Sentences with phrase «ukip seat changes»

I do not have a statistical forecasting model for UKIP seat changes, but drastic losses seem very likely given they are down from 15 points in 2014 to just 3.5 points in the average of recent polls.

Not exact matches

Seat changes: Labour gain one seat / Ukip gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one Seat changes: Labour gain one seat / Ukip gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Ukip gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seatseat

Seat changes: Ukip gain one seat / Labour gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one Seat changes: Ukip gain one seat / Labour gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Labour gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one seatseat

Currently, Ukip is likely to win another four seats; but this figure could well change, depending on whether local voters in their key target seats can be persuaded that Ukip has a real chance of victory locally.

UKIP's capacity to change constituency - level outcomes by grabbing 15 - 25 % of the votes in key seats will matter just as much as its potential to win further seats outright.

So it is an interesting working example of a constituency whose dynamics fundamentally change with Ukip's presence, and where a relatively safe seat may become a three - horse race.

Seats that have had a by - election are changed by it, so Eastleigh is probably representative of nothing but itself, but for the record Ashcroft found voting intentions there of CON 27 %, LAB 10 %, LDEM 39 %, UKIP 22 %.

Neither regressions models capturing the patterns above nor classic uniform change models predict UKIP to win any seats.

Local campaigns can change things but at the moment, the BES data suggest UKIP would struggle to get more than a dozen seats.

The two main parties are in the low 30s in the polls now in large part because of UKIP, but uniform change still seems to provide a reasonable guide as to how those overall vote shares translate into seats among key Con - Lab and Lab - Con marginals in England and Wales.

The first UKIP MP elected to Westminster claimed change was coming as he arrived at the House Of Commons to take up his seat.

No change in Broxbourne, as the Tories win nine seats, Labour 1, Ukip 1.

Douglas Carswell, who defected from the Tories to Ukip, is the overwhelming favourite to retain his seat, where he stood down when he changed parties.

I don't expect major changes in national vote share in 2020 necessarily but we could see UKIP still around 10 - 15 %, losing votes to the Tories in marginal seats but profiting from a post referendum backlash at the Tories expense in Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire etc and old labour areas like Sunderland, county Durham, Rotherham, Oldham etc which the Tories have abandoned.