Again, look more carefully into
the Vostok ice core data http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=221 - contrary to your presentation of stable concentrations over thousands of years, there was no single period in time when concentrations and temperatures were steady stable, they were always changing, and therefore were in dynamics, in a state far from equillibrium.
I have been looking at
the Vostok Ice Core data.
(Notice how
the Vostok ice core data shows a much slower slide toward cooling than warming)
I have a feeling
the Vostok Ice Core data never broke the 300 PPM barrier because there was not a real CO2 forcing apart from the positive feedback from seawater CO2 ougassing.
This paper analyzes the 420,00 o year Antarctic
Vostok ice core data comparing the CO2, CH4, sea level, and surface albedo changes do derive his empirical 3 °C per 4 W / m2 climate sensitivity from the ice core data.
Looking at
the Vostok Ice core data I would think it is much more likely that the Earths temperature is more of a control valve for atmospheric Co2 content.
As far as the correlation between GHGs and temperature goes, recent history already passes his r2 > 0.5 test with flying colours - the Mauna Loa CO2 data vs GISTEMP from 1961 - 2004 gets r2 = 0.76, and I'm sure that
the Vostok ice core data must be in the same ballpark over ~ 400,000 years or more (a quick google finds multiple references to the strong correlation but no hard numbers and I can't be bothered doing it myself).
The graph built from
the Vostok ice core data shows us the relationship between CO2 in the atmosphere and global temperature.
We understand from
Vostok ice core data that there is a ~ 600 year lag in CO2 after temperature.
This study concluded the sample resolution of
the Vostok ice core data can detect centennial scale cycles.
al conducted an extensive study on
the Vostok ice core data examining centennial events.
I thought that, according to
the Vostok ice core data, the Antarctic has been warming up for the last 12k - yr.
To that issue, I have visited
the Vostok Ice Cores data.
Not exact matches
For example, if you examine the
ice core data, say from
Vostok station http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/
data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/
vostok/ you may find many episodes with «bizzare» behavior.
Vostok Data The
Vostok ice core sample was obtained by drilling down into the
ice above Lake
Vostok to a depth of 3623m.
Here we use
ice -
core data from the Antarctic
Vostok core to reconstruct a complete atmospheric carbon dioxide record for MIS 11.
280 ppmv is the traditional value, the
Vostok ice cores registered 284.7 in 342 BC (Petit et al, Nature v. 399 (6735) pp 429 - 436, 1999), and I used 280 when fitting the CDIAC
data directly to the Keeling curve here on the assumption that 44 % of emissions remained in the atmosphere.
To be consistent you should object to the
Vostok ice -
core data on the ground that it smooths out anything faster than a couple of centuries.
* An exponential fit hindcasts absurdly, namely to zero when the
ice core data from
Vostok etc. would suggest 280 - 290 as a more reasonable hindcasting target.
According to the NOAA (here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/
data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/
vostok/co2nat.txt) the
Vostok ice -
core data covers a time - frame of about 420,000 years and during this time - frame we only have 283 measurement - samples.
If the
Vostok ice cores are considered in terms of the traumatic microfracturing that occurs during extraction, the
Vostok data shows much more familiar values.
Precision of
Ice Core Measurements: Some of the best data we have of historic temperatures are the studies of isotopes of gases and various components of the atmosphere in ice cores, such as Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenla
Ice Core Measurements: Some of the best
data we have of historic temperatures are the studies of isotopes of gases and various components of the atmosphere in
ice cores, such as Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenla
ice cores, such as
Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenland.
There are the famous
data sets: the
Vostok ice core drilled in the 1970s that looks back about 400,000 years, the Keeling curve started in 1958,
data from satellites that watch sea
ice retreat starting around 1979.
http://webpages.charter.net/wtelle/Warming/
Vostok.jpg These are
data from the
Vostok ice core, units not implied on the y - axis because the scales have been normalized to track changes.
For instance the
Vostok ice -
core data over 415,000 years has an average measurement - spacing of 756 years, meaning that the likelihood of measuring an increase in atmospheric CO2 as the one measured at Mauna Loa over the last 50 years, if one existed in the
Vostok ice -
core samples, amounts to 6.6 % (i.e. 50/756).
On the basis of atmospheric CO2
data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome
ice core and temperature
data obtained from the
Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000 - 20,000 years BP (Before Present).
The
Vostok ice core has only 6
data points for the same range.
These do not address the issue of the distrust in
ice core data resulting from the mismatch between the
Vostok records and the Keeling Curve.
Is the CO2 analysis
data from various
ice cores such as
Vostok using the sublimation technique available?
al. present annual values, much of the
Vostok ice cores yielded temperature
data every 200 years.