This illustration reveals that REITs outperformed the S&P 500 in more than half of the episodes of rising
Treasury yields over the period 1992Q1 to 2017Q4.
Apart from the virtues of an ETF like TBT that can be godsend in a bond market sell - off, it's worth pulling back and looking at
Treasury yields over the longer term.
A chart of 10 - year
Treasury yields over the past month captures the entirety of the recent move that has created so much anxiety.
Brazil and Mexico 10 - year
Treasuries both yield over 6 %.
The chart below shows the decline in the US
Treasury yield over the last 21 years split between the real yield, as estimated by the Bloomberg Barclays US Inflation Linked Bonds Average Annual Yield, and the level of inflation expectations implied by the 10 - year nominal Treasury Bond yield.
Not exact matches
LONDON, April 30 - The 10 - year U.S.
Treasury yield's rise above 3 percent last week for the first time in
over four years may be cause for concern across wide swathes of financial markets, such as equities and emerging markets.
That's exactly what has happened
over the last month, as shown in this graph of the
yield on the 10 year US
treasury bond for the last year (keep in mind that
yields going up means prices going down):
However, rates have retreated from
over 8 percent in the last several weeks, and the credit risk of high -
yield bonds can offer some diversification from the interest - rate risk of a portfolio of
Treasury bonds.
The average
yield on the 10 - year
Treasury note
over the past 30 years is 4.834 percent, still well above current levels.
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters)- The 10 - year U.S.
Treasury yield's rise above 3 percent last week for the first time in
over four years may be cause for concern across wide swathes of financial markets, such as equities and emerging markets.
Concern remained
over higher bond
yields after the
yield on the U.S. 10 - year
Treasury breached 3 percent level on Tuesday, making equities relatively less attractive.
Treasury prices rose on Tuesday, pushing
yields higher, as fears
over the U.S.'s protectionist policies makes a return on reports that the White House may crack down on Chinese investments in American tech companies.
Treasury yields inched higher Tuesday as a global rally for assets perceived as risky suggested that fears
over a trade conflict between China and the U.S. were easing following a speech by China's President Xi Jinping.
Brian Sack and Robert Elsasser explain that
over most of the post-1997 period,
yields on TIIS have been surprisingly high relative to
yields on comparable nominal
Treasury securities.
Bottom line: with
Treasury yields expected to modestly rise (and prices to correspondingly decrease)
over the course of 2018, we think high
yield is an attractive place to be in the fixed - income space.
To the extent that lower
Treasury yields are even weakly associated with higher equity valuations, recognize that this effect is also expressed
over time as lower subsequent stock market returns.
Dividends on the Dow Jones Index are
yielding about 2.6 %, a full half a percentage point
over the 10 - year
Treasury.
Over the weekend, Jeff Gundlach, the CEO of investment services firm DoubleLine told Barron's that he believed the 10 - year
Treasury yield could test the 2012 low of 1.38 percent if the price of oil fell below $ 40 a barrel.
By 1970 the 10 year
treasury yield was all the way up to 7.8 %, eventually reaching
over 15 % in the early 1980s.
Today, those bonds
yield just
over 3 %; the 10 - year
Treasury currently generates about 2.3 % (source: Bloomberg, as of 10/19/2017).
From a historical perspective, it has been rare for U.S.
Treasury securities to provide real
yields much
over about 2 % annually.
But this week the 10 - year
Treasury lost roughly 1.4 points, which translated into a 15 basis point jump in its
yield to 2.84 % The long bond closed
over 3 %.
1: Widening credit spreads: An increase
over the past 6 months in either the spread between commercial paper and 3 - month
Treasury yields, or between the Dow Corporate Bond Index
yield and 10 - year
Treasury yields.
The benchmark 10 - year U.S.
Treasury Note has moved from a
yield of 2.06 percent on November 9, 2016 to a
yield of a tad
over 3 percent earlier this week.
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared equity and bond
yields over multiple business cycles and found that the 10 - year
Treasury yield might have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is likely this year) before compelling a year - end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current year - end target of 2800 - 2900.2
Consequently, U.S.
