During the Roman
Warm Period ~ 2,000 years ago, sea levels were significantly higher than they are now.
Roman
warm period ~ 1800 BP.
If the previous
warming period ~ 1980 - 1998 had the same rate of acceleration as the post 98 period than all the heat could not have possibly moved from the atmosphere to the ocean.
Not exact matches
Assuming you believe that the Arctic's temperature rise since the mid-1990s has been caused by CO2, how do you explain the
~ 40 years of cooling that preceded the
warming — since CO2 was rapidly rising during both the cooling and
warming periods?
While
periods of increased and decreased
warming exist over the 132 - year
period, the linear rate is still
~ 0.6 C / century, and the most recent monthly GISS values fall right on the linear trend (the linear trend value for the Feb. 2012 temperature anomaly is +0.38 C, while the last two months have been +0.35 and +0.40 C.)
Three
periods of increased
warming;
~ 1850 - 1880 (+0.09 C / decade), 1910 - 1940 (+0.16), and 1970 - 2000 (+0.18), and interspersed with
periods of decreased
warming;
~ 1880 - 1910 -LRB--0.02), 1940 - 1970 -LRB--0.02), and 2000 --LRB--0.02).
While
periods of increased and decreased
warming exist over the 132 - year
period, the linear rate is still
~ 0.6 C / century
-- which by the way is an argument for why the Ruddiman hypothesis for an «expected» ice age is not valid - we should be «expecting» a 40,000 year
warm period similar to what was recently discovered at Vostok for the time
~ 400,000 years ago when we were last at this point in the eccentricity cycle!)
My question was, would not
~ 3.3 K sensitivity indicate that over that short
period (27 years), CO2
warming exceeded natural variation?
The corrections have made
period just before the notorious hiatus colder (
~ 1980 to
~ 2000) and the pause
period warmer.
«Relative to average temperature for 1880 - 1920, which we take as an appropriate estimate of «pre-industrial» temperature, 2016 was +1.26 °C (
~ 2.3 °F)
warmer than in the base
period.»
The drier climate took place during the Medieval
Warm Period (
~ AD 1000 - 1270).
Even the IPCC, committed as it is to selling CAGW no matter what, only feel it can get away with citing the
~ (1975 - 1998)
period of
warming as due to AGW.
The fact that the
warming from
~ 1910 to
~ 1940 was statistically indistinguishable from the
warming from
~ 1970 to
~ 2000, even though CO2 levels increased much more slowly over the first
period, raises even more doubts.
Ernst Beck has complied tens of thousands of analyses of early measurements of atmospheric CO2, and concludes that CO2 levels were much higher during the 1930's
warm period than the generally - accepted levels; CO2 dropped sharply during the cooling from
~ 1946 to
~ 1977; and CO2 increased since 1977 due to the recent
warming, and is now at similar levels to the early 1940's.
On the GISS curve 1986 had the
~ same T as 1961, hindsight is 20/20, from the 87 perspective it was by no means clear that we were in a
period of global
warming.
â $ œRecent temperatures were the
warmest since the fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the
period spanning
~ 4000â $ «1000 varve years ago.â $ http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/cook2008.pdf Data — http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-lake-6195.html
The last «spurt» was from
~ 1910 to
~ 1944, over which
period it
warmed 0.53 C («statistically indistinguishable» from the late 20thC
warming cycle, according to Phil Jones)..
The
warmest 30 - year
period was A.D. 21 - 50, which was 1.05 °C
warmer than the mean temperature for 1951 - 1980 and
~ 0.5 °C
warmer than the region's maximum 20th century warmth, which occured during 1921 - 1950.
2018 and 2017 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs (
~ 200) Maley et al., 2018 Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018 Wündsch et al., 2018 McGowan et al., 2018 «Our reconstructed Tmax [temperature maximum] for these
warmer conditions peaks around 1390 CE at + 0.8 °C above the 1961 — 90 mean, similar to the peak Tmax during the RWP [Roman
Warm Period].
Humanity «rose» from the onset of this current
period of recurring glaciations
~ 3 Million years ago, and from the above site (**): -[«During the last
warm spell, 125,000 years ago, the seas were about 18 feet higher than they are today.
-- The same goes for the earlier multi-decadal
period of slight cooling (
~ 1940 - 1970) and especially for the early 20thC
period of rapid
warming (1910 - 1940), which occurred prior to significant human GHG emissions.
