Sentences with phrase «spna decadal variability»

Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability.

Rainfall during the Indian monsoon season, which runs from June to September and accounts for about 70 % of annual rainfall, exhibits decadal variability.

Screen, J. A. & Francis, J. A. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability.

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.

The history of decadal variability suggests that temperatures will decline (since 1998) over the next couple of decades — well before which the entire science community is utterly discredited.

We quantify the interannual - to - decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000 - meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998.

Firstly, we know that there is a great deal of decadal variability in how much and where deep convection takes place.

Or does he perhaps mean that slow components, like the ocean, modulate the clouds, and the resulting cloud radiative forcing amplifies or damps the resulting interannual or decadal variability?

Warming will continue to exhibit interannual - to - decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform.

Reliable data on decadal variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)

Indeed, one valid criticism of the recent papers on transient constraints is precisely that the simple models used do not have sufficient decadal variability!

Specifically, he addressed a claim made by Will Happer, a Princeton professor, that no models demonstrate decadal variability in trends (which was not the case), and explored in depth the signal to noise ratio in determining climate trends much more comprehensively than had been done previously.

Our best armory for the arguments you fear quite rightly is to build up our understanding of decadal variability and the extent to which it can cloud the long term trend.

[Response: The forcings have been increasing since 1850 (see here), and taking the longest period possible minimises the influence of intrinsic decadal variability in the climate system.

At the October 2004 SORCE meeting there was a presentation by Enric Palle (Big Bear Solar Observatory) on «Decadal Variability in the Earth's Reflectance as Observed by Earthshine».

My guess is that heat content changes related to ENSO events and their interaction with decadal variability in the gyres are probably responsible, but I'm basically just handwaving here.

But questions remained concerning the degree of decadal variability, the length of the record and the balance in the models between aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity (which can't really be disentangled using this measure).

The model used in Hansen et al (2005) for instance, does not have a good representation of ENSO variability — conceivably leading to this underestimate of decadal variability, but other models do a better job and it would be good to see what their variability looked like in this metric.

So my point is that yes, the actual climate model runs we used * do * show a lot of decadal and higher frequency decadal variability.

Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability.

No mention is made of ENSO or Pacific decadal variations that dominate interannual and decadal variability in the real world, and which are a key to understanding the recent hiatus, and recent trends that are not representative of longer - term trends, although frequently interpreted as such.

In some models, the decadal variability for monsoons such as the South Asian monsoon also outweighs the magnitude of the future trends, and in others it does not (the review above is one example showing this).

Indeed regionally, interannual and decadal variability is still dominant in the climate record and will be for a long time.

Fig. 6 confirms that there has been little increase of the 60 - month (5 - year) and 132 - month (11 - year) running means in the past decade, although it is not obvious that such a slowdown is outside the norm of unforced decadal variability.

and J. Willebrand, J. (1996) «Decadal Variability», Springer, NATO ASI series, volume 44; chapter: «Spectral Methods: What they Can and Can not Do for Climate Times Series» by M. Ghil and P. Yiou

Decadal variability has been acknowledged in many other recent publications such as...

This isn't directly comparable with Webster et al (2005) though, since their trends start in the 1970s, and the shortness of the new reanalysis (only 23 years) emphasizes interannual and decadal variability associated with e.g. El Nino.

The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing.

Of course, if you have a scheme to detect the difference between intrinsic decadal variability and forced variability, we'd love to see it.

Sevellec, F., and A. V. Fedorov, 2014b: Optimal excitation of AMOC decadal variability: links to the subpolar ocean.

e.g Wong et al (2006)-- Reexamination of the Observed Decadal Variability of the Earth Radiation Budget Using Altitude - Corrected ERBE / ERBS Nonscanner WFOV Data

Warming will continue to exhibit interannual - to - decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8).

(and over the next century, decadal variability will give us wetter and drier periods imposed on, and maybe interacting with, a greenhouse signal) We don't know for sure, and so we must try and assess the risks with the info we have at hand.

«What's really been exciting to me about this last 10 - year period is that it has made people think about decadal variability much more carefully than they probably have before,» said Susan Solomon,

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

And the $ 64,000 question then is basically how much did internal decadal variability contribute... during the recent decades and I think the jury is still out about the relative contribution of this internal variability.

«What's really been exciting to me about this last 10 - year period is that it has made people think about decadal variability much more carefully than they probably have before,» said Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist and former lead author of the United Nations» climate change report, during a recent visit to MIT.

Intriguing thing is that the 20 % of the LOD's decadal variability is strongly correlated to sunspot magnetic cycle, which may not be cause but another parallel and event http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm

Let me say again 20 % of the LOD's decadal variability is strongly correlated to the sunspot magnetic cycle This is based on the LOD data widely used by the NASA - JPL and Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris.

http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm the angular momentum is compensated by the inner - outer core differential rotation; this is then reflected in the decadal variability of the core's magnetic field output, providing the data used in the above link.

The atmospheric warming is the factor that can best explain this consistency, up to ~ 0.7 °C since 1950 and more marked since 1976, while the trend in precipitation is much less homogeneous over this area and is affected by a significant decadal variability.

The stadium wave holds promise in putting into perspective numerous observations of climate behavior, such as regional patterns of decadal variability in drought and hurricane activity, the researchers say, but a complete understanding of past climate variability and projections of future climate change requires integrating the stadium - wave signal with external climate forcing from the sun, volcanoes and anthropogenic forcing.

The concentration on the PDO is not nearly the whole story of decadal variability as it is linked to the frequency and intensity of ENSO in the Pacific multi-decadal pattern.

The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

Key measures of Pacific decadal variability are the North Pacific Index (NPI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index.

The Earth's field sustains the magnetosphere and it is not constant either, it shows similar decadal variability, as shown in the data from and used by number of distinguished geo - magnetic scientists and researchers (Jault Gire, LeMouel, J. Bloxham, D. Gubbins, A.Jackson, R. Hide, D. Boggs, J. Dickey etc,) Since changes in either of two fields affect strength of the magnetosphere, it would be expected that the «magnetospheric variability» time function could be produced by combining two sets of available data.

Roemmich et al (2007) suggest that mid-latitude gyres in all of the oceans are influenced by decadal variability in the Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM respectively) as wind driven currents in baroclinic oceans (Sverdrup, 1947).

2) Reversibility of the decadal variability (which suggests natural variability) such as an absence of volcanic perturbation eg Joshi and Shine 2003 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C3525%3AAGSOVE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Runoff gains occurred in droughts and pluvials, a surprising outcome that underscored the importance of inter-annual and decadal variability in precipitation.

Wang, Y. - H., G. Magnusdottir, H. Stern, X. Tian and Y. Yu, 2012: Decadal variability of the NAO: Introducing an augmented NAO index.