Not exact matches
Climate change
projections that
look ahead one or two centuries show a rapid rise in
temperature and sea level, but say little about the longer picture.
Whereas most studies
look to the last 150 years of instrumental data and compare it to
projections for the next few centuries, we
looked back 20,000 years using recently collected carbon dioxide, global
temperature and sea level data spanning the last ice age.
A recent analysis
looked at historical damage to food crops from high
temperatures during the growing season alongside
projections of future warming.
None of this «oh, natural variation and cool spells are expected to interrupt the warming (for more than a year or two)» crap... that's not what has been predicted, and if
temperatures do not rebound in a big way soon, AGW
projections will continue to
look foolish.
that's not what has been predicted, and if
temperatures do not rebound in a big way soon, AGW
projections will continue to
look foolish.
Look at their
temperature projection record.
Since CO2 has a logarithmic correlation to temp, take a
look at what the Paris agreement would do to the actual
temperature projections.
The wiggles make the
projections look like a «real»
temperature series, but how did they get there?
Seems to disprove my theory above... they are perhaps just doing the usual «here is a proxy
temperature record, now please
look over here at the model «
projections»..
While the lofty goal of the landmark Paris climate agreement was to prevent global
temperatures from rising 2 °C, it's increasingly unlikely the world will pull that off (see «Global warming's worst - case
projections look increasingly likely»).
It
looks likely to escape extreme
temperatures rises of 10 °C or more seen elsewhere (see map, top right), but rainfall
projections paint a more troubling picture.
Model
projections show that surface and air
temperatures will continue to rise in coming decades, so planners in Rio's government are
looking for ways to offset heat - island effects.
4) the end results on the bottom of the first table (on maximum
temperatures), clearly showed a drop in the speed of warming that started around 38 years ago, and continued to drop every other period I
looked / /... 5) I did a linear fit, on those 4 results for the drop in the speed of global maximum temps, versus time, ended up with y = 0.0018 x -0.0314, with r2 = 0.96 At that stage I was sure to know that I had hooked a fish: I was at least 95 % sure (max)
temperatures were falling 6) On same maxima data, a polynomial fit, of 2nd order, i.e. parabolic, gave me y = -0.000049 × 2 + 0.004267 x — 0.056745 r2 = 0.995 That is very high, showing a natural relationship, like the trajectory of somebody throwing a ball... 7)
projection on the above parabolic fit backward, (10 years?)
It
looks like some sort of hybrid between AR4
projections for tropical sea
temperature increase and global average surface
temperature rise.
In other words, the lower panel is what the IPCC
temperature projections should have
looked like.
Let's also
look at the specific IPCC quote that Mr. Romm furnishes us with: «As global average
temperature increase exceeds about 3.5 °C [relative to 1980 to 1999], model
projections suggest significant extinctions (40 - 70 % of species assessed) around the globe.»
According to the WWF, top climate scientists have
looked at the information and found that the effects of the melting ice on climate is going to more severely impact
temperatures worldwide than other
projections put forward so far, including even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 assessment.
Let's
look in more detail at the paper's key figure, the one that
looks at past and (forecast) future global
temperatures, «Hindcast / forecast decadal variations in global mean
temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model
projections» (click to enlarge)
Also
look at the regional
projections (which do have greater uncertainty) and you'll see that seasonally and annually, the Libyan desert and the Sahara region of Africa are going to get hotter, but the increase in
temperature there will be dwarfed by the
temperature increases around the Arctic Ocean.