Sentences with phrase «spna decadal trend»

According to Dr. Natali, «Our results show that while permafrost degradation increased carbon uptake during the growing season, in line with decadal trends of «greening» tundra, warming and permafrost thaw also enhanced winter respiration, which doubled annual carbon losses.»

The large areas where surveys documented declines in sardine and anchovy and increases in market squid and rockfish suggests that the drivers for this decadal trend is environmental.

Tracking decadal trends in both methane and hydroxyl, Frankenberg and his colleagues noted that fluctuations in hydroxyl concentrations correlated strongly with fluctuations in methane.

Combining the STORM model with analysis of the rainfall data set allowed the investigators to gain insights into decadal trends in monsoonal rainfall intensity under climate change.

The trends in LW and SW are larger than the trend in NET, but it should be noted that getting decadal trends out of satellite data of this sort is difficult.

I focused on Fig 2 of Rahmstorf 2012, which shows the rate of sea level change in the form of 10 yr decadal trends.

This should be kept in mind when assessing the decadal trends.

Barring any large volcanic eruption, I don't see any reason for the decadal trends to depart much from the anticipated ~ 0.2 ºC / decade.

Even in scenario A2 the models produce still slightly negative or near zero decadal trends until 2040 or so.

I just give you data that shows, on the backcast, the models, surprisingly, hit all the decadal trends since 1950 in a signal it was supposedly not tuned to match.

Enough people have already pointed out issues with your thinking about «decadal trends» and the data interpretation, so I won't pile on, but I think it's still worth saying a few words about the actual implications of model - obs agreement.

On the forecast it misses the decadal trend.

He has all manner of theories if you'll buy him a beer, and you can use them to fill your mind with oxymorons like «decadal trends», and that will help you ignore the science some more.

Now you say the forecast «misses the decadal trend.»

Have you computed the uncertainty level in your estimate of the «decadal trend»?

So let us look at the decadal trends for each of the decades since 1950 the decades when CO2 is supposed to have become a dominant forcing factor.

55, Alan Millar: So let us look at the decadal trends for each of the decades since 1950 the decades when CO2 is supposed to have become a dominant forcing factor.

Since you don't seem to know how meaningless «decadal trends» are, you use the only data set that gives you what you want and ignore the others, and you act as though there's no uncertainty in your «trend» estimate, your level of certainty amounts to nothing more than hubris.

You aren't even discussing decadal trends, which makes me wonder whether you even understand the term.

UAH had a decadal trend of only 0.044 C as late as Jan. 2001.

Few nitpicks: — improvements are * — The magenta decadal trends drawn should date back to ’62 as you include five in the description, yet only four on the graph

No one is talking about «decadal trends» when it comes to the pause.

To give people an idea of what should really be expected from looking at GCM results: the AR4 model cast exhibits a range of decadal trends for 2000 - 2010 projections between about 0.0 ºC / Decade and 0.40 ºC / Decade.

Using latest months, the average temperature of 1993 - 2003 subtracted from 2003 - 2013 is 0.14 C, a fairly robust decadal trend.

The most objective way to get a decadal trend is to take the two most recent decades and their difference.

The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after 2007, and continues the decadal trend of rapidly decreasing summer sea ice.

If this year is higher than 2007 how can it be continuing a decadal trend of rapidly decreasing ice?

The numbers in the top - left hand corner pick out the decadal trend for each drought recovery time.

(The essentially flat temperature of 2000 - 2010 is real, and the trend for that decade can not be changed in 2020 by including the temperature for 2010 - 2020 unless you define decadal trend in some other way.)

Dr. Pratt On decadal trending: During the last 100 years or so, solar cycle period was on average 10.54 years, while theHale cycle is twice as long.

You have to view the decadal trends to see the imbalance signal and, decade on decade, the ocean has warmed, and the land has too.

The data represent decadal trends within overlapping 15 - year windows that are centered on the plotted year.

Decadal trends also differ greatly between POLES and TOVS primarily owing to the discontinuation of ice station data in the POLES dataset after 1991.

Where this kind of approach is useful is in assessing shorter decadal trends where variability dominates forcing.

James Risbey and I published a paper last Sunday with colleagues that used a set of maps in one of the figures to show the modeled and observed decadal trends (Kelvin / decade) of Sea Surface Temperature (SST).

On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend».

Could models, which consistently err by several degrees in the 20th century, be trusted for their future predictions of decadal trends that are much lower than this error?

Chiefly, there was never any expectation that decadal trends would constantly match the ensemble mean and there was never any expectation that cooling trends across specific decadal periods were now impossible, or even particularly unlikely.

I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends, and so do not require models to reproduce the past trends.

Are you claiming that variations in relative timing of onset, length, and lapse of El Niño couldn't affect «a decadal trend»?

This is why there is little faith placed in CAGW forecasts, any one who knows anything about how the weather really works, understands the real drivers are not even understood enough to used in models yet, and with out considering the background patterns of the seasonal, annual, decadal trends that determine how the weather works, are even used in weather forecasting, in a viable active method, why should ANY confidence be placed in CAGW long range unverifiable modeled forecasts?

[3] An implementation of the diff - of - gaussian filter is presented here: https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2016/09/18/diff-of-gaussian-filter/ [4] The sea - ice area data used in the decadal trend analysis are provided by Cryosphere Today team at U. Illinois.

Both the decadal trends and the shift in the date of minimum show distinctly non linear variability.

That will make the 2007 - 2017 trough - to - trough trend slightly more negative than 2007 - 2016 decadal trend and the 2012 - 2017 trough - to - trough trend the first sustained positive trend since the rapid decline started in the 1990s.

The decadal trends (degrees C) for that period are:

Then there's this analysis that Judith featured here last year where I looked at decadal trends.

Since the «decadal trend» was as high as 5.2 mm / year in the 20thC, I'd say anything under this trend is not «unusual», and we'll have to see if the current slowdown continues for a while or not.

Conclusions Recently observed decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are not well explained by external forcing alone.

No decline, in contrast to the proceeding decadal trends.

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.