The extraordinary 2012 Arctic sea ice melt has resulted in
a September average sea ice extent of 3.61 million sq km, according to the latest monthly data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), smashing the previous record of 4.30 million sq km set in 2007.
It should be recalled that we are comparing these Outlook values to
the September average sea ice extent as provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
Stern: My estimate for
September average sea ice extent (4.67 million square kilometers) was simply based on extrapolation of the 10 - year trend (1989 - 2008).
Again, we are comparing these Outlook values to
the September average sea ice extent as provided by NSIDC.
Not exact matches
A composite image shows how the
extent of Arctic
sea ice in
September 2016 compared with a 30 - year
average for the month (yellow line).
Extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010 average minimum extent (gold
Extent of Arctic
sea ice in
September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010
average minimum
extent (gold
extent (gold line).
In fact, the
average September Arctic
sea ice extent is down almost 1 million square miles from where it was about 30 years ago.
Antarctic
sea ice extent during
September 2016 was 150,000 square miles (2.0 percent) below the 1981 — 2010
average.
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range of the forecasts for early
September, the point when the
sea ice typically reaches its minimum
extent, compared to recent years and the
average over the period of precise satellite measurement.
Global Weather Climate Logistics, 5.55, Statistical (same as June) Our forecast for
average September 2015
sea ice extent is 5.55 million sq. km.
The predicted
September monthly
average sea ice extent is 5.48 (4.97 - 5.98) million km2 which is same to the result of June Report.
Our model predicts that
September 2015 Arctic
sea ice extent will be 2.11 million km2 below the 1982 to 2011 observed
average extent, but will not reach values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
Li and Li (NMEFC), 5.48 (4.97 - 5.98), Statistical We predict the
September monthly
average sea ice extent of Arctic by statistic method.
As of
September 5,
sea ice extent remains below average everywhere except for a small area within the Laptev S
sea ice extent remains below
average everywhere except for a small area within the Laptev
SeaSea.
Canadian
Ice Service, 3.8, Heuristic Arctic Ocean September sea ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013 average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat of last year's reco
Ice Service, 3.8, Heuristic Arctic Ocean
September sea ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013 average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat of last year's reco
ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013
average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat of last year's record.
Figure 1: This image compares the
average sea ice extent for
September 2007 to
September 2005; the magenta line indicates the long - term median from 1979 to 2000.
Animation of changes in
average September sea ice extent from 1979 through 2016 — with noteworthy natural variability and a long - term decline.
Average September sea ice extent from 1979 to 2000 was 7.04 million square kilometers (2.70 million square miles).
However, the pace of decline returned to near -
average rates by July, and the end - of - summer minimum
sea ice extent, recorded on
September 10, eventually tied for second lowest with 2007 (2012 remains the lowest in the satellite time series by more than 600,000 square kilometers or 232,000 square miles).
Unless these nine models share common systematic biases, it is thus expected that the
average 2014
September Arctic
sea ice extent will be in the range 3.95 - 5.6 million km ², and likely above the trend line (5.1 million km ²), a situation similar to 2013.
The
average arctic
sea ice monthly extent for September 2012 was the lowest observed in the satellite era at 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000 average of 7.0 million square kilomete
ice monthly
extent for
September 2012 was the lowest observed in the satellite era at 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000 average of 7.0 million square kilomete
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000
average of 7.0 million square kilometers.
Daily
sea ice extent timeseries for April through
September for 2015 (light blue, through 17 August), 2012 (dashed green), and the 1981 - 2010
average (black) and standard deviation (gray).
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] NOAA (Msadek et al), 5.07 (4.69 - 5.63), Modeling Our prediction for the
September -
averaged Arctic
sea ice extent is 5.07 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.69 and 5.63 million square kilometers.
Our model predicts that
September 2014 Arctic
sea ice extent will be 1.45 million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 observed
average extent, but will not reach values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
GFDL NOAA (Msadek et al.), 4.82 (4.33 - 5.23), Modeling Our prediction for the
September -
averaged Arctic
sea ice extent is 4.82 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.33 and 5.23 million km2 Our estimate is based on the GFDL CM2.1 ensemble forecast system in which both the ocean and atmosphere are initialized on August 1 using a coupled data assimilation system.
While the projected 2013
extent remains below the 1979 - 2007 observed
average, the model predicts that
September Arctic
sea -
ice extent will recover to a value comparable to that reached in 2006.
This is pretty squishy, but given the current
extent and
ice conditions in the Beaufort
Sea, I think this year's
September average will be about 4 million km2.
NMEFC of China (Li and Li), 4.02 (3.10 - 4.57), Statistical We predict the
September monthly
average sea ice extent of Arctic by statistic method and based on monthly sea ice concentration and extent from National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice extent of Arctic by statistic method and based on monthly
sea ice concentration and extent from National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice concentration and
extent from National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
If your method predicts
sea ice extent (SIE) directly,
average it in time and across ensemble members, if you have them, for
September (giving values between 0 and 100 % inclusive).
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) / NOAA (Msadek et al), 4.95 (4.24 - 5.55), Modeling Our prediction for the
September -
averaged Arctic
sea ice extent is 4.95 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.24 and 5.55 million square kilometers.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the
extent of Arctic
sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs in
September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global
average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006
average), and in
sea - level rise.
Figure 2: Arctic
sea ice extent,
September 2017, compared to the record low year of 2012 and the 1981 - 2010
average.
The
average sea ice extent for the month of
September was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles), the lowest
September on record, shattering the previous record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 percent (see Figure 1).
In the 1980's and 199o's,
sea ice minimum
extent (in
September)
averaged about 6.5 - 7.5 M sq km.
Average July through
September Arctic
sea ice extent 1870 — 2008 from the University of Illinois and observational data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center for 2009 — 2
ice extent 1870 — 2008 from the University of Illinois and observational data from the National Snow and
Ice Data Center for 2009 — 2
Ice Data Center for 2009 — 2012
«Dr. Amstrup, however, said that according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Center, the average September sea ice extent for the years 2007 to 2017 was 4.5 million square kilometers, «nowhere near the low levels projected it would be by the middle of the century.&raq
Ice Data Center, the
average September sea ice extent for the years 2007 to 2017 was 4.5 million square kilometers, «nowhere near the low levels projected it would be by the middle of the century.&raq
ice extent for the years 2007 to 2017 was 4.5 million square kilometers, «nowhere near the low levels projected it would be by the middle of the century.»
The
average surface air temperature for the year ending
September 2017 is the 2nd warmest since 1900; however, cooler spring and summer temperatures contributed to a rebound in snow cover in the Eurasian Arctic, slower summer
sea ice loss, and below -
average melt
extent for the Greenland
ice sheet.
Late - summer
sea ice followed its long - term downward trend and scientific predictions of
September extent averaged out close to the true final values.