Delworth, T.L., Mann, M.E., Observed and
Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661 - 676, 2000.
Delworth, T.L., and M.E. Mann, 2000: Observed and
simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere.
Not exact matches
They do a poor job at
simulating the observed modes of natural internal climate
variability (e.g. the
multidecadal ocean oscillations).
What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably
simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate
variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.
Current GCMs inadequate for
simulating natural internal
variability on
multidecadal time scales.
Whereas each model demonstrates some sort of
multidecadal variability (which may or may not be of a reasonable amplitude or associated with the appropriate mechanisms), the ensemble averaging process filters out the
simulated natural internal
variability since there is no temporal synchronization in the
simulated chaotic internal oscillations among the different ensemble members.