One of the Team's more adventurous assumptions in creating temperature histories is that there was an abrupt and universal change in
SST measurement methods away from buckets to engine inlets in 1941, coinciding with the U.S. entry into World War II.
The Folland and Parker hypothesis of abrupt and universal change in
SST measurement methods in 1941 has been adopted in many data sets.
Not exact matches
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and
methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic
SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7
measurements).
(As you're aware, pre-satellite era
SST data is not only very spotty, but fails to maintain consistent datum levels due to inconsistent
measurement methods.)
I think Parker's papers tend to minimize the temperature
measurement uncertainties whereas the antithesis would allow for more uncertainties that might put more emphasis on the satellite and
SST measurements and better insuring the accuracies and precisions of those
methods.
Now Kent et al 2007 have carried out a long overdue analysis of the metadata and reported that over 90 % of
SST measurements in 1970 for which the
measurement method was known were still being carried out by bucket, as shown in the following figure.
It has been noted by investigators that the algorithms used for adjusting satellite observed
SST data has been inconsistent, cloud coverage has limited the adequacy of satellite coverage, and in - situ
measurements by VOS and buoy networks has been inadequate with respect to the datasets produced by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR), Cross Product Sea Surface Temperature (CPSST), Non-Linear
SST (NLSST), and Multi-Channel Sea Surface Temperature (MCSST)
methods.
The
SST data are a little more complex than the weather station data with which most of use are familiar: Whereas temperature
measurements at weather stations have been performed according to a standard protocol for over a century,
measurement methods for
SST data have changed significantly over the same period.
I also managed to identify the post-war spike by the trivial
method of comparing colocated coastal land and
SST measurements.
In no way is this comparable to the manufacture of data where no
measurements have been taken or the substitution of one measured variable (daily mean land air temperature) with another (instantaneous
SST observations) whose sampling
method varies, is exceedingly uneven geographically, and no credible, alias - free time - series can be obtained.
Uncertainties should decrease closer to near - current dates (e.g. from denser and more accurate sampling)-- but note that these products also employ different QC and analysis
methods, rely to varying degrees on satellite data, on sea - ice data to constrain polar
SST, and on bias adjustments for historical changes in
measurement methods.
A separate
method involves marine air temperature (NMAT)
measurements that are less robust but generally match
SST quite well.
All temperature reconstructions suffer from one VERY arbitrary assumption in relation to the
measurement method of sea surface temperatures
SST (buckets of various types, engine):
of years ago, there was an excitement that it was partly explained by different
methods of sea - going
measurements of
SST's varying from canvas bucket dips giving lower readings due to evaporation through to solid buckets, and engine cooling water inlet
measurements.