Our fourth open position in the model trading account, PowerShares
U.S. Dollar Bull Index ($ UUP) long, is also showing an unrealized gain, but has a low correlation to the direction of the equities markets either way.
Not exact matches
And what's remarkable about this
bull market since it began is that on a cumulative basis, not a single
dollar of net new money has come into
U.S. equity [funds].
After hitting a 6 - year high against the
U.S. dollar in 2017, it appears the euro
bull run may be coming to an end, pulling back nearly 4 percent against its rival over the past three months
Conversely, in a
bull correction the
U.S. dollar typically strengthens against emerging market currencies and the yen doesn't budge.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current
bull market has now outlived the median and average
bull, yet at higher valuations than most
bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for
U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the NASDAQ top in 2000, the new gold
bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, and the
U.S. dollar bottom in 2011.
Then, like now, an ongoing secular
bull market was enjoying a deregulatory tailwind, a weak
U.S. dollar, a relatively stable interest rate environment, and solid organic real growth that led to a collapsing output gap.
One of the more popular currency ETFs for gold
bulls is the PowerShares DB
U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN).