Goldman Sachs, the New York - based investment bank, is sticking with its call that
crude prices could drop to $ 20 per barrel.
Amid these indicators, traders are taking measures to protect themselves from a potential fall in
crude prices.
Bets on rising
crude prices are close to a near - record high,» PVM Oil Associates strategist Stephen Brennock said.
Soaring U.S. shale production has been a nagging concern for OPEC and its allies, but the group's key players appear to be more fixated on the immediate benefits of high
crude prices.
But the rise in Treasury yields above 3 percent has driven the value of the U.S. dollar to three - month highs, which may pose a threat to a more pronounced rally in
the crude price.
The decreases are largely the result of the oil glut and all - time lows for
crude prices — last year, mining, oil producers, and metal companies lost a combined $ 70 billion on $ 1.3 trillion in revenue.
Those contracts were lifesavers again in 1986, when
crude prices collapsed and Calgary lost its buzz.
This might eventually pressure
crude prices, even though oil and the dollar have moved in tandem for a few weeks.
Looking forward, he said, the company expects
crude prices to remain relatively stable.
The world's largest publicly - traded oil and gas company by market value has ridden out a collapse in
crude prices better than most, its vertically - integrated model allowing downstream businesses to capture the value that upstream operations lose when oil prices are low.
Now, one trader is trying to capitalize on the recent strength with an options strategy that will pay more than $ 1 million, as long as
crude prices don't fall dramatically in the next few months.
Still, the gradual rebound in
crude prices is boosting the company's fortunes, as Schlumberger has started to redeploy its workforce toward more traditional business lines.
They were the first to see that the plunge in
crude prices last year heralded serious trouble — hence the January interest - rate cut.
Oil and gas traders, Bailey says, received alerts about the death of the King of Saudi Arabia more than four hours before
crude prices spiked on the news.
Brent
crude prices were 0.14 percent higher shortly after the European market closed, trading at $ 55.52 a barrel.
Around 4:30 p.m. London time (11:30 a.m. ET), however,
crude prices fluctuated around the flat line, with Brent trading at $ 55.98 and WTI trading at $ 50.45.
The long era of too much oil sloshing around the world and low prices is coming to an end, just as global events are heating up
crude prices.
This is the first significant political premium to show up in
crude prices since OPEC and Russia joined forces in late 2016 to steady a market faced with a serious global glut.
For investors, the potentially high rates of return, compared with commercial loan rates running about 5 percent to 7 percent, have spurred interest despite
crude prices under $ 50 a barrel.
As
crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust.
Brent
crude prices are down over 33 percent over the past 12 months and were sitting around $ 37.17 per barrel by mid-day London trade.
As the oil sector becomes increasingly focused on margins, Parex benefits from the low costs in that country, without the market access problems that impose a discount on
crude prices in Western Canada.
The depressed prices mean lower prices for refiners and less pump pain for North American drivers, but it's hardly good news for Canada's oil industry, which spent billions on oilsands projects after world
crude prices had risen high enough to justify the investment.
A TD study last spring found that a 10 % bump in
crude prices was enough to nudge the country's entire GDP up by more than $ 5 billion.
Oil supply concerns are greater for Europe, where
crude prices have jumped even higher due to the region's larger energy reliance on MENA.
Kotok has seen
crude price estimates over the next five years that range from US$ 220 to US$ 30.
At press time, WTI
crude prices had already surpassed US$ 106 in intraday trading.
Scotiabank's Patricia Mohr agrees that projects like Seaway and Gulf Coast will help chip away at the discount, allowing Western Canadian
crude prices to float up to world levels.
But Wood Mackenzie speculates that investors might not remain so stubborn with U.S.
crude prices at three - year highs above $ 60 and a corporate tax cut windfall on the horizon.
When national budgets of various oil - producing countries are determined by
crude prices, then a lower price forces capital to be repatriated back to the country of origin (and we haven't even mentioned Russia, which is flooding the crude market for budgetary reasons).
The reason for this is that many countries in Asia used the prior period of falling
crude prices to end, or dramatically scale back, their fuel subsidies.
As recently as this spring, Brent
Crude prices had been pushing $ 115 a barrel owing to tensions along the Russian - Ukrainian border.
Morgan Stanley also noted that oil and gas exports account for nearly 16 percent of Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP), and the sector has been hard hit by
crude prices falling below $ 50 a barrel again.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley both upped their forecasts for
crude prices this week, while Goldman Sachs said the risks of prices overshooting its current targets are mounting.
But after the bust comes the boom: Expect soaring
crude prices later this decade as demand from fast - growing Asia collides with greatly diminished supply — a classic bust - boom cycle with which the oil industry was all too familiar 100 years ago but may have forgotten since.
This means that this time consumers in countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia are fully exposed to rising
crude prices, something that hasn't been in the case in previous bull cycles.
Again, how much longer this can continue is uncertain, but one would imagine at some point rising
crude prices will have to be reflected in higher retail prices for diesel and gasoline.
It is widely believed that lower
crude prices are good for equities in the long term, but the short - term effects of the lower prices are complicated.
Third,
crude prices will keep pressure on stocks as SWF selling hits hard in the first or second quarter of 2016.
But the absence of fuel subsidies in most Asian nations is likely to mean the region feels the pain of the jump in
crude prices far faster than was the case previously.
Although much of the recent drop in oil prices has been due to the prospect of higher exports from Iran in the coming months (the International Energy Agency forecasts an extra 300,000 barrels a day by the end of March), the dumping of stored oil is essentially a short - term factor, and its influence on
crude prices should logically pass quite quickly.
CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis reports faltering
crude prices could put high yield energy credit spreads at risk.
One of the potential unintended consequences of a US exit from the Paris accord could be a change in OPEC's current strategy of production cuts to drive
crude prices higher.
Even as the oil producers themselves could struggle with weak
crude prices, both National Oilwell Varco and US Silica are set to win from the growth in production spending in the near term.
The «Futures Now» team discusses the election impact on
crude prices with Scott Nations, NationsShares, and Anthony Grisanti, GRZ Energy.
WTI
crude prices remain choppy, but up 9 percent this week, and up 29 percent since its August low, with CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis.
Even as oil producers could struggle with lower
crude prices, increased production investment is already paying off for US Silica and National Oilwell Varco.
CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis reports the moves in
crude prices as Iraqi forces gain ground in oil - rich territories.
Discussing the move higher, then lower, in
crude prices after tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Anthony Grisanti, GRZ Energy President.
For the first time in months, oil industry officials are hopeful that
crude prices could stick above $ 50 per barrel.