Paper: Reference: Yun Qian, William I. Gustafson Jr., L. Ruby Leung, Steven J. Ghan, Effects of soot - induced
snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western U.S. based on WRF chemistry and regional climate simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2009, doi: 10.1029 / 2008JD011039
Ibid., pp. 393 — 96; Yun Qian et al., «Effects of Soot - Induced
Snow Albedo Change on Snowpack and Hydrological Cycle in Western United States Based on Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry and Regional Climate Simulations,» Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.
Not exact matches
They found that in regions where the amount of snowfall was low and any
snow that did settle was sublimating away, enough dust would have accumulated to
change the surface
albedo sufficiently so that the Earth absorbed sunlight and thawed (Journal of Geophysical Research — Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1029 / 2009jd012007, in press).
Hall, A. & Qu, X. Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain the
snow albedo feedback in future climate
change.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on
snow and ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature
change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface
albedo from more ice /
snow cover, and also
changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).
Model performance in reproducing the observed seasonal cycle of land
snow cover may provide an indirect evaluation of the simulated
snow -
albedo feedback under climate
change.
That is clearly the Milankovitch cycles that initiate the process — and CO2 and water vapor (along with
changes in
albedo due to
snow and vegetation) are both feedbacks.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use,
snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on
snow and ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
This implies a forcing of 3 W / m2 for
albedo changes presumably due to additional ice /
snow sheets.
, (3)
changes in surface
albedo of
snow & ice due to
changes in temperature and deposition of mineral and black carbon particulates, and last, but arguably most significantly (4) the intensity of the positive feedback that comes from the inevitable -LRB-?)
«Soot
snow / ice
albedo climate forcing is not included in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change evaluations.
For instance, the effect of soot making
snow and sea ice darker has a higher efficacy than an equivalent
change in CO2 with the same forcing, mainly because there is a more important ice -
albedo feedback in the soot case.
Since it reflects the capacity of the climate system to absorb heat, it may be influenced by the planetary
albedo (sea - ice and
snow) and ice - caps, which respond to temperature
changes.
(In the full 4 - dimensional climate, responses can also tend spread horizontally by convection (advection) and temporally by heat capacity, though «fingerprints» of horizontal and temporal variations in RF (externally imposed and feedback —
snow and ice
albedo, for example) can remain — this spreading is somewhat different as it relies in part on the circulation already present as well as circulation
changes)
Both are related to feedback mechanisms which can amplify or dampen initial
changes, such as the connection between temperature and the
albedo associated with sea - ice and
snow.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter
snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
It is not that the polar regions are amplifying the warming «going on» at lower latitudes, it is that any warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice -
albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice
albedo feedbacks associated with variations in
snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate
change at high northern latitudes...»
«Climate model simulations have shown that ice
albedo feedbacks associated with variations in
snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate
change at high northern latitudes...»
At best, maybe jetfuel would be on to something if the
change in seasonal ice /
snow cover in Canada is measurably altering the
albedo, as scaddenp notes, but I doubt we'll see jetfuel come up with any evidence showing the existence or magnitude of such an effect.
Snow doesn't «cool» Earth, decrease in insolation and
changes to
albedo does.
The Arctic provides an early indicator of global climate
change through feedback systems associated with factors such as the high
albedo of
snow and ice [Holland and Bitz, 2003].
AGW climate scientists seem to ignore that while the earth's surface may be warming, our atmosphere above 10,000 ft. above MSL is a refrigerator that can take water vapor scavenged from the vast oceans on earth (which are also a formidable heat sink), lift it to cold zones in the atmosphere by convective physical processes, chill it (removing vast amounts of heat from the atmosphere) or freeze it, (removing even more vast amounts of heat from the atmosphere) drop it on land and oceans as rain, sleet or
snow, moisturizing and cooling the soil, cooling the oceans and building polar ice caps and even more importantly, increasing the
albedo of the earth, with a critical negative feedback determining how much of the sun's energy is reflected back into space,
changing the moment of inertia of the earth by removing water mass from equatorial latitudes and transporting this water vapor mass to the poles, reducing the earth's spin axis moment of inertia and speeding up its spin rate, etc..
These algae can
change the
albedo of
snow, affecting the rate of Arctic snowmelt.
Earlier this year he and others pinpointed a
change in
albedo — a measure of the reflectivity of
snow on the island — that suggested that melting might accelerate.
* Plus 3.51 w / sq m from well - mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, land use
changes, black carbon,
snow albedo and aircraft contrails (anthropogenic)
The main
albedo change in the last 60 years is probably ice /
snow loss, which is another positive feedback to the
change and not independent.
