as indicated by the temperature reconstruction.
Not exact matches
An independent technical report (by
SLR) has also been published, upping the best case in - place resource
estimates to: 0.957 bio (gas case) or 2.4 bio (oil case) boe for Mizzen, and 3.6 bio (gas) or 12.5 bio (oil) boe for Molly Malone.
But I'm wondering what Eric
estimates as the (local and global) risks and adaptation chances of a scenario with 5 - 10m of
SLR by 2300.
Now that I've been able to study figure 2 of the paper better, I see that 3 experts think even in the best case there's about a 5 % chance of more than about 1.5 meters of
SLR by 2100, with about 2 meters as highest
estimate.
How many experts think
SLR could be more than 4m by 2300 and how high do their
estimates for the 95th percentile go?
It may be (and I would say that it is likely) that the «official»
estimates we have been given for
SLR are conservative and the actual rise will be significantly higher / sooner.
In summary, they
estimate that including dynamic ice sheet processes gives projected
SLR at 2100 somewhere in the 80 cm to 2 meter range, and suggest that 80 cm should be the «default» value.
Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric
SLR compared to previous
estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100
SLR projections by 0.25 m.
We do not state anywhere in our paper that 2m or more of
SLR by 2100 has been published as a peer reviewed and «informed
estimate».
Although relatively modest in comparison, projected
SLR of up to 1.2 m this century has been
estimated to threaten up to 4.6 % of the global population and 9.3 % of annual global gross domestic product with annual flooding by 2100 in the absence of adaptive measures (12).
The 0.16 - m adjustment to projections of
SLR above the preindustrial level reflects
estimates of global mean
SLR from the late 19th century through 1992 (40).
To
estimate uncertainty in total committed rise given some temperature increase, we use the derived Antarctic intervals, plus the ranges for the first three
SLR components as shown in figure 2 A — C of ref.
Blue lines and shading represent central and 66 % CI
estimates based on
SLR sensitivity to warming, holding constant the transient climate response to emissions at its median value.
A range of future
SLR is
estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle — upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios.
The old lack of acceleration problem only «solved» by splicing a sat alt
estimate of
SLR onto a CORS (diff GPS) corrected tide gauge
SLR that does close.
But then, the forcing
estimate has not changed, so my second instinct is to say the sensitivity of
SLR to radiative forcing is the same.
My personal prejudice: Scientists who publish a paper refining some
estimate of
SLR and then conclude by explaining how their work «closes the sea level rise budget» are working in ignorance of confirmation bias.
Recent
estimates of
SLR over this period of 1.1 to 1.2 mm / yr, that better align with integral constraints, are substantially lower that the AR5 values, make a mockery of the very likely likelihood.
Archer should also know that Rignot's 2014 Pine Island Glacier finding (one of six entering the Amundsen Embayment is (a) > 2x any other PIG ice loss
estimate and (b) does not support
SLR of even half a meter, let alone 5, and (c) is hardly representative of WAIS.
Big deal some earlier
estimates of glaciers and
SLR have turned out not to be as close.
Offshore or coastal business ventures would benefit by more accurate
estimates of
SLR and tropical cyclone intensity.
Then we take that
SLR in 50 years as a basis of action, and a bench mark for
estimating economic cost and discounting.
It includes the low - lying surface factors, which IIT Kanpur has
estimated can raise
SLR during a storm surge by as much as 1.5 m.