Sentences with phrase «such decadal changes»

«Such decadal changes seem to have the most impact» on civilisations, Büntgen says, because they harm agriculture but are not prolonged enough for people to adapt their behaviour.

Not exact matches

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

For the Earth's «fast» system, changes in decadal statistics can be computed on the basis of changes in forcing such as GHG's, without any need for knowledge of the initial conditions.

There has been a recent emphasis in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.

It is possible that such changes could significantly influence decadal tidal gauge trends, e.g., see Gratiot et al., 2008 (Abstract; Google Scholar access) or Currie, 1987 (Abstract).

The stadium wave holds promise in putting into perspective numerous observations of climate behavior, such as regional patterns of decadal variability in drought and hurricane activity, the researchers say, but a complete understanding of past climate variability and projections of future climate change requires integrating the stadium - wave signal with external climate forcing from the sun, volcanoes and anthropogenic forcing.

It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was an enhanced period of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth to the atmosphere.

The change in currents could further affect such climate phenomena as the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

These include solar - related chemical - based UV irradiance - related variations in stratospheric temperatures and galactic cosmic ray - related changes in cloud cover and surface temperatures, as well as ocean oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation that significant affect the climate.

Large - scale climate variations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are occurring at the same time as the global climate is changing.

It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was also an enhanced period of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere.

So using the criteria of «noticeable» climate change that would affect humanity and nature, that can be reasonably validated against the benchmark of the 1920 - 40 period by such records as instrumental and crop, or observations, and as being of a duration of at least one decade, we have some 15 decadal episodes of «noticeable» climate change, (up and down) between1538 and 2012.

Natural factors such as the Sun (84 papers), multi-decadal oceanic - atmospheric oscillations such as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers), decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and internal variability in general have exerted a significant influence on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.

We humans seem only to accept such changes on career or decadal scales.

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.