Here is an overlay of
the Vostok ice core temperature and the associated CO2 levels.
Similarly, I've got
the Vostok ice core temperature record heading your way soon.
Not exact matches
The end of an
ice age is associated with about 10 - 20 F ° of
temperature rise, according to interpretations of the
Vostok ice cores.
Further, in more recent times, there is a very close CO2 -
temperature relationship in the
Vostok (and other)
ice cores.
He brings up quite a bit of the «CO2 lags
temperature in the
Vostok ice core» stuff which has been thorouhgly refuted (at least in the context that this is contradictory to AGW).
Considering the
vostok Ice core the equilibruim CO2 level is a fairly linear function of
temperature (9.8 ppm / K) I agree that the pre-industrial equilibrium of 280 ppm should now be 287 ppm, but that increase is still small compared to the anthropogenic signal of 93 ppm.
Indeed it was Law Dome, not the Taylor Dome... I had written that from memory, but as my memory is not anymore what it was 40 years ago... What I meant was a graph on the Internet, showing the Law Dome
ice core CO2 variations, lagging the
temperature variations with some 50 years (with ~ 10 ppmv / K, similar to the factor found over the
Vostok ice core trends).
Indeed the
ice cores show a remarkable (near) linear response of CO2 to
temperature changes, be it overall ~ 8 ppmv / K for the 420,000 years
Vostok ice core, where K more or less reflects the SH ocean
temperature.
The lag between movements in
temperature and movements in CO2 levels may even between 800 — 1000 years if
Vostok ice core studies are correct.
The
Vostok ice core for the Eemian shows a 100ppm rise in CO2 (starting at 190ppm) after
temperature started to rise (not the other way around).
The
Vostok core clearly indicates that when the
temperature reaches 2 °C a mechanism kicks in which sets the
temperature falling again and initiates an
ice - age.
We understand from
Vostok ice core data that there is a ~ 600 year lag in CO2 after
temperature.
The graph built from the
Vostok ice core data shows us the relationship between CO2 in the atmosphere and global
temperature.
Carbon dioxide measurements on Dome C
ice, focusing on the interval 390 to 650 kyr before present, bp (2,700 — 3,060 m) 4, confirmed the strong coupling between CO2 and Antarctic
temperature found1 in the
Vostok ice core for the past 420 kyr.
The dD record is directly related to the
temperature of most of the SH oceans, where the pecipitation of the
Vostok ice core originated.
Precision of
Ice Core Measurements: Some of the best data we have of historic temperatures are the studies of isotopes of gases and various components of the atmosphere in ice cores, such as Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenla
Ice Core Measurements: Some of the best data we have of historic
temperatures are the studies of isotopes of gases and various components of the atmosphere in
ice cores, such as Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenla
ice cores, such as
Vostok in Antarctica, and GRIP in Greenland.
The
Vostok ice core record suggests CO2 levels have not been this high in the last 800,000 years, but if Salby is right, and
temperature controls CO2, then CO2 levels ought to have been higher say, 130,000 years ago when the world was 2 — 4 degrees warmer than it is now.
Further, there is firm evidence that migration of CO2 isn't important in the
Vostok and Dome C
ice cores over the past 800,000 years: each glacial / interglacial period shows the same ratio between
temperature and CO2 changes: about 8 ppmv/degr.C.
As far as the correlation between GHGs and
temperature goes, recent history already passes his r2 > 0.5 test with flying colours - the Mauna Loa CO2 data vs GISTEMP from 1961 - 2004 gets r2 = 0.76, and I'm sure that the
Vostok ice core data must be in the same ballpark over ~ 400,000 years or more (a quick google finds multiple references to the strong correlation but no hard numbers and I can't be bothered doing it myself).
Looking at the
Vostok Ice core data I would think it is much more likely that the Earths
temperature is more of a control valve for atmospheric Co2 content.
