Not exact matches
has
decreased in winter, but no significant change in annual mean
precipitation potentially because of very slight increases in spring and fall
precipitation;
precipitation is projected to increase across Montana, primarily in spring; slight
decrease in
summer precipitation; variability of
precipitation year - to - year projected to increase
In that case (along with greater
precipitation, and the
precipitation belt moving to higher latitudes), there could be more snow in the winter & greater melting in the
summer (in higher latitudes), while I'd think the lower latitudes (with less precip) and the local mean temp being higher, would melt the glaciers faster, without adequate snowfall & low winter temps to slow this glacial
decrease.
A 1 degree average annual increase in
summer temperatures, or a 25 %
decrease in
precipitation?
In commenting on their findings, the three researchers write that «the large number of stable glacier termini and glacier advances is influenced by positive glacier mass balances in the central Karakoram during the last decade,» citing Gardelle et al. (2012, 2013) and Kaab et al. (2012), which they indicate is «induced by increasing winter
precipitation and
decreasing summer temperatures since the 1960s,» citing Archer and Fowler (2004), Williams and Ferrigno (2010), Bolch et al. (2012), Yao et al. (2012) and Bocchiola and Diolaiuti (2013).
As for how this could be — and in light of the findings of the references listed above — Rankl et al. reasoned that «considering increasing
precipitation in winter and
decreasing summer mean and minimum temperatures across the upper Indus Basin since the 1960s,» plus the «short response times of small glaciers,» it is only logical to conclude that these facts «suggest a shift from negative to balanced or positive mass budgets in the 1980s or 1990s or even earlier, induced by changing climatic conditions since the 1960s.»
But going into spring and
summer, soil should dry out more quickly (and it has been) given a
decreased warm month
precipitation and increased rate of evaporation.
2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring
precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and
decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average
precipitation.12, 2
Even in areas where
precipitation does not
decrease, these increases in surface evaporation and loss of water from plants lead to more rapid drying of soils if the effects of higher temperatures are not offset by other changes (such as reduced wind speed or increased humidity).5 As soil dries out, a larger proportion of the incoming heat from the sun goes into heating the soil and adjacent air rather than evaporating its moisture, resulting in hotter
summers under drier climatic conditions.6
The
decreases in
precipitation are statistically significant for both winter and
summer precipitation.
For example, in Siberia for the
summer season during the years 1936 to 1994 there was a statistically significant
decrease in total
precipitation of 1.3 % / decade, but the number of days with
precipitation also
decreased.
Decreases in
summer precipitation by up to 30 percent are expected across Germany by 2080, potentially leading to problematic heat and drought conditions in some areas and resulting in reduced crop yields and poor harvest quality.
Zhakarov's model is conceptually simple: during periods of high
precipitation when winter ice forms readily,
summer ice cover increases, the atmosphere cools, the arctic front together with its associated rain belt shifts south so that freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean
decreases, and winter ice cover is thicker, has a deeper draft, and so survives better in
summer.
In the tropics, an increase in
precipitation is projected by the end of the 21st century in the Asian monsoon and the southern part of the West African monsoon with some
decreases in the Sahel in northern
summer (Cook and Vizy, 2006), as well as increases in the Australian monsoon in southern
summer in a warmer climate (Figure 10.9).
Together with the progressive shortening of the ISM season and gradual southward retreat of the
summer ITCZ, the total amount of monsoon
precipitation decreased in those areas located at the northern fringe of the ISM domain, but increased in areas closer to the equator.
Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a)
summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January - June
precipitation levels are
decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate.
In Central and Eastern Europe,
summer precipitation is projected to
decrease, causing higher water stress.