I Predict it could be
a UKIP seat gain because many Tory supporters are defecting to UKIP and towns such as Trowbridge are being hit hard by immagration.
First,
UKIP seat gains were very modest because of the even distribution of the vote and effects of the First Past The Post electoral system.
Not exact matches
«Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them, splitting the Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives or
UKIP, or whoever, to
gain more
seats from them.
Naturally, in terms of
seats gained UKIP's performance can hardly be interpreted as a striking victory.
Seat changes: Labour gain one seat / Ukip gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
Seat changes: Labour
gain one
seat / Ukip gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat /
Ukip gain one
seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat / Conservatives lose one
seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seatseat
Noteworthy winner: Steven Woolfe,
Ukip's man in the City, snuck in with the final
seat to get a second
gain for Nigel Farage's party.
Seat changes: Ukip gain one seat / Labour gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
Seat changes:
Ukip gain one
seat / Labour gain one seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat / Labour
gain one
seat / Conservatives lose one seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat / Conservatives lose one
seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seat / Liberal Democrats lose one
seatseat
Nigel Farage failed to
gain the
seat he stood for, but seems set to continue as
UKIP leader.
The Tories secured the votes of most former
Ukip supporters, which prevented the party from losing even more
seats, and helped it secure a handful of
gains well away from the capital.
Even defeated parties must find consolation somewhere, and Labour's will include hanging on to a knife - edge majority in Bradford, thanks to independent candidates,
UKIP and Respect all losing
seats, and
gaining majorities in unitary Stockton - on - Tees, and, after a suspended recount and overnight rest, Cheshire West & Chester.
Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them, splitting the Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives (or
UKIP, or whoever) to
gain more
seats from them.
I believe that the BNP will
gain a definate one but possibly two
seats from labour and the
Ukip will be represented by Farage - who will support the tories!!
They were partly compensated for by
gains of 6
seats from Labour, 1 from the Liberal Democrats, 1 from
UKIP in England.
Of the three second - placed parties who won nine
seats,
UKIP gained the largest share of the county - wide vote, more than 10 % ahead of Labour.
Other analysis suggests that
UKIP would need to do very well — certainly much better than the results here suggest they will — in order to
gain even a handful of
seats in the next parliament.
Ukip gained their second
seat on the Humberston and New Waltham council when candidate William Harness triumphed in the by - election held to replace Conservative councillor John Colebrook following his death in December.
The British Election Study found that Labour
gained more Leave voters from other parties than it lost to the Tories, including 18 percent of 2015
Ukip voters - a proportion that must have been lower in safe Tory
seats, but correspondingly higher in the safe Labour heartlands where scooping up
Ukip voters was the Tories» entire strategy for success.
The last round of comparable elections were held in 2013 when Labour picked up 291
seats,
UKIP gained 139 and Tories lost 335 and the Lib Dems shed 124
seats.
Ukip did
gain at least 20 English council
seats.
Given the fact that
UKIP won the 2014 European elections —
gaining seats in England, Wales and Scotland — and has now elected a member of parliament for the first time, something big is really happening here.
Of the smaller parties, the SNP received a greater share of
seats than votes, whereas
UKIP and the Liberal Democrats
gained very little representation compared to the share of the vote they received.
The more
seats a party or grouping has, the more chance it has of forming a government - with 198
seats out of 646 the Conservative Party could only form a government if significant numbers of other MP's decided to back them, as happened in 1924 when there was a situation that the Conservatives didn't want to form a coalition with either other main party and equally the Liberals didn't want a coalition with Labour and the Liberals and Conservatives saw it as an opportunity to allow Labour into government but in a situation in which legislation was still reliant on Liberal and Conservative votes and they could be brought down at the most suitable time, supposing the notional
gains were accurate and in the improbable event of the next election going exactly the same way in terms of votes then 214 out of 650 is 32.93 % of
seats compared to at 198 out of 646
seats - 30.65 % of
seats and the Conservative Party would then be 14
seats closer towards a total neccessary to form a government allowing for the greater number of
seats, on the one hand the Conservatives need Labour to fail but equally they need to succeed themselves given that the Liberal Democrats appear likely to oppose anyone forming a government who does not embark on a serious programme to introduce PR, in addition PC & SNP would expect moves towards Independence for Scotland and Wales, the SDLP will be likely to back Labour and equally
UKIP would want a committment to withdraw from Europe and anyway will be likely to be in small numbers if any, pretty much that leaves cutting a deal with the DUP which would only add the backing of an extra 10 - 13 MP's.
