Not exact matches
He calculates that the
stock market will climb roughly 10 % followed by a decline over the long
term of about 60 %, with the
market peaking shortly after the U.S. presidential election and before the end of 2017.
The S&P 500 and global
stock markets may have found a near
term peak, but how does that matter when trading the Forex
market?
One of the reasons that
stocks appear so attractive at the
peak of a bull
market is that most investors fail to properly measure long -
term growth.
Since the Euro - Stoxx index has never regained its 2015
peak, there are now both long
term and short
term bearish divergences in place vs. the US
stock market.
It is also because if
stock markets have made long -
term peaks then the commodities
markets are likely to be among the main beneficiaries of future monetary inflation.
Taking the context in real
terms, it implies that the margin debt of the NYSE amount currently to about 2.87 % of US GDP, surpassing the previous all - time high of 2.78 % which has been set at the
peak of the biggest
stock market bubble in global history, in March 2000.
As I've noted before, for an investor looking to capture all the
market's long -
term returns with substantially less downside risk, it would actually have been enough, historically, to simply step out of the
market on a price /
peak multiple of 19 and then wait for a 30 % plunge before repurchasing
stocks, even if that meant staying out of the
market for years in the interim.
Evidence is accumulating that the
stock market has hit an intermediate -
term peak amid the deepening European sovereign debt crisis, signs of slower U.S. economic growth and the imminent end to the Federal Reserve's liquidity injections.
Going for the Gold Valuing Foreign Currencies Estimating the Long -
Term Return on
Stocks The Importance of Measuring Returns
Peak - to -
Peak Hussman Price /
Peak - Earnings Ratio Featured in Barron's Magazine The Two Essential Elements of Wealth Accumulation Mutual Fund Brokerage Fees and Trading Costs The Use (and Abuse) of Short -
Term Performance Bear
Market Insights How and Why Options Should be Expensed from Corporate Earnings
He calculates that the
stock market will climb roughly 10 % followed by a decline over the long
term of about 60 %, with the
market peaking shortly after the U.S. presidential election and before the end of 2017.
From the share price
peak in 1905, we saw bull and bear
markets aplenty, but the bear
market of 1982 (and the accompanying stagflation binge) saw share prices in real
terms fall below the levels first reached in 1905 — a 77 - year span with no price appreciation in U.S.
stocks.