We assume therefore that
UKIP gets a 28.5 per cent vote share, Labour 25.5, Conservatives 21.5, Liberal Democrats 9 and Greens 7.
Look at poll detail and it is clear that
UKIP gets 1.65 times as many votes from 2010 Tory voters as it does from Labour ones.
You do not comment on the likely variable:
UKIP gets votes from those who do not normally vote, as well as from two main parties.
In Heywood and Middleton,
UKIP got 32.2 % compared with 2.6 % in 2010.
To recap on what first - past - the - post delivered, UKIP and the Greens got one MP, but
UKIP got 12.6 % of the vote whereas the Greens got 3.8 %.
In a multi-party system, being a polarising figure is not always a terrible thing so I would not be surprised to see
Ukip get at least a temporary bump from tonight's debate.
At the 2009 European elections, with Mr Farage becoming a regular fixture on TV discussion programmes,
UKIP got more votes than Labour and the Lib Dems, and increased its number of MEPs to 13.
UKIP got just under 13 % in this constituency.
At the last election there were 21 seats where the number of votes that
UKIP got was larger than the number of extra votes the Conservatives needed to win.
ComRes poll of marginals shows Con -6 Ukip +12 so does this equate to «vote
Ukip get EM», or is this too simple?
Not exact matches
«One of
Ukip's policies is that if enough people want to change the law, on a particular moral issue, whether that's a left wing issue, whether that's a right wing issue, that they should be able to if they
get enough signatures on a petition.»
«God has had no other way to
get Cameron's attention'than sending severe floods across the nation, according to one former
UKIP councillor.
I can't imagine
UKIP, the BNP, the Christian Party or any of the others
getting second - preferences from across the political spectrum as the Greens would.
She says: «I think we've
got to take
Ukip on.
«If you
get Ukip in county hall, we can make a fuss about it.»
This
gets to the heart of the immigration policy that
Ukip wants.»
You've
got to explain to them that actually some of the things that
Ukip are saying are proxy for concerns that we can address.»
For example, BNP or
UKIP voters would
get to vote more than once because their second choice would be most likely to be taken into account first.
Another
Ukip MEP has
got into a fight.
UKIP is the natural terminus for all I have fought for.CH I didn't want to
get back into politics.
Biggest loser: Suzanne Evans,
Ukip's communities spokesperson,
got into trouble after appearing to agree with a radio presenter's suggestion that the problem for
Ukip in London was their difficulty appealing to the «educated, cultural and young».
Noteworthy winner: Steven Woolfe,
Ukip's man in the City, snuck in with the final seat to
get a second gain for Nigel Farage's party.
«
Ukip is
getting itself now into a position in some of the marginals where it is in a serious position to win a seat in parliament and not just to split the vote.»
Firstly that they see this as an opportunity to increase their majority at the expense of Labour and
UKIP both of which are now in rather awkward positions and secondly that the current leadership has inherited a bit of an awkward position themselves in that they are committed to a process which is both diplomatically and politically potentially very difficult and dangerous and if it all goes horribly wrong they are really out on a limb so if they
get a fresh mandate they can at least blame the voters.
UKIP do not appear because they are only expected to
get four seats and I have assumed that a deal involving both
UKIP and LD would be too difficult.
Amongst them,
UKIP failed to
get more than one seat and is now in the midst of an internal turmoil.
I could have been persuaded by Nigel Farage, even though I'm not
UKIP, he has a way of
getting to the heart of the problem quickly.
The
UKIP conference didn't even
get a mention although there was real news in the election of a new leader.
The latest sign of the rise of
Ukip — which campaigns for the UK to leave the EU — follows an unexpected attempt by the European commission to
get the UK to pay # 1.7 bn more into European coffers following a budgetary readjustment, based on the gross national incomes of member countries.
Ukip's leader in Scotland David Coburn told the National the surge in support for his party was part of trend: «I
got in as the MEP.
Continue reading Why didn't
UKIP win so many seats given they
got so many votes?
But right now the
UKIP leader is doing everything possible to avoid the press covering his battle to
get elected to parliament for South Thanet.
Ed Miliband could copy
UKIP's lines word - for - word and the best he would
get is «Labour admit they now regret destroying British culture with their scrounger Muslim flood (who vote Labour, by the way)».
Since my original specification of the model I've adjusted it slightly in order to try and
get a prediction of the
UKIP vote.
The first two leadership contests of the summer have set a high bar — but the
Ukip contest, which
gets underway tomorrow, could still prove to be the most entertaining of them all.
UKIP is doing even better than expected in the locals, and the story I've spent four hours crafting
gets spiked.
Speaking prior to the unanimous motion passed, Mr Draper said: ««
UKIP and its leader Nigel Farage are feeding on voter apathy and are
getting a massive platform in the media.»
And while
Ukip have arguably joined the political big league, the Greens appear to be
getting squeezed.
«Star Trek the Original series used to have a phrase, «beam me up Scotty»,
Ukip is a party that
gets beamed into Scotland courtesy of the BBC.»
Hamilton was among the winners for
Ukip as the party celebrated
getting its first ever seats in the assembly last week.
Provided the Conservatives can indeed win the biggest share of seats (and they'll probably lose a few — but only a few — to
UKIP, so will
get a bit less than they might otherwise), then they'll
get the first opportunity to put together a coalition, or at least a working minority government.
These differences, the dropout effects,
get larger the stronger the
UKIP starting point.
If you
get one Labour or Liberal voter to vote Conservative at the general election but lose three or four others to
Ukip, you are not going to win the general election.»
This does not necessarily mean that when
UKIP drop out all the other parties
get some of their voters.
But there are other problems about
getting down in the gutter with
Ukip to tussle for anti-immigrant votes.
In seat after seat that Labour held you
get a Lib Dem collapse, a holdup of the Tory vote, and a 4 - 5,000 surge for
Ukip.
The biggest risk for the model is not so much that
UKIP might
get a very large share of the vote in 2015: they are already forecast to
get 12 %.
With the party already at a financial disadvantage compared to Labour and the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats are likely to face real difficulties in
getting their message across to voters — especially when attention is paid to the two main parties and emerging forces such as
UKIP and the Greens.
«I sometimes really think that time is running out for us to
get our act together and unless we can
get consent from those political parties to work together and actually begin to make a difference then I'm afraid to say the next 10 to 20 years could be dominated not just by the Conservative party, but I feel we could see a breakthrough under the first - past - the - post system of a post-Brexit
Ukip party in parts of this country.
Its policies need to be opposed not supplemented by a Labour «
get tough» agenda — the framework of the recent leaflet attacking
UKIP.