The change in
UHI over time is what is critical to sorting it's effect on measurement of climate change.
Of course Parker detected only 0.06 degrees delta because he was not measuring UHI versus no UHI — he was measuring variations in
UHI over time.
Their position is that Parker claims NO INCREASE in
UHI over the last 50 years.
I'm curious to know why you think that your 6 paragraphs of irrelevant information are more useful than a simple calculation (which you didn't do) showing the effect of
UHI over time.
Not exact matches
The evidence points to a warming of about 0.6 - 0.8 °C
over the past century and a neglible effect on this from the
UHI.
Assume it is somehow shown that the
UHI is.2 C of.6 C and it all occurred in the decade of 1996 to 2006 indicating that only the most modest of the models was close to coming correct and that all those models so rigorously derived from other sources had errors of 33 % for a decade and a cumalitve error of 2c
over a century and humans needed to be concerned with.4 C TOTAL change.
There are quite a few reasons to believe that the surface temperature record — which shows a warming of approximately 0.6 ° -0.8 °C
over the last century (depending on precisely how the warming trend is defined)-- is essentially uncontaminated by the effects of urban growth and the Urban Heat Island (
UHI) effect.
Likewise, investigators have also looked at sites across rural and urban China, which has experienced rapid growth in urbanisation
over the past 30 years and is therefore very likely to show
UHI.
It has been suggested that
UHI has significantly influenced temperature records
over the 20th century with rapid growth of urban environments.
The Urban Heat Island Effect (
UHI) is a phenomenon whereby the concentration of structures and waste heat from human activity (most notably air conditioners and internal combustion engines) results in a slightly warmer envelope of air
over urbanised areas when compared to surrounding rural areas.
Measuring the difference in temperature just after sundown between urban and rural areas has been between 5 and 7 degrees F.
UHI is pronounced here and there has been a tremendous amount of urban development in the last 15 years all
over the state.
Steve Mosher, why should anyone in the industry employ Hockey Team member or likewise for their arctic endeavours, with the esoteric Hockey Stick shattered, sensitivity estimations currently falling apart, temperatures refusing to rise for
over a decade and Watts / Evans about to prove that
UHI in the US caused exaggerated trends by a factor of 2 or 3?
Nevertheless, to the extent that such an effect exists for Tmax, most cities that have grown
over the last few years will be above their averages just from the increasing
UHI component.
The only way the
UHI effect can turn a non-warming trend into a warming trend is if this effect becomes more and more pronounced
over time.
The naked assumption that HADCRUT3 represents an unbiased estimate of GST, as if that index was free of
UHI effects on land and had fully adequate spatio - temporal coverage
over the oceans from1850 to present.
Is the
UHI effect at the station growing, changing
over time?
Yang et al. published an extensive study on the impact of
UHI on China's warming and discovered that
over 40 % of the increase could be explained by the
UHI effect in some urban areas.
So the magnitude of this
UHI effect is unlikely to change greatly
over time unless the airport is growing rapidly.
If you weren't intending to muddy the water
over whether Parker is about the existence of
UHI, then why did you spend so much time in this article discussing possible experiments, and data sets, and existing papers, and averages, that address whether there is a
UHI, and that do NOT address Parker's point about the impact of
UHI on trends
over time?
RE: # 421 — I would imagine that most of the areas of the NH that are more populated than the Gobi or some parts of the Actic, essentially have a continuous series of interlinked
UHI affected volumes
over them.
Essentially it is saying that comparing trends of calm and windy nights suggests that the increase in the
UHI effect is not significant
over 50 years.
Remember that Parker has published trends for 290 stations
over 50 years from which he concludes, and I assume Neal King agrees, means we have no
UHI effect «on average»
over tose stations and time period.
-- I think the point for the global average is that you can not attribute the increase in GAT
over the last 50 years to
UHI: That would show up, and it doesn't.
One can then deduce that the
UHI effect has had a 0.1 C / decade trend at that location
over a century.
After continuing to be bit puzzled about Parker's justification for using the calm / windy versus Tmin relationship trends as a measure of
UHI changes
over time, I went back and reviewed Steve M's comments (see below at bottom of post) introducing the «Parker 2006: An Urban Myth?»
Where (quote the text) does parker ask whether the change in TMEAN
over time in areas with
UHI is different than areas without
UHI?
On the average,
over the long haul, the prevailing winds distort the
UHI «dome» of NYC into an elongated plume which actually results in
UHI contaimination in Western Long Island.
IF a site were Urban (
UHI impaired) and If
UHI is increasing
over time, Then we should see the signal in a calm / windy comparison.
Parker's null effect was in searching for a trend in
UHI: an increase
over time, globally, to see if that could be used as an alternative explanation for the increase in global average temperature.
Parker asks whether the change in average temperature
over time in areas with
UHI is different than in areas outside the
UHI.
How one can read even that short abstract and miss that this paper accepts the existence of
UHI, and that it is about the impact of
UHI on the magnitude of temperature TRENDS
over time, is utterly beyond me.
Jin et al. (2004) show that zonal mean
UHI has 1 - 3 degree warming
over the Northern Hemisphere latitudes, implying that the collective
UHI may be a significant contributing factor in the overall global warming signal
What he did not find (except in 13 out of 290 cases) was any sign that the
UHI was increasing
over a 50 - year period.
If there is no trend
over time in the windiness / temperature correlation, it won't make any difference to the relationship of the
UHI * trend to the calm - windy signal trend.
If there is a
UHI effect in the spatial domain (and no one disputes this), then it had to grow
over time.
As Steve McIntyre pointed out, it must be that r (TREND (
UHI * - a)-RRB- > t (TREND (
UHI * - s)-RRB-, so that there is is some warming
over time from the suburban increase in
UHI; and c) There can still be the observed
UHI, provided (1 - rk)
UHI * - a > t (1 - k)
UHI * - s
Next, use a one - off measurement of population, not the change
over time, as your
UHI proxy.
The zero temperature trend differences averaged
over the globe for the 50 years, that have been purported to be those must influenced by any potential anthropogenic influences, becomes another simplifying result that can be used to claim that the «average»
UHI effect
over those critical years was zero.
It isn't a relevant question here — because Parker isn't measuring the existence of
UHI — he accepts it — he is measuring whether it has an impact on temp trends
over time.
He is addressing whether
UHI affects trends in averages
over time.
CALM STAGNANT AIR
over the city:
UHI effect.
The question at which Parker's study was addressed was the question: «Could the global warming apparent in the record of land - based temperatures be due to an increase
over time in the local
UHI effects?»
Lucy Skywalker: In addition, many of the classic longest records that currently have a questionmark hanging
over them, of recent improperly adjusted
UHI, could be re-adjusted by the methods used here.
The adjustment for the
UHI effect I see changing
over time with urbanization.
Key is to see whether or not the natural influences,
UHI effects and changes / «modifications» in temp records are really so clear identificable / recognized that a tiny signal (like 2/3 of a degree
over a century) can be identified clearly as caused by humans.
They use different computational methods to e.g. average or smooth the data
over spatiotemporal gaps, and they «adjust» the data differently for poorly known or even unmeasurable things such as
UHI.
In my opinion, Parker glosses
over many conditions that can affect
UHI.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data» in those trends (what the earth's temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (
UHI increases in the temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice land records, extrapolated land records
over hundreds of km, surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias changes in the information.)
Also if a mere 30 — 50 stations globally are sufficient to accurately monitor global temps — what would we find from 50 continuous, site unchanged,
UHI unaffected and entirely rural stations plotted
over the last 100 or 150 years?
Jones» failure to allow for developing
UHI has occasioned much skeptical criticism
over the years.