Following from your logic, if you haven't answered my other points on how
UHI bias can be eliminated, can I take it you agree that the problem can be satisfactorily handled?
Every station should have reference stations added at the nearest pristine location near it, and
the UHI bias measured and subtracted from the trend.
Even the UAH numbers will include
UHI bias.
That, too, expands the effect of land temperature on the global estimate, including expanding the effect of
any UHI bias.
I'd say the truth for
UHI bias lies between Jones -LRB-.
There is accurate CO2 data but only since 1958 at Mauna Loa, as for temperature, well there are thousands of high quality rural weather stations throughout the world and especially in the US and the northern hemisphere that have long histories and
NO UHI bias.
@John S: 1) The synthesized HADCRUT3 index, whose observational basis is very paltry prior to WWII and is corrupted by systematic
UHI bias, is not a bona fide temperature time - series — let alone «climate» per se.
1) The synthesized HADCRUT3 index, whose observational basis is very paltry prior to WWII and is corrupted by systematic
UHI bias, is not a bona fide temperature time - series — let alone «climate» per se.
And, the BEST temperature reconstruction still contains
UHI bias.
The way to take
UHI bias properly into account is to completely separate urban temp measurements from the rural measurements — problem solved.
``... since most people actually live in / on these UHI affected areas, perhaps
a UHI bias needs to be taken into account?
That being said, since most people actually live in / on these UHI affected areas, perhaps
a UHI bias needs to be taken into account??? If not, then I'll go with RSS!!!
The person playing a climatologist in the video claimed
the UHI bias was a big factor in global warming.
It can also be demonstrated that
the UHI biases the thermometers upwards.
Not exact matches
The question isn't whether
UHI contributes to surface temperature rise, but whether it affect temperature measurements sufficiently to
bias the measured averages.
[Response: You're missing the point, which is that the
UHI is accepted, of course, but the point at issue is whether it affects temperature * trends *, which a constant
bias doesn't.
See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=43 for information about the
UHI not causing the temperature record to be
biased.
That means using meta - data, using corrections of known
biases, comparing near - by stations, correcting for
UHI etc..
So
UHI provided a negative temperature
bias?
The most likely explanation being that the land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a
biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for
UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
The most likely explanation being that teh land based thermometer record has become inaccurate due to station drop out, particularly high latitude drop out, a
biasing towards airport stations, poor station siting and a failure to properly allow for
UHI which is having an ever increasing impact upon post 1960s temperatures because of not simply an increase in urbanisation but also the drop out of rural stations and the ever increasing percentage of airport stations and airports have so greatly changed during the 1970s and 1980s.
It shouldn't be surprising that the
UHI effect is not a big source of error in the temperature trend, because a stable temperature
bias because of bad siting will not affect the trend.
Lighthouses would appear to an excellent source of data free from
UHI and other
biases.
«[NASA is] supposed to make a «homogenisation adjustment,» to allow for [urban heat island (
UHI)-RSB-
bias,» Homewood wrote.
It strikes me as ridiculous that
UHI can be claimed not to
bias the temperature record upwards.
Related to sampling
bias, skeptics argued that there was
bias due to
UHI.
It may be that
UHI in and of itself is minor, or that the direct effects are only the
bias upon the sampling, known or not, corrected or not.
They have said above (in their replies, but not in the paper itself) that that particular AGW signal is bounded by a maximum of.66 C per century, and that the AGW signal may come from (1) a recent CO2 increase — which you are apparently assuming is the sole source), (2) measurement error /
bias (
UHI and bad thermometer sites) and (3) other causes.
Also to be considered is whether the site is included within a region that is or becomes urban, in which case the
UHI adjustments mentioned previously may cancel out any
bias completely.
It shows that the CRU and NOAA failures to make
UHI adjustments along the lines of GISS are introducing a substantial
bias in these records.
As I am understanding it this
bias exists as GISS is currently adjusting their data for
UHI effects.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data» in those trends (what the earth's temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (
UHI increases in the temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice land records, extrapolated land records over hundreds of km, surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation
bias changes in the information.)
NASA's «GISS» temp uses land and ocean - based thermometers which measure «different parts of the system [
UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we
bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we «homogenise» our data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the global warming narrative].»
What the
UHI accomplishes is, it gives a
bias toward higher temperatures, due to the placement of thermometers in relation to the
UHI effects.
These surface networks have had so many changes over time that the number of stations that have been moved, had their time of observation changed, had equipment changes, maintenance issues, or have been encroached upon by micro site
biases and / or
UHI using the raw data for all stations on a national scale or even a global scale gives you a result that is no longer representative of the actual measurements, there is simply too much polluted data.
If you drop the stations with less anomaly, and keep the ones with more warming as gauged by their anomaly,
UHI or not, and use their anomaly, now transposed to the grid stations dropped, you may have problems and a
biased warming.
How do we identify stations
biased by
UHI so we can prove they haven't effected that global record?
Science would conduct experiments and measure the
biases (like
UHI and station siting) and subtract the measured
biases out of the data.
And, when you consider the warming
bias in the surface temperatures (the
UHI effect), it smells like the Left's dogma really cut the cheese.
I have always been amused at the thought that the 1960 deviationist tree rings might well have been right and that the grafted on instrumental record was simply a product of confirmation
bias in the temp adjustments and, of course, Jones getting the
UHI completely wrong (and then having his raw Chinese data «lost».
Oh Zeke, your attempts to justify your «adjustments» but completely ignoring the most obvious
bias,
UHI effect, tells me you are being rather disingenuous with your protestations that everything is OK with the data.
So, as I see it, the key issues are
UHI, the micro sites and the non exisiting stations creating a warming
bias by being included in the US record and possibly globally.
Root cause: the systemic
bias in the land temperature record due the
UHI effect, erroneous adjustments to the data and simply making up data were non exists to come up with an imaginary average global temperature.
UHI is a real problem, and without that correction the global trends would be
biased high.
So even I, a skeptic, would expect a disproportionate number of the all - time high temperatures to be in the last decade, particularly without
UHI correction and with the
bias discussed above.
We really need to quantify
UHI plus station loss plus siting probs plus sensor
biases.
REPLY: Easier said than done - the problem is that only a handful have been identified in the USA that are free from
UHI and siting
biases, and we haven't even begun to look at the entire world.