UKIP lost all its
seats on the council, whilst the Greens
gained a second councillor.
[2] The Conservatives
gained most votes in four of the six parliamentary
seats, the Liberal Democrats coming first in Cheltenham and
UKIP in the Forest of Dean.
UKIP gained more than 150
seats in council polls across England but it had a weak performance in London.
In Wales, Labour remains as the largest party, with 29 out of 60
seats, but was denied a majority as Plaid Cymru and
UKIP both made notable
gains.
Mr Farage said he could not predict where
UKIP might
gain seats, or in which parts of the country, but added «we will travel optimistically».
The United Kingdom Independence Party (
UKIP) were only able to hold one of their two
seats and
gain no new ones, despite increasing their vote share to 12.9 % (which was third in terms of votes.)
Meanwhile, an opinion poll commissioned by former Tory deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft in the 40 most marginal Tory - held
seats suggests that Labour remains on course for a comfortable overall majority at the next election — not because the party itself is
gaining ground, but because
Ukip has tripled its share of the vote, mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.
Plaid Cymru were predicted to return four MPs, with the Green Party and
Ukip gaining two
seats in total, according to the poll conducted by NOP / MORI for the BBC, ITV and Sky.
UKIP gained four
seats, and Labour
gained one
seat.
[4]
UKIP made strong
gains, winning 7
seats (their first ever
seats on the council), and Labour also
gained seats (its
gain of three
seats being wholly at the expense of Conservatives).
UKIP will not be clobbered as much as some feel (or even hope) but will lose 4
seats, the SNP will
gain a
seat from Labour and the BNP will
gain from both Labour and the Tories.
It was contested by the former television presenter Robert Kilroy - Silk, with the result that
UKIP were almost able to top the poll and
gained seats from Labour and the Conservatives.
The key question is whether a newly resurgent
UKIP can
gain ground in a safe Labour
seat, as James Landale reports.
UKIP and the Greens saw their best - ever results in terms of vote share (7 % for the Greens and 5 % for
UKIP), but whilst
UKIP gained 12
seats, the Greens
gained just 2.
There was of course the Green surge, which amounted to no
gain in
seats, a loss of working - class votes to
UKIP, and the SNP's referendum - inspired surge in Scotland — but as yet no Party can outflank Labour's Left across the UK.
UKIP and the Green Party
gained three
seats and one
seat respectively from the Conservatives to win their first representation on the council at this election.
There was better news for Labour in the nearby ward of Dinnington, however, with the party
gaining the
seat from
Ukip.
Ukip gained 11
seats in Basildon to ensure it went from Tory to no overall control, and
gains in Castle Point and Southend resulted in the loss of Conservative majority control in those authorities.
Ukip has
gained four
seats in Southend - on - Sea — two from the Conservatives and two from the Lib Dems.
UKIP's
gain of over 80
seats at the time of writing is bound to make any liberal wince.
Five
Ukip gains left Tories one
seat short of overall control.
And the
Ukip surge has also hit Labour, which has been picking up
seats, but perhaps fewer than expected, and which has lost control of Thurrock following
Ukip gains there.
• Nigel Farage, the
Ukip leader, has said that his party will try to use its success in the local elections as a springboard for
gaining seats at Westminster next year.
In the north,
Ukip showed it could pose a threat to Labour in its strongholds, taking 10 of the 21 council
seats up for election in Rotherham, including nine
gains, and polling an average of 47 % where its candidates stood.
We have already found
Ukip gaining over 80
seats.
Ukip gained five
seats in Thurrock, Essex, meaning that Labour lost control of the council.
•
Ukip have
gained 11
seats in Basildon, Essex, meaning the Conservatives lost control of the council.
Ukip have
gained almost 100
seats so far - already exceeding one prediction made by election experts - and they seem to have
gained almost a quarter of the projected national share of the vote.