Sentences with phrase «sst variability»

Increasing attention is being paid to IPCC misrepresentations of natural oceanic variability on decadal scales (Compo and Sardeshmukh 2009): «Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal scales (e.g., Shukla et al. 2006, DelSole, 2006; Newman 2007; Newman et al. 2008).

The resultant equatorial SST variability is consistent with published data for CC.

There is a hint of an underestimation of simulated decadal SST variability even in the published IPCC Report (Hegerl et al. 2007, FAQ9.2 Figure 1).

However, to the extent that SSTs are influential it makes sense to assess the possible contribution of a global warming signal to the SST variability.

While the convergence of the model response to SST variability is encouraging, any technique used to identify internal variability must not be confounded by forced patterns of climate variability.

The inter-decadal time scale of tropical Indo - Pacific SST variability is likely due to oceanic processes.

Emile - Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E. & Wittenberg, A. T. Estimating central equatorial Pacific SST variability over the past millennium.

That's obvious from a quick eyeballing of the data (and it's shown clearly in Figure 4 of part 2 of the HadSST3 paper) but Greg's statement is too vague and general and fails, crucially, to differentiate between real SST variability and variability due to measurement biases.

Karnauskas, Kristopher B., and Antonio J. Busalacchi: The association between low - frequency tropical Pacific SST variability and multiyear North American drought in 22 coupled climate models.

This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales.

It is not surprising for there to be SST variability.

[Response: These eddies are a big part of the variability seen by shipboard SST measurements and indeed of the SST variability more generally.

Hotspots of high intensity occurred in regions of large SST variability including the five western boundary current extension regions (+2 — 5 °C), the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (+1 — 4 °C) and eastern boundary current regions (+1 — 3 °C).

Not exact matches

Shifts in internal temperature variability, measured through SST variance and skewness, are also occurring and contribute to much of the MHW trends observed over the remainder of the global ocean, particularly for MHW duration and intensity.

Figure 4 - Spatial variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) trends scaled with the global surface air temperature (SAT) trend for each simulation used in the study.

A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long - term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23 - yr period.

Other major African rivers, including the Blue and White Nile, Congo and inflow into Lake Malawi show high variability, consistent with interannual variability of SSTs in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans.

«Multidecadal variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed to relate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a mode manifesting primarily in sea surface temperature (SST) in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic.

This increase was accompanied by a rise in SST of 0.2 — 0.3 C and an upward shift of the annual variability to typically 6 — 14 named storms.

Given that the trend in global SSTs has been attributed to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (17 — 19), it follows that the best explanation for this ecosystem aberration is anthropogenic warming that has passed a threshold of natural variability.

However, atmospheric CO2 content plays an important internal feedback role.Orbital - scale variability in CO2 concentrations over the last several hundred thousand years covaries (Figure 5.3) with variability in proxy records including reconstructions of global ice volume (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005), climatic conditions in central Asia (Prokopenko et al., 2006), tropical (Herbert et al., 2010) and Southern Ocean SST (Pahnke et al., 2003; Lang and Wolff, 2011), Antarctic temperature (Parrenin et al., 2013), deep - ocean temperature (Elder eld et al., 2010), biogeochemical conditions in the Northet al., 2008).

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Paleo - proxy reconstructions indicate that a lower insolation due to volcanic aerosols (or else) leads to a lower east - west SST gradient / a higher eastern equatorial SST / a higher El Nino variability?

Regional modes of variability, such as the AMO, largely cancel out and make a very small contribution in the global mean SST changes.

Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength of the north - ward horizontal flow of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic poleward heat transport and the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source of the (climate) natural variability.

The SSTs temperatures are used here, with success over certain regions of the globe, as a proxy and cross-check for cloud variability.»

Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic hurricane activity has not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles as documented here and elsewhere.

We note that none of these SST - gradient changes are significantly different from zero at p = 0.05 given the model internal variability.

Their correlations are based on a dynamic mode of variability (the Madden - Julian Oscillation) which has nothing to do with any SST forced response in the clouds.

MKL present a flawed SST — intensity regression analysis comparing correlations of real - world intensities versus SST with idealized model correlations where no synoptic weather variability is present.

While natural variability clearly plays a major role in all events, such as those detailed below in 2010 and 2011, the record high SSTs did as well.

Another region of sea surface temperature (SST) variability that impacts on Australian climate is located in the Indian Ocean.

The evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean - atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low - level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST.

The LOD variability is there and it looks like it has a causal effect on the PDO index, which impacts the SST temperatures to about a + / - 0.1 C fluctuating level.

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

So interdecal LOD as the integral that short term variability will reflect long term changes in global temperature (SST at least).

that's the point, pogac is not just natural variability, sst in the enso regions are affected by radiative forcing too.

Correct me if I am wrong but Gammon is saying that the Pacific SSTs are a forcing not natural variability.

Spherical harmonics are the natural choice for representing patterns on a sphere, but the oceans don't cover the whole of the sphere and the physical processes that govern changes in SST might mean that harmonics aren't the most natural set of patterns for efficiently capturing that variability.

However, regionally there appears to be skill beyond the trend in the two areas of well - known low - frequency variability: SST in parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is predicted better than persistence.

A NOTE ABOUT THE NORTH ATLANTIC Oceanic processes such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Thermohaline Circulation (THC) are normally cited as the cause of the additional multidecadal variability of North Atlantic SST anomalies.

In the context of large - scale variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the spring 2010 Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO; area averaged SST over the North Atlantic) was the highest since 1948 (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data) while the spring 2010 PDO (http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/) was near neutral.

Leave alone — no natural variability Add some GHG above — I'll leave that to AGWs (it will not make any difference, but let's be tolerant of the CO2 nonsense) Now to the important part: Stir for 5 min (interaction of the solar and Earth's magnetic field), the pot's Surface Temperature changes (SST - AMO) Leave alone for 5 min — the pot's ST slowly reverts back Result — Sun - Earth natural variability drives the AMO http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm

DOES THE VIDEO AND DATA PRESENT MORE THAN MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY IN GLOBAL SST ANOMALIES?

Importantly, the changes in cereal yield projected for the 2020s and 2080s are driven by GHG - induced climate change and likely do not fully capture interannual precipitation variability which can result in large yield reductions during dry periods, as the IPCC (Christensen et al., 2007) states: ``... there is less confidence in the ability of the AOGCMs (atmosphere - ocean general circulation models) to generate interannual variability in the SSTs (sea surface temperatures) of the type known to affect African rainfall, as evidenced by the fact that very few AOGCMs produce droughts comparable in magnitude to the Sahel droughts of the 1970s and 1980s.»

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

The task team is charged with better understanding the links between the AMOC and North Atlantic SST and teleconnections with climate variability elsewhere.

The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated changes in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].

These changes in tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs over the past millennium have often been associated with internal variability of the ocean - atmosphere system [19,27,53,54] that may not be accurately represented in current climate models.

Lorenz, David J. and Eric T. DeWeaver, «The role of the land surface and SSTs in preciptation variability and drought», Journal of Climate, (2008).