Sentences with phrase «tcr uncertainty ranges»

Not exact matches

Lewis then argues that the large uncertainty ranges in E and in aerosol forcing make it the TCR estimates «worthless».

Choosing lower and upper limits that encompass the range of these results and deflating significance levels in order to account for structural uncertainty in the estimate leads to the conclusion that it is very unlikely that TCR is less than 1 °C and very unlikely that TCR is greater than 3.5 °C.

The numbers that, when run through a straightforward model give a «TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17 — 83 and 5 — 95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25 — 2.45 and 1.05 — 4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05 — 1.80 and 0.90 — 2.50 K»?

al. (2013) provides a best estimate of TCR = 1.3 o C with an uncertainty range of 0.9 — 2o C.

and «no data or computer code appears to be archived in relation to the paper» and «the sensitivity of Shindell's TCR estimate to the aerosol forcing bias adjustment is such that the true uncertainty of Shindell's TCR range must be huge — so large as to make his estimate worthless» and the seemingly arbitrary to cherry picked climate models used in Shindell's analysis.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Scientific Report (AR5).

Further, I like what Nic Lewis has taken on in attempting to limit the ranges of uncertainty for ECS and TCR.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750 — 2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system.

Also, it is very clear (from the SOD) that there is little dispute about the range of the TCR, but there is still uncertainty about the long tail of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, which (according to the SOD) is still kind of determined by an «expert consensus».

Using 1859 — 1882 for the base period and 1995 — 2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17 — 83 and 5 — 95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25 — 2.45 and 1.05 — 4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05 — 1.80 and 0.90 — 2.50 K. Results using alternative well - matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing.