It is more plausible that the models are running hot, that the aerosol data is botched, that
the TOA data has issues etc etc because we are trying to estimate highly spatially variable values for all global quantities with very few measurements.
The end result to me, based on the earlier manually collected data and the current Triton /
TOA data seems to suggest that yes there have been recent instances of warming and cooling; however, this does not mean that the present cooling is reaching cool levels in the pre-1997 range.
Not exact matches
While the
TOA observations show far less agreement with the NODC and Hadley Centre OHC
data sets, after 2004 they demonstrate moderate agreement with PMEL / JPL / JIMAR
data sets (as determined by statistical analysis).
Changes in the planetary and tropical
TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat - storage
data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing.
, you will be aware that their findings, as well as demonstrating the wobbly spatial / temporal net
TOA fluxes, also show that their satellite
data needs yet more accuracy to «constrain cloud feedback.»
Of course, we know
TOA fluxes must continue to warm globally on a decadal basis because we have OHC
data.
A watching brief would be strongly recommended with this
data, except it is not the only measure of
TOA ERB.
the drop in
TOA ERB at the start of the CERES
data may be nothing to do with any BNO (R) drop, and could be simply the last half of an oscillation as we see occuring 2008 - 2014.
At least relative to my questions above, what struck me was the possibility of starting with your reduction and analysis of the snow cover / fall anomaly
data to come up with a research project based on some quite complicated but fascinating calculations on net
TOA energy balance as a result of your conclusion about the relation of Arctic sea ice loss to NH snow cover / amount anomaly.
Kiehl and Trenberth published their Earth Energy Budgets showing a
TOA imbalance of 0.9 + / -0.15 Wm - 2 with their graphic implying that at the surface as well, then they complain about the lack of accuracy in the instrumental
data.
the values of this funciton shows the expected increase in
TOA watts / meter squared based on the previous 3 decades of
data going forward the decadel rate of
TOA based on accumulation rates are (will be): 0.090848 1978 - 1988 0.137779 1988 - 1998 0.346731 1998 - 2008 (0.872576 2008 - 2018)(2.195904 2018 - 2028)(5.526165 2028 - 2038)(13.90702 2038 - 2048)
However, a second order polynomial function fits the
data with an R ^ 2 value of 1.0 the equation for this function is y =.1243 * x ^ 2 -.2485 * x +.2175 the values of this funciton shows the expected increase in
TOA watts / meter squared based on the previous 3 decades of
data going forward the decadel rate of
TOA based on accumulation rates are (will be):
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include
data from the deep ocean in order to reconcile global heat content and the
TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
Our original draft blog post noted that DK12 had effectively been «pre-bunked,» as several recent studies have reconciled global heat content
data with top of the atmosphere (
TOA) energy imbalance measurements with no evidence of a long - term slowdown in global warming.
The silly chart from Wong et al 2006 — which was essentially the critical study for
TOA radiation for AR4 — stops in 2004 because that's when Josh Willis»
data runs out.
One way to illustrate this is to look at the
data Florent Brient and I analyzed in another emergent - constraint paper, which used fluctuations in
TOA energy fluxes in marine tropical low - cloud (TLC) regions and their correlation with ECS (Brient and Schneider 2016, see blog post).
According to CERES
data TOA IR or longwave radiation from the
TOA to space is increasing.
The
TOA flux, however, still is positive, and the context of later years (and updated
data) shows the 1998 peak to be very short lived and hardly followed by any significant decline at all.
-- robust radiative physics — ground - based instrumental evidence that CO2 absorbs and therefore emits IR exactly in accordance with the physical theory — satellite
data confirming this — satellite
data apparently indicating a radiative imbalance at
TOA — robust measurements of the fraction of atmospheric CO2 — increasing global OHC since the mid-C20th
Dessler (2011) used observational
data (such as surface temperature measurements and ARGO ocean temperature) to estimate and corroborate these values, and found that the heating of the climate system through ocean heat transport was 20 times larger than
TOA energy flux changes due to cloud cover over the period in question.
