Most of the proxies with high correlation to
sst show a warmer MWP and LIA.
The global
SST show mostly similar trends to those of the land - surface air temperature until 1976, but the trend since 1976 is markedly less (Table 2.1).
More importantly in the context of your comment, the maximum positive meridional overturning streamfunction anomalies are found to be almost precisely in phase with the maximum SSTs over the entire North Atlantic basin, including the tropical Atlantic and Carribean (see Figure 3 in the paper;
SSTs shown on the left side panel, associated meridional overturning streamfunction anomalies shown on the right side panel).
And it is known that the southern polar regions «see - saws» with the northern — so when the north polar is on the up cycle — the south polar in on a downer (Bob Tisdale's graph of the southern ocean
SSTs shows this clearly for the «global warming» period of 1980 - 2005 — and the Peninsula Region just catches a flow - in from warmer seas to the north).
Over the instrumental period (since the 1850s), North Atlantic
SSTs show a 65 to 75 year variation (0.4 °C range), with a warm phase during 1930 to 1960 and cool phases during 1905 to 1925 and 1970 to 1990 (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994), and this feature has been termed the AMO (Kerr, 2000), as shown in Figure 3.33.
The SST showed a significant negative trend (slope = − 0.0002, p < 0.001), though the r2 was low (r2 = 0.014).
While global mean temperature and tropical Atlantic
SSTs show pronounced and statistically significant warming trends (green curves), the U.S. landfalling hurricane record (orange curve) shows no significant increase or decrease.
The short term proportionality between temp and rate of change of
SST shows 1 degree deviation from equilibrium conditions causes 8 ppm / year of CO2 out - gassing from the oceans.
Not exact matches
But the new study, he says, is the first to
show the «switchboard» role played by
Sst interneurons in the cortex.
Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes
show a significant upward trend since the mid-1970s, with a trend towards longer lifetimes and greater storm intensity, and such trends are strongly correlated with tropical
SST.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite observations
show the sea surface temperature (
SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.
However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding
SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million
SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data)
shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Other major African rivers, including the Blue and White Nile, Congo and inflow into Lake Malawi
show high variability, consistent with interannual variability of
SSTs in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Avid car guy with Custom 1971 AMC Javelin
SST does car
shows and open to share God's love, joy, and peace.
«
SST is in good standing with the TEA and our students» achievements
show that we have a history of providing high - quality STEM education to primarily economically disadvantaged children,» Nalcaci said.
At that time the
SST Band was using sequencers for the live
show.
He soon began to contribute artwork to album covers, flyers and t - shirts, for the band and its label,
SST Records, and exhibited his work in group
shows in galleries in the 1980s.
In particular, data gathered by ships recruited by Japan and the Netherlands (not
shown) are biased in a way that suggests that these nations were still using uninsulated buckets to obtain
SST measurements as late as the 1960s.
the real action is for a warming, proving and complementing the
shown above
sst graphs quite well.
If one examines our model's control simulations for the 1982 - 2006 period, which
show a trend towards increasing hurricane activity over this period, and correlates this activity with
SST in the Main Development Region, and then tries to use this correlation to predict the 21st century behavior of the model, it clearly doesn't work.
The most revealing item is Gavin's «Colocated Anomalies» graph
showing the relationship between corrected
SST (HadSST2 in red) and marine air temperatures (NMAT in green).
Strikingly, both curves
show the post-1945 «dip», with the main difference residing in the deeper decline of the
SST curve, and its more sudden drop.
Figure 2
shows an apparent correlation between a «power dissipation index» (PDI) and North Atlantic
SST.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL
showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006
showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic
SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in
showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
One odd feature of the HadSST2 collation was that the temperature impact of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption — which is very clear in the land measurements — didn't really
show up in the
SST.
Scenarios for future global warming
show tropical
SST rising by a few degrees, not just tenths of a degree (see e.g. results from the Hadley Centre model and the implications for hurricanes
shown in Fig. 1 above).
