So long as the banking / debt complex is not threatened, the worst you get is something like the deflation of the dot - com bubble, and at present, I don't see what it threatened by that aside from cryptocurrencies and
the short volatility trade.
Going back to where money goes to die, from the less mentioned portion on
the short volatility trade:
In this self - reflexive loop volatility can reinforce itself both lower and higher... The danger is that the multi-trillion-dollar
short volatility trade, in all its forms, will contribute to a violent feedback loop of higher volatility.»
The danger is that the multi-trillion-dollar
short volatility trade, in all its forms, will contribute to a violent feedback loop of higher volatility resulting in a hyper - crash.
The short volatility trade became outrageously overcrowded and there was simply a rush for the exit.
It's just the latest sign of confidence in
the short volatility trade, which has been one of the year's most popular and, by extension, crowded wagers.
Further outflows resulted from index option gamma hedging, covering of
short volatility trades, and volatility targeting strategies.
Not exact matches
One of the most vocal opponents of the
short -
volatility trade has been JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic.
MORE SHOES TO DROP: The stock slump led to a massive unwinding of a
short position in products related to the VIX
volatility index, as Credit Suisse and Nomura announced the shuttering of their respective exchange -
traded notes that bet on lower
volatility.
Already investor money is flooding into another
short -
volatility exchange -
traded note now that the Credit Suisse one is winding down, they said.
While some traders might have guarded their positions using contracts on the Cboe
Volatility Index (VIX), which
trades inversely to the S&P 500 roughly 80 % of the time, others have elected to
short exchange -
traded funds with broad market exposure.
That triggered a swift unwinding in the
short -
volatility trade as investors were forced to buy VIX to close their positions.
But
short - sellers may have regained an edge after a burst of market
volatility earlier this year fueled by fears of rising U.S. interest rates and the Trump administration's tough talk on
trade.
Rather than a shift in the economy, investors were dealing with a technical unwind of a particular
trade:
short -
volatility.
Although increased market
volatility might make traders more dependent on Bloomberg's services in the
short term, any contraction in global
trade and capital markets would inevitably lower demand for the company's services over time.
Various considerations offer caution about getting too
short, including the potential resurgence of risk asset
volatility as market yields rise and / or as Washington events evolve — ranging from the Mueller investigation to
trade tariffs.
Ethereum Classic experienced some
volatility today, but it continues to
trade slightly below the $ 16 resistance after breaking the rising
short - term trendline.
It could be that investors are losing patience and
trading more often, increasing
short - term
volatility in a long - term asset.
Trading short volatility via VIX - related ETFs is very popular nowadays but involves extreme tail risk.
*
Trading in Cryptocurrency CFDs involves a high risk of loss of funds over a
short period of time due to the extreme
volatility surrounding cryptocurrencies.
While it's certain that
short - term
volatility exchange
traded products (ETPs) like VXX, TVIX, and UVXY are doomed to march towards zero, their decay rates are not consistent.
Monero has been
trading similarly to ETC in the last few days, being stuck below the
short - term declining trendline and a
volatility compression pattern following the strong moves of the last week.
The
short vol
trade didn't just depend on low vol, it depended on an upward - sloping term structure of
volatility.
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Although BTC has been in a bear market since peaking in December, it still offers numerous
short term
trading opportunities due to its high
volatility.
Forget the FANG
trade,
shorting volatility has become the popular «pony» for institutional and retail traders.
The common element is that any long position taken in a specific equity is offset by a
short position in either a merger partner (risk arbitrage), an «overvalued» member of the same sector (long /
short paired
trading), a convertible bond (convertible arbitrage), a futures contract (index arbitrage) or an option contract (
volatility arbitrage).
Volatility is hugely enticing for many traders, offering the chance for quick gains (counteracted, of course, by the possibility of quick losses) and
short term
trading.
In fact, the CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its lowest level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price v
Volatility Index (VIX)
traded at its lowest level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's
short - term outlook for stock price
volatilityvolatility.
