Sentences with phrase «swan event as»

The financial crash of the U.S. housing market during the 2008 crisis is one of the most recent and well - known black swan events as of 2017.

With the tightly interconnected world of 7 + billion people, I think we can assume that there will be many Black Swan events as the systems to maintain those 7 + billion people become ever more complicated and subject to breaking down it a catastrophic way.

Not exact matches

As they walked, the two of them — Ibex's director and chief data scientist — were on the phone with a client and in passing mentioned rare, so - called black - swan events.

The state government has talked up the benefits of its transport plan for the new Perth Stadium, with up to 23,000 patrons expected to take one of the two bridges crossing the Swan River as they exit the stadium after an event.

Many would consider that a classic «black swan event» and the reaction would be «much more severe» than Brexit, which caused the S&P 500 Index to fall 5.3 percent in two days as benchmarks in Europe and elsewhere lost even more.»

While the black swan events can temporarily hurt your principle, as we saw even with things like 9 - 11, and LTCM, stock markets eventually recover their losses.

CBOE SKEW Index values, which are calculated from weighted strips of out - of - the - money S&P 500 options, rise to higher levels as investors become more fearful of a «black swan» event — an unexpected event of large magnitude and consequence.

We don't know whether this qualifies as a black swan event, but a drop of more than 4 % during a bull market is indeed very rare.

A black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately... Read more

[2] Forecasting involves identifying relevant factors and players, being mindful of the unknown «wildcards» and unforeseen «black swans», assessing the likely impact of any particular factor on one another and being able to quickly update assessments as events develop.

Black swans are catastrophic events that no one sees coming, while «grey swans,» as the are known, are extreme events for which there's no historical precedent, but that could still potentially be predicted.

As SXSW descends upon Austin, Texas, Onnit announces its plans to make a big splash on the scene with several events, including a live music event at Black Swan Yoga, product launch and podcast at...

The Oktoberfest inspired event is returning for it's third year as the ultimate Swan Valley experience.

Los Angeles — «Black Swan,» a melodrama set in the ballet world, took center stage among the nominees for the Critics» Choice Movie Awards, an event that has surpassed the Golden Globes as a leading Oscar predictor.

The mainstream application to finance came about in 2007 when Naseem Taleb, In his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, used Black Swans as a metaphor for the low probability of destructive events with extreme negative returns occurring in financial markets.

The term came about from the Roman satirist Juvenal who used «rare birds», such as «white ravens» and «black swans», as a synonym for «unimaginable» events.

In his book Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb defined Black Swan (the term refers to the once prevalent old world belief that all swans are white, which was proven false when black swans were discovered in Australia) as a rare event that is (1) unexpected (2) carries an extreme impact and (3) believed to be predictable in hindsight.

But you shouldn't view the sudden death of a spouse as a «black - swan» event coming out of the blue.

They follow a standard index - tracking strategy and use stock options as built - in portfolio insurance in case a rare Black Swan event sinks the markets.

The fact, three years on from when his book was written, this alleged black swan event hasn't happened and in fact multiple of the currencies he recommended as a «hedge» have tanked against the dollar (Canadian dollar) or have seen extreme swings (Australian dollar) tells you everything you need to know about this «hedge» strategy.

Additionally, Nassim Taleb, in his now famous work The Black Swan discussed the disconnect between traditional statistical measures (such as standard deviation) and the occurrence of extreme events

While Black Swan Events must be a surprise by definition, based on recent history, I think there are several possible events that «experts» have disregarded as not being able to happen, that in reality, could very easily happen in the next dEvents must be a surprise by definition, based on recent history, I think there are several possible events that «experts» have disregarded as not being able to happen, that in reality, could very easily happen in the next devents that «experts» have disregarded as not being able to happen, that in reality, could very easily happen in the next decade.

Mark Fulton, Research Advisor to Carbon Tracker: «What our blueprint advances is a risk management process that tests for what could be seen as an «orderly» energy transition and considers a «disorderly» one where change is abrupt, a so - called «black swan» event, that tests business models to the limit, potentially destroying shareholder value in the process.»

A black swan is defined as an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.

«What our blueprint advances is a risk management process that tests for what could be seen as an «orderly» energy transition and considers a «disorderly» one where change is abrupt, a so - called «black swan» event, that tests business models to the limit, potentially destroying shareholder value in the process.»

If one or several models predict Black Swan events, like unprecedented extended droughts in some region over the next century, that should not be ignored, but added as a possible scenario.

Your point about non-Gaussian distributions seems to reinforce the idea that hindsight shows that Black Swan events not only could, but should have been predicted as possible outcomes.

I agree that global warming itself shouldn't be regarded as a black swan, although if some of the more alarming sensitivity predictions were to be true with accompanying extreme weather events, then it might arguably be a black swan.

If James Marusek's work on extreme events in the last 2000 events was used as a reference base, it's likely that no black swan would be identified in the current period.

These could be regarded as «black goat events», perhaps the opposite of «black swan events» in that the former were entirely predictable and potentially preventable.

To treat these events as Black Swans, therefore, is to repose continued trust in the opinion of a group of people who ought long ago to have forfeit it, simply because they were largely successful in shouting down dissent.

A Black Swan event in solar physics and a what may eventually be seen as a totally unforeseen Black Swan event in the evolution of climate science?

So, going back to so - called «black swan» theory and the events that characterise it, how does it help us to understand occurrences such as the two I described above?

Very few examples in this analysis can be regarded as black swan events or circumstances, e.g. the accidental fall to his death of Garry Hoy, managing partner of Holden Day, Toronto.

Gold is commonly held because it is used as protection against black swan economic events.