Whereas the simulations for March and June are all quite similar,
the September sea ice concentration of the central Arctic Ocean is significantly lower under conditions with a closed Bering Strait and half - flooded shelf seas (Fig. 8, Supplementary Fig. 9).
During the late LIG (120 ka), on the other hand,
September sea ice concentrations seems to have been quite similar to the PI (Fig. 4).
Not exact matches
A threshold h applied on the (thickness Feb = Mar
concentration Sept) field yields the predicted
September extent after the regression with the past four years of
sea ice extent observations.
Based on February / March SMOS
sea ice thickness and
September SSMI
sea ice concentration we provide a heuristic / statistical guesstimate for the 2015
September sea ice extent: 3.6 + / - 0.7.
The map shows Arctic
sea ice concentration from the AMSR2 satellite instrument for
September 5, 2016.
Prediction of
September 2010
sea ice concentration in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from a statistical model (canonical correlation analysis).
Probabilistic forecast of
September 2010
sea ice concentration anomalies.
2012's
sea ice area and extent were already trending low this year, but damage done to the thin and low
concentration of
ice by this storm almost ensures that 2012 will eclipse 2007 in all categories as the lowest
sea ice on record by the time the
September low is set.
a Average
sea ice concentration 1988 — 2007 for March (winter maximum) and
September (summer minimum)(Source: http://nsidc.org/).
While
sea ice concentrations were slightly lower in June during the early LIG (130 ka) and the middle LIG (125 ka) compared to PI
concentrations, the largest difference can be observed in
September when
sea ice concentrations during the early and middle LIG were distinctly lower then those modeled for the PI.
The statistical forecast submitted by Tivy for
September ice concentration anomalies in the Beaufort - Chukchi
Sea region is unchanged.
The white, pink, and yellow lines show
September 50 %
sea ice concentration for the years 2007, 2002 — 2007, and 1979 — 1983, respectively (source: http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de)
Kaleschke and Tian - Kunze, 3.6 (± 0.7), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) Based on February / March SMOS
sea ice thickness and
September SSMI
sea ice concentration we provide a heuristic / statistical guesstimate for the 2015
September sea ice extent: 3.6 (± 0.7) million km2.
The following maps show the probability of encountering
September sea ice at
concentrations greater than 15 % (corresponding to
ice extent as commonly defined) in a particular grid cell.
Wang, 5.0 (± 0.27), Modeling A projected
September Arctic
sea ice extent of 5.0 million km2 is based on a NCEP ensemble mean CFSv2 forecast initialized from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that assimilates observed
sea ice concentrations and other atmospheric and oceanic observations.
September Sea Ice Probability (SIP, the probability of sea ice concentration > 15 % at each grid cell), in the Slater, NRL - SSC / Metzger et al., and MetOffice / Peterson et al. forecas
Sea Ice Probability (SIP, the probability of sea ice concentration > 15 % at each grid cell), in the Slater, NRL - SSC / Metzger et al., and MetOffice / Peterson et al. forecas
Ice Probability (SIP, the probability of
sea ice concentration > 15 % at each grid cell), in the Slater, NRL - SSC / Metzger et al., and MetOffice / Peterson et al. forecas
sea ice concentration > 15 % at each grid cell), in the Slater, NRL - SSC / Metzger et al., and MetOffice / Peterson et al. forecas
ice concentration > 15 % at each grid cell), in the Slater, NRL - SSC / Metzger et al., and MetOffice / Peterson et al. forecasts.
Petty (NASA - GSFC / UMD), 4.12 (± 0.30), Statistical Based on an analysis of June
sea ice concentration data provided by the NSIDC (NASA Team), I forecast a 2016
September Arctic
sea ice extent of 4.12 + / - 0.30 million km2.
September pan Arctic
sea ice extent is calculated from predicted
sea ice concentration.
The forecast model uses past
sea ice concentration data to find regions of predictive importance for
September sea ice extent.
NMEFC of China (Li and Li), 4.02 (3.10 - 4.57), Statistical We predict the
September monthly average
sea ice extent of Arctic by statistic method and based on monthly sea ice concentration and extent from National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice extent of Arctic by statistic method and based on monthly
sea ice concentration and extent from National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice concentration and extent from National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
The model predicts that large negative
sea ice concentration anomalies (< -40 %) will occur in the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea in September 20
sea ice concentration anomalies (< -40 %) will occur in the Beaufort
Sea, Chukchi Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea in September 20
Sea, Chukchi
Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea in September 20
Sea, Laptev
Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea in September 20
Sea, Kara
Sea and Barents Sea in September 20
Sea and Barents
Sea in September 20
Sea in
September 2016.
Multi-year
sea ice has been reduced to such low levels that the overall
September sea ice extent is largely tied to the fate of the first - year
sea ice, which appears thin or with low
concentrations away from the central Arctic (see AMSR satellite data and the calculations by Lindsay and Rigor).
The statistical forecast submitted by Tivy for
September ice concentration anomalies in the Beaufort - Chukchi
Sea region has remained unchanged.
The use of a 15 % threshold on
sea ice concentration captures greater detail within the marginal
ice zone, matches NSIDC's threshold used for mapping overall
sea ice extent and should therefore provide a better estimate of the
September 2011
ice extent.
The August update submitted by Arbetter et al. for pan-arctic
ice concentration shows low
ice concentrations (1 to 3 - tenths) in the Chukchi
Sea in
September.
Although high
concentrations of
sea ice still remain in the central section of the passage, Howell predicts that this
ice will melt out by
September if above normal air temperatures and the rapid rate of decline observed in July persists through August.