Subsequent tests pointed to 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of crude oil at Tupi alone, the largest find since the massive Kashagan field in 2000 in Kazakhstan.
Not exact matches
Furthermore, they
pointed out that although TDOC failed a first
test, it passed a
subsequent test for its identity.
In Table 3, of the 96
tests for factors, only 2 have the «wrong» sign, with higher valuation
pointing to (negligibly) higher
subsequent returns; both instances of the «wrong» sign are in the emerging markets, for which we have shorter history, and are for the low beta factor, for which the current valuations, in the 99th percentile, are quite extreme relative to history.
For each dated forecast, we can track the
subsequent record, and use a suite of sequential statistical
tests to determine whether at some
point it is clear that the forecast is wrong at one of the respected levels of statistical significance.
The key
point is that large error bars in the TAVE (monthly) and
subsequent TAnom (Monthly) throws into insignificance all
tests in homogenization.