We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite
data that the top - of - atmosphere (
TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought.
But as I said above — you can't get any idea of what is happening without
data on radiant flux at
TOA.
Based on CERES - EBAF
data calibrated to Argo OHC up to July the 2008 - 2017 average
TOA imbalance is going to be about 0.9 W / m2, Berkeley Earth Land + Ocean global average about 1.01 K difference from 1860 - 1879, forcing updated using NOAA AGGI to about 2.3 W / m2.
Are the GCM calculations of the radiative - energy budget at the
TOA in accord with measured
data?
It is the raw Argo
data — gridded and volumetrically weighted — with implications as I said for radiative imbalances at
toa.
Higher sensitivity staellities measure radiation at
TOA could provide the
data in around 20 years or so based on a cool presentation I listedn to at AGU.
This has been documented by the
data of Martin Wild and others demonstrating a reduction in «solar surface radiation» during that interval — i.e, a reduction in that fraction of sunlight incident on the
TOA that reached the surface under both clear sky and all - sky conditions.
«Our results demonstrate how synergistic use of satellite
TOA radiation observations and recently improved ocean heat content measurements, with appropriate error estimates, provide critical
data for quantifying short - term and longer - term changes in the Earth's net
TOA radiation imbalance.
But that is not what satellite
data are telling us: Trenberth et al (2009)-- ... Trenberth et al (2014)-- http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1» ANSWER: quote from Trenberth 2014 conclusion: «From the estimates discussed here, it is clear that the net energy imbalance at
TOA varies naturally in response to weather and climate variations, the most distinctive of which is ENSO.
«There is a
TOA imbalance of 6.4 W m - 2 from CERES
data and this is outside of the realm of current estimates of global imbalances (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005; Huang 2006) that are expected from observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The sensitivity of the models is, as I think you are saying, constrained by it's parametrizations, which are bounded by observational
data on
TOA radiation
data etc. (although not all very tightly constrained) but this is not what is being questioned about the models, rather the issue is whether the model hindcasts matching historical temperatures to some degree is evidence that they have correct physics, or is merely a result of modelers making the choices for inputs which will produce a reasonable result.
The Wong et al plot shows the best
data available on ocean heat storage and
toa radiant flux pre 2000.
To close the energy budget needs
data on
toa radiant flux.
The average annual excess of net
TOA radiation constrained by OHC is 0.6 ± 0.4 Wm — 2 (90 % confidence) since 2005 when Argo
data14 became available, before which the OHC
data are much more uncertain14.
And all of the published land surface temperature include not only proxy
data, but also homogenization,
TOA and various other adjustments that are basically done arbitrarily, on a whim, and without justification and proper documentation.
From all the
data I have found, the current Satellite
data indicates less then a
TOA deviation of less then +0.003 deviation.
I've not processed all of the
data on a gridded basis, but if you want particular tas or
TOA radiative imbalance
data email me and I'll see if I can help.
Comparison with independent
data, such as the top of atmosphere (
TOA) radiative balance also provides insight (32).
You might get better results using
data starting in 1850 (or 1851 — there is a slight jump) rather than 1900, and
TOA radiative imbalance rather than ocean heat content
data, for your analysis.
I compltely agree with you about the use of OHC rather than
TOA radiative imbalance
data, and the lack of benchmark values for the forcing from a doubling of CO2.
For equilibrium efficacies, I show estimates both from the raw
data (save for iRF), and with the ocean heat uptake ΔQ divided by 0.86 to estimate the full
TOA imbalance ΔN and the GISS - E2 - R equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.3 °C replaced by its effective climate sensitivity, taken as 2.0 °C.
To further the understanding of all interested readers, please provide a like plot
data for back radiation and associated surface temperatures at all corresponding
ToA intervals.
I went to the CMIP archive to see if I could get the top - of - atmosphere (
TOA) forcing for the GISS model month by month, but the GISS folks didn't archive that
data.
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