Whether Ukipcommands nationwide support in the high teens, as in 2014, or the low 20s, as in 2013 — perhaps more when the European elections are counted on Sunday — the upshot is the same: English local government has four big parties now.
The fear among the Tory highcommand is that a second convincing by - election victory for Ukip could encourage other waverers in the ranks to jump ship and join them.