ECS is normally defined to exclude effects of
changes in
albedo from shrinking ice and
snow cover.
There are, however, also slow feedbacks like the
change in surface
albedo from the reduction of
snow cover that contribute to TCS / ECS.
Despite this successful application of an emergent constraint, the generation of models that followed (CMIP5) continued to exhibit a large spread in seasonal variability of
snow -
albedo changes (Qu and Hall 2014).
Really the big question for me, once aware of all in http://s24.postimg.org/rbbws9o85/overview.gif and much else, is whether or not coming cooling in the 21st century will end with a somewhat brief LIA - like event, or, via amplification of cooling through further
albedo change from
snow cover rise then, continue far longer into a non-little Ice Age afterwards..
In other words, if the Greenland / Antarctic surface
albedo change were identified as a slow feedback, rather than as a fast - feedback
snow effect as it is in figure 7, the fast - feedback sensitivity at 1 — 4 × CO2 would be approximately 4 °C.
As you go towards the poles it becomes larger as well, because of the amplifying feedbacks of ice
albedo changes and reductions in
snow cover.
Recent research has shown that temperature
changes in the Arctic are magnified by feedback over and above the effect of
changing albedo due to reduced
snow and ice cover.
Changes in a region's
albedo - for example,
snow cover melting earlier in the season than it did previously - Could result in climate
change.
Given the rising pace at which ice and
snow in Greenland, Siberia, Alaska, and other Arctic regions are disappearing, the resulting
changes in
albedo may worsen global warming and its consequences.15, 16
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal
changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for
snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and
snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
Changes in a regions albedo - for example, snow cover melts earlier in the season than it did previously - climate changes could
Changes in a regions
albedo - for example,
snow cover melts earlier in the season than it did previously - climate
changes could
changes could follow.
If you have six feet of
snow or three inches of
snow the
albedo doesn't
change.
This could be CO2 / H2O GHG reinforcement,
changing albedo or
snow / ice cover, or something else.
Internal variability doesn't imply an absence of radiative forcing but includes
albedo changes from clouds, dust,
snow and ice, vegetation and volcanoes.
It's
albedo change from increased autumnal
snow cover at high northern latitudes.
However, possible use of seasonal
snow albedo feedback to evaluate
snow albedo feedback under climate
change conditions is of course dependent upon the realism of the correlation between the two feedbacks suggested by GCMs (Figure 8.16).
Ludicrous as it may sound to you, a rigorous system model of the effect upon surface temperatures from
albedo changes due to
snow / ice ablation will not have any feedback loop whatsoever back to the fundamental input of insolation.
The three studies, using different methodologies to estimate the global surface
albedo feedback associated with
snow and sea ice
changes, all suggest that this feedback is positive in all the models, and that its range is much smaller than that of cloud feedbacks.
Hall and Qu (2006) show that biases of a number of MMD models in reproducing the observed seasonal cycle of land
snow cover (especially the spring melt) are tightly related to the large variations in
snow albedo feedback strength simulated by the same models in climate
change scenarios.
Read more: Stanford University Aerosols Also Implicated in Glacier Melting,
Changing Weather Patterns Other research examining the effects of soot on melting glaciers and changing weather pattens in South Asia has reached similar conclusions: Beyond increasing atmospheric warming, because the soot coats the surface of the snow and ice it changes the albedo of the surface, allowing it to absorb more sunlight and thereby accelerating
Changing Weather Patterns Other research examining the effects of soot on melting glaciers and
changing weather pattens in South Asia has reached similar conclusions: Beyond increasing atmospheric warming, because the soot coats the surface of the snow and ice it changes the albedo of the surface, allowing it to absorb more sunlight and thereby accelerating
changing weather pattens in South Asia has reached similar conclusions: Beyond increasing atmospheric warming, because the soot coats the surface of the
snow and ice it
changes the
albedo of the surface, allowing it to absorb more sunlight and thereby accelerating melting.
You won't do it of course because I suspect you know just as well I that merely
changing 70 % of the planet's surface
albedo from the less than 1 % of the ocean to the 15 % of dirt and rocks will reflect enough additional shortwave energy away from the planet that the bloody thing will be covered in
snow faster than you can say Al Gore's Momma Wears Combat Boots.
It should be easy enough for you to do... You won't do it of course because I suspect you know just as well I that merely
changing 70 % of the planet's surface
albedo from the less than 1 % of the ocean to the 15 % of dirt and rocks will reflect enough additional shortwave energy away from the planet that the bloody thing will be covered in
snow faster than you can say Al Gore's Momma Wears Combat Boots.