As equities have ground ever higher over the past year, very large
short -
volatility positions have been building in the markets — largely in
volatility - targeting strategies employed by institutional investors and leveraged exchange -
traded products geared toward individuals.
While
volatility created by ETFs might be painful over the
short - term through intra-day
trading anomalies, it may also create idiosyncratic valuation distortions for active managers to capture.
For traders seeking to profit from the increased
volatility in the market, they should ensure that their
trades are based on the
short - term perspective.
I don't day -
trade, I look at 1 hr charts and above, using higher time frames allows you to maintain clarity and gives you the power to map the markets with precision over the
short - term noise and
volatility.
Lastly, Saut and his Raymond James team anticipate an increase in
volatility and have recommended buying the iPath S&P 500 VIX
Short - Term Futures exchange
traded fund VXX or Mid-Term futures in VXZ.
«Identifying VXX / XIV Tendencies» finds that the
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), estimated as the difference between the current level of the S&P 500 implied volatility index (VIX) and the annualized standard deviation of S&P 500 Index daily returns over the previous 21 trading days (multiplying by the square root of 250 to annualize), may be a useful predictor of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - term Futures ETN (VXX) and VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short - term ETN (XIV
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), estimated as the difference between the current level of the S&P 500 implied
volatility index (VIX) and the annualized standard deviation of S&P 500 Index daily returns over the previous 21 trading days (multiplying by the square root of 250 to annualize), may be a useful predictor of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - term Futures ETN (VXX) and VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short - term ETN (XIV
volatility index (VIX) and the annualized standard deviation of S&P 500 Index daily returns over the previous 21
trading days (multiplying by the square root of 250 to annualize), may be a useful predictor of iPath S&P 500 VIX
Short - term Futures ETN (VXX) and VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX
Short - term ETN (XIV) returns.
Other free tools include a profit - and - loss calculator, a probability calculator (that uses implied
volatility to determine your likelihood of hitting your targets) and the Maxit Tax Manager, which identifies tax implications of
trading decisions (e.g., as
short - and long - term gains and losses, wash sales) for planning purposes and generates on - demand 1099 forms.
Most books on options are focused on
trading options and are concerned mostly with
short - term
volatility.
But in Forex, whether you're
trading long or
short, bull or bear, the
volatility of a currency pair tends to say about the same.
But going long and
short the same asset (in this case essentially the same asset), doesn't reduce
volatility, it reduces your exposure to
volatility (which you could have done by simply entering a smaller
trade to begin with).
There were a few
trading sessions where equities moved lower, haven assets rallied and
volatility spiked — all of which were
short - lived.
There is greater
volatility on the
short side of
trading.
Short term
trading strategies tend to do best when they focus on high
volatility stocks.
We see
volatility as an opportunity, particularly where the market is
trading on
shorter - term technical assumptions.
Trading short volatility via VIX - related ETFs is very popular nowadays but involves extreme tail risk.
You don't have to keep actively
trading (and spending the money in fees), and you don't have to worry about
short - term
volatility quite so much.
2) A lot of
trades over the past few years have been similar in nature, i.e. long risk assets =
short volatility.
Selling a put spread, also called a bull put spread, is a
short volatility / bullish
trade that makes money if the stock goes up, doesn't move, or doesn't go down significantly.
The common element is that any long position taken in a specific equity is offset by a
short position in either a merger partner (risk arbitrage), an «overvalued» member of the same sector (long /
short paired
trading), a convertible bond (convertible arbitrage), a futures contract (index arbitrage) or an option contract (
volatility arbitrage).
They also must have the necessary
trading attributes of
volatility, research, simplicity, ease of
short selling, specialization, opportunities, growth, and leverage.
You will recall that in our catastrophe insurance business, we are always ready to
trade increased
volatility in reported earnings in the
short run for greater gains in net worth in the long run.