Heres a compiled
temperature graph: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/
vostok/graphics/tempplot5.gif Based on the
Vostok Ice Core.
There is the research that reports that
Vostok ice cores, going back 800,000 years, clearly shows that
temperature rises before a parallel rise of CO2 800-1200 years later.
Records of CO2 (green) and
temperature (blue) over the past 350,000 years from the
Vostok ice core, after [Petit et al., 1999].
But let's do a real rough check, based on the HadCRUT surface
temperature record, the Mauna Loa measurement of atmospheric CO2 (after 1958) and the IPCC estimated CO2 level based on the
Vostok ice cores (prior to 1958):
Nancy, there are higher resolution proxies, such as the
Vostok Ice Core, which do in fact show lots of
temperature spikes.
HS12 reviews a number of other
temperature estimates, including from the
Vostok Antarctic
ice core, and arrives at its LGM cooling estimate.
On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome
ice core and
temperature data obtained from the
Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000 - 20,000 years BP (Before Present).
Then, in another study of the 420,000 - year
Vostok ice -
core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air
temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years. . .»
The
Vostok ice core is everywhere when it comes to CO2 and
temperature.
Figure 1 shows the
Vostok ice core CO2 and
temperature variations.
A few additions: — While coastal
ice cores reflect the
temperatures of the nearby Southern Ocean (via dD and d18O proxies), the deep inland, high altitude,
ice cores of
Vostok and Epica Dome C reflect the ocean
temperatures for near the whole SH.
Variations over 420,000 years of CO2, methane (CH4), and
temperature, from the
Vostok ice core after it reached bedrock (1999): four complete glacial cycles.
He felt the
Vostok ice core records of CO2 and
temperature as presented in the movie were «a pretty good match,» and asked Chevron's counsel to comment on that.
Anyway, if the problem was huge, then the oldest
ice cores should show a lower CO2 /
temperature ratio, which is not the case for either
Vostok (420 kyr) or Dome C (800 kyr).
Ice cores have been extracted at a place named
Vostok which reveal
temperatures and CO2 levels from the past.
According to Ruddiman (not a direct link to the literature), it was actually the release of methane from rice paddies and other forms of agriculture starting about 5,000 years ago that prevented the same sort of fairly rapid decay in
temperature seen in the
Vostok ice core record of previous interglacials.
The
Vostok ice core had stopped me in my tracks because it seemed to suggest definitive evidence of CO2 attribution (though we now know the effect comes before the cause), but it was the hockey stick graph that caused me to do a U-turn, because it implied so plainly that today's
temperature was unprecendented in magnitude and rate of change.
al. present annual values, much of the
Vostok ice cores yielded
temperature data every 200 years.
It is true that the
Vostok ice core has illustrated that there is a delay of between 200 and 800 years between a change in
temperature and the lagging change in CO2.
In particular, you could start with my articles on how we know that the CO2 rise is anthropogenic and why the GHG /
temperature record in the
Vostok ice cores does not imply that CO2 doesn't drive
temperature.
Figure 1: Antarctic (
Vostok)
ice core records of
temperature, CO2 (upper) and CH4 (lower) including time - scale adjustment to account for
ice - gas age difference associated with the time for air bubbles to be sealed (Petit et al. 1999) and corrected for variations of climate in the water vapor source regions (Vimeux et al. 2002) as described in Supporting Text of Hansen and Sato (2004).
Again, look more carefully into the
Vostok ice core data http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=221 - contrary to your presentation of stable concentrations over thousands of years, there was no single period in time when concentrations and
temperatures were steady stable, they were always changing, and therefore were in dynamics, in a state far from equillibrium.
For the
Vostok ice core (8 ppmv / °C) this is in fact compared to the calculated SH ocean
temperatures (via dD and D18O measurements).
New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from
Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction.
The
Vostok ice core proxy record shows that there has been substantial variability in
temperature near the south pole throughout the Holocene.