Treasury yields have,
over the last 30 years, declined more than high - quality corporate debt
yields,
yields on productive business capital and S&P 500 earnings.
Also, the
yield on the 10 - year
Treasury note was
over 6 % 15 years ago versus roughly 2 % today, making the risk premium of stocks versus bonds much higher today than it was then.
On the
yield measures, we've had some relief for
Treasury yields in the past couple of weeks, but we've also seen a significant spike in the
yield on many industrial bonds
over that same period, including issues in the Dow 20 Bond Average.
The 2000 peak was accompanied by 10 - year
Treasury bond
yields over 6.5 %.
Over the last 50 years, the real one - and 10 - year
Treasury yields have fluctuated around the dividend
yield (Graph 9, left - hand panel).»
From the Wall Street Journal: «Since 1926 he notes (Bogle), the entry
yield on the 10 - year
treasury explains 92 % of the annualized return an investor would have earned
over the next decade.»
This is the difference between the 5 - year nominal
treasury yield and the 5 - year TIPs
yield and is suppose to reflect
treasury market's forecast for the average annual inflation rate
over the next five years.
However, with
yields from
treasury bonds now at a little
over 1.5 %, many investors are looking for other ways to create income in retirement.
The Strategic Total Return Fund moved the bulk of its assets from short - term
Treasury securities to
Treasury inflation protected securities as real
yields on these securities surged well
over 3 %.
The
yield on the 10 - Year
Treasury note is
over 2.85 percent.
Intermediate - term
Treasury prices reflect a
yield - to - maturity of about 2 percent
over the next decade.
Finally, since October 2008, the Fed has been paying interest on bank reserves, at rates generally exceeding the
yield on
Treasury securities, thereby giving them reason to favor cash reserves
over government securities for all their liquidity needs.
The amount of extra
yield over Treasuries provided by high
yield bonds recently was 3.22 %, which is the lowest it has been in 10 years and makes some investors cautious.
Ten - year
Treasury yields hit a seven - month high during October, but receded somewhat amid uncertainty
over who will lead the Federal Reserve going forward.
The Dow and S&P indexes suffered some of their worst losses of the year last week, and a shocking price move in the bond market sent the benchmark 10 - year
Treasury yield below 2 percent, the lowest level in
over a year.
Yield spreads between emerging market sovereign debt and US
Treasuries have remained relatively low
over the past three months in most markets (Graph 12).
After being relatively stable at around 4 per cent
over April, US
yields on 10 - year
treasury bonds fell to 3.1 per cent by mid June (Graph 9).
Perceptually, households have decreased their direct ownership of
Treasuries as
yield levels have fallen
over the decades.
Banks and Insurance companies appear to have been very rational in their portfolio management of
Treasury holdings
over time, cutting back as
yield levels fell
over multi-decade periods.
Interestingly, pension fund ownership of
Treasuries as a percentage of the whole has been remarkably stable
over time, dipping in the recent period as
yields hit generational lows.
But it's essential to contain ones exuberance as regional risk can easily entangle in higher US
yields, but so far the push in
treasury yields has not been intense enough to cause a substantial adverse shift in risk sentiment, but caution prevails as the move higher in US Bond
yields could be far from
over.
Based on the data below, for each 1 % increase in the 10 - year U.S.
Treasury yield, STORE capital's dividend
yield can be expected to rise by about 1.47 %, meaning the share price would be expected to decline (perhaps somewhat meaningfully)
over the short - term.
If one excludes the 1980 - 1997 period, the historical correlation between 10 - year
Treasury yields and 10 - year prospective (and actual realized) equity returns is actually slightly negative
over the past century, and is only weakly positive in post-war data.
Many have attributed the recent increase in
Treasury yields to concern
over the growing U.S.
Treasury debt burden and the higher debt - to - GDP (gross domestic product) ratio that is expected to result from recent U.S. fiscal policies.
The graph below shows the performance of
Treasuries, equities and high
yield over the past year.