Single extreme events can not be simply and directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as there is always a finite chance the event in question might have occurred naturally.
I understand scientists can not attribute
a single extreme event to GW; it may in God - only - knows reality be due to GW, but scientists don't have the tools to make such a claim.
Such multihazard events may not even be exceptional; they may be at least as common, and perhaps more so, than the simplest scenario in which
a single extreme event exerts a single type of load.
We can't tie
a single extreme event to climate change.
Not exact matches
No
single weather
event — even an
extreme one — can be «caused» by climate change, as Vox's David Roberts has explained in detail.
«It offers a unique opportunity to explore whether a
single extreme - weather
event can re-shuffle an entire community of organisms.»
Trends are important because they eliminate - or «smooth out» -
single events that may be
extreme, but quite rare.
«In the past, a typical climate scientist's response to questions about climate change's role in any given
extreme weather
event was, «We can not attribute any
single event to climate change.»
«For a long time, the standard answer of climate scientists to an
extreme event was «we can't attribute
single events to climate change», which when you think about it is an incredibly naive position.
An
extreme example the breadth and diversity of
singles in America, but indicative of the challenge Match faces as they strike various
event partnerships, which will be super-important to the success of the
Events initiative.
What I do see, however, is a coming era where every
single unusual and / or
extreme weather
event gets blamed on «climate change» by die hard zealots, who then proceed to attack anyone and everyone who failed to take the
extreme measures they insisted on.
No
single weather
event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier
extreme precipitation
events.
In the past, a typical climate scientist's response to questions about climate change's role in any given
extreme weather
event was, «We can not attribute any
single event to climate change.»
This apparent inconsistency says little about the overall trend in the heaviest precipitation
events, but a lot about the weaknesses of
single - point measurements for detecting trends in
extreme precipitation.
For example, after an
extreme weather
event, scientists often carry out
single attribution studies to determine how the likelihood of such an
event could have been influenced by climate change and short - term climate variability.
Further, several factors usually need to combine to produce an
extreme event, so linking a particular
extreme event to a
single, specific cause is problematic.
The phrase, oft - repeated after
extreme weather
events «no
single weather
event can be attributed to climate change» applies to Haiyan as it does to any
extreme weather.
The press actually produced quite a bit of nuanced coverage, which explained that while it's impossible to peg any
single weather
event to climate change, many scientists felt that summer's
extremes would not have been possible without humanity's influence on the climate system.
This research shows how
extreme weather
events in a
single year could bring about price spikes of comparable magnitude to two decades of long - run price rises.
It remains the only paper to assess global economic losses from all types of
extreme weather
events, not just a
single source of hazard in one region.
One of the first studies to attribute a
single extreme weather
event to climate change was published just over a decade ago.
Trends are important because they eliminate - or «smooth out» -
single events that may be
extreme, but quite rare.
the current
event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with
single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years... In terms of cumulative severity, it is the worst drought on record -LRB--14.55 cumulative PDSI), more
extreme than longer (4 - to 9 - year) droughts.
As we continue developing new weather@home applications — regional climate models that look at particular
extreme weather
events — we will be moving to a policy of picking a
single operating system for each, rather than developing all models for all operating systems.
According to John Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Obama will emphasize the current scientific understanding of how, while no
single weather
event can be attributed to climate change, a warming climate can make things like drought more
extreme:
Whilst the extent of climate change is often expressed in a
single figure — global temperature — the effects of climate change (such as temperature, precipitation and the frequency of
extreme weather
events) will vary greatly from place to place.
Reichstein
singled out the ongoing drought in the Southwest as a particularly damaging
extreme weather
event that could affect ecosystems» carbon dioxide absorption in the U.S.
And while no
single event can be attributed directly to climate change, NASA climate scientist James Hansen notes that the
extreme weather of 2010 would «almost certainly not» have occurred in the absence of excessive greenhouse gas emissions.
Didactylos — Many different classes of
extreme events have fatalities dominated by a
single event; earthquakes comes to mind.
I sort of thought that no
extreme single event could be attributed to GW, bec GW is at a more macro statistical level, and I suppose there is a long tail in non-GW weather
event possibilities in which such an
event could have occurred under non-GW conditions.
David — We can probably agree that attribution of
extreme events is difficult because (1) they are uncommon, almost by definition, and therefore good data tends to be sparse, and (2) they are rarely due to a
single factor, but rather are associated with a confluence of conditions.
This so - called «meta - analysis» allows scientists to draw statistical significance from the combined studies even when a
single study might not be considered conclusive — in much the same sense that no
single weather
event can be said to result from climate change but the statistical trend indicates that more
extreme weather
events will become more frequent in a warming world.
While climatologists have long stated that it is not yet possible to blame a
single extreme weather
event on climate change, research is showing that rising temperatures are very likely increasing the chances of
extreme weather
events and worsening them when they occur.