So if there really was minimal tropical cooling, then there would need to be an alternative explanation of why those
SST proxy time series
show such systematic patterns.
The caption says that the
SST rose by.25 degrees between 1975 and 2006, but no data are provided, and the data
showing a larger increase at station «S» was stripped out of the original figure.
Furthermore, the fact is (as
shown in Figure 1) that hurricane intensity has increased in recent decades as
SST has risen (at least in the North Atlantic for which trends are most reliable) and this prediction is based on fairly fundamental and robust thermodynamic arguments explored by Emanuel and others for decades now.
The time - series of an E-W
SST difference, defined analogously with our DSLP index (difference of the average (80E - 160E, 5 S - 5N) and (160W - 80W, 5S - 5N)-RRB-,
shows the different evolution in the two products:
So the evolution of the tropical Pacific
SST gradient across the various GFDL - CM 2.1 ensemble - members is not inconsistent with a tendency towards an
SST «La Nina» - like state as
shown in the Kaplan / HadISST products.
These results provide quantitative assessment of how mixing varies on timescales longer than a few weeks, clearly
showing its controlling influence on seasonal cooling of
SST in a critical oceanic regime.
There is more to the increased thermodynamic potential of tropical storms than
SST (as Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland and others have very clearly
shown), an example of that is the multi-model projections of MPI response (which
shows a big swath of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) decrease in the Atlantic, even though the entire tropics are warming).
For me, Mauritsen and Stevens» paper
show that the Iris should be taken seriously, even if it does not happen in the original form suggested by Lindzen et al (2002) and more as a convective aggregation with increasing
SST.
I would really like to see the figures
showing tropospheric temperatures, and also the figure that
shows SST by latitude over time.
The raw
SST data
show much larger trends that turned out to be spurious due to changes in measuring techniques.
Over the period 1880 - 2005 the Kaplan
SST product and HadISST both
show an increase in E-W
SST gradient (more «La Nina» - like state), while NOAA - ERSST
shows a moderate weakening of the E-W
SST gradient (more «El Nino» - like state).
Observations in the tropical Atlantic ocean (11)
show that the clear sky downwelling infrared flux incident on the surface (Fa ---RRB- also increases faster than the surface emission with increasing
SST.
I had updated it with modern
SST measurements, and in our abstract we pointed out that it had been misused by contrarians who had removed some of the data, replotted it, and mislabeled it to falsely claim that it was a global temperature record
showing a cooling trend.
Met stations clearly record a cooling over land associated with Krakatoa of the same magnitude as we predict — however the
SST data do not
show this.
Fig 2A
shows that there are (small) positive
SST anomalies during these ISOs and (clear) water vapour positive anomalies, at least at the peak of the warming phase of ISOs.
In that paper, Kerry and Mike
show the combination of global
SSTs and regional aerosol forcing are a good predictor of Atlantic tropical
SSTs and thereby Atlantic TC counts, and that there is very little Atlantic tropical
SST variation left for a multi-decadal cycle to explain.
Additionally, the
SST maps for 2008
show an abnormally LOW heat range in the tropics compared to all previous years and in particular compared to 2007 which was much cooler than previous years.
If, as 2008
SST / SHA maps are
showing, major ports around the Atlantic Basin are stemming their wastewater emissions, then surface waters will retain less diurnal heat.
I don't think AMO has ever definitively been
shown to be anything other than
SST response to surface warming.
As
shown in Figure 29, the trend of the North Atlantic
SST anomalies between 20N - 60N is 70 % higher than the North Pacific
SST anomalies trend.
Also
shown are scaled (0.25) SPCZ Extension
SST anomalies.
The
SST anomaly map for the week ending 29 March
shows warm anomalies extending across nearly all of the equatorial Pacific Ocean...
As
shown in Figure 31, the
SST anomaly variations of the Gulf Stream Extension and the Kuroshio - Oyashio Extension are very similar.
As for the iris and Bart — I
show the latest data from CERES that
shows that higher
sst results in higher losses of IR to space and vice versa.