Büntgen et al., 2017 «Spanning the
period 1186 - 2014 CE, the new reconstruction reveals overall
warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after
~ 1850.
Internal variability can only account for
~ 0.3 °C change in average global surface air temperature at most over
periods of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it can not account for more than a small fraction of the global
warming over the past century.
... we showed that the rapidity of the
warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular
warming trend and the
warming phase of a multidecadal (
~ 65 - year
period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 deg C per decade since
~ 1980.
This
period, known as the «last deglaciation,» included episodes of abrupt climate change, such as the Bølling
warming [
~ 14.7 — 14.5 ka], when Northern Hemisphere temperatures increased by 4 — 5 °C in just a few decades [Lea et al., 2003; Buizert et al., 2014], coinciding with a 12 — 22 m sea level rise in less than 340 years [5.3 meters per century](Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a)-RRB-[Deschamps et al., 2012].»
Officially NO «global
warming», at all, for
~ 20 years despite record CO2 emissions over the same
period!
That is to say that we have seen 100ppm CO2 rise for * maybe * one degree
warming in the MWP whereas the
~ 100ppm CO2 response in the glacial
periods was in response to a rise of 10oC.
Indeed, the Minoan, Roman and Medieval
warm periods suggest one cycle has a cycle length of
~ 900 years and most — possibly all — global
warming of the last 300 years is recovery from the Little Ice Age which is part of this cycle.
The first criterion was having authored articles with the key words «global
warming» and / or «global climate change», covering the 1991 — 2011
periods, via the Web of Science (
~ 6000 names).
The present «short
warming period», NOW being just after a Glaciation only 20,000 years into reversion, is infact just one of many that have existed tween the
~ 60 «glaciations» within this present
~ 3 million year long «Primary Trough» climate behavior.
Our interpretations of the δ18O and MS records suggest a
warming event
~ 400 k.y. prior to the Cretaceous - Paleogene (K - Pg) boundary, and a
period of climatic and environmental instability in the earliest Danian.
In addition to the post-industrial era, this
period includes the so - called Medieval Warm Period (~ 900-1300 AD) and Little Ice Age (~ 1300 - 19
period includes the so - called Medieval
Warm Period (~ 900-1300 AD) and Little Ice Age (~ 1300 - 19
Period (
~ 900-1300 AD) and Little Ice Age (
~ 1300 - 1900AD).
Another paper discusses how atmospheric humidity increased during the recent
period of pronounced global
warming (from about the late 1970s to the present), with a humidity decrease during the cooling / temperature stagnation
period of
~ 1940s to the 1970s:
Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni
~ no - like phases) during drying
periods, increased volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling
periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent
warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»
al., 2005, Ljungqvist, 2009 or even Mann et al., 2008, you can see that the last 2 - 3 cycles of this oscillation have had
periods of
~ 1,000 years... Alternating 400 - 500 year
periods of
warming and cooling.
In Wu et al. (2007) we showed that the rapidity of the
warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular
warming trend and the
warming phase of a multidecadal (
~ 65 - year
period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former [secular
warming] to be about 0.08 °C per decade since
~ 1980.
The peak of the Modern
Warming is, at most, 0.1 to 0.2 °C
warmer than the peaks of three comparable, non-carbonated, intervals of the Medieval
Warm Period, consistent with a net climate sensitivity of
~ 0.5 °C.
``... Major climate anomalies recorded by the MBT / CBT - paleothermometer are, for instance, the Little Ice Age (
~ 14th to 19th century) and the Medieval
Warm Period (MWP,
~ 9th to 14th century).»
In Wu et al. (2007) we showed that the rapidity of the
warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular
warming trend and the
warming phase of a multidecadal (
~ 65 - year
period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 C per decade since
~ 1980.
For example, there is another cycle of
~ 900 - year duration that provides the Roman, Medieaval and Present
warm periods seperated by the cool
periods of the Dark Age and Little Ice Age.
Richard S Courtney says: July 30, 2011 at 1:02 am «For example, there is another cycle of
~ 900 - year duration that provides the Roman, Mediaeval and Present
warm periods separated by the cool
periods of the Dark Age and Little Ice Age.»
Medieval
warm period was
~ 800 BP.
In the most recent
period, we observe a millennial separation between warm periods: Modern Global Warming (present), Medieval Warm Period (~ 1100 AD), Roman Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD
period, we observe a millennial separation between
warm periods: Modern Global Warming (present), Medieval Warm Period (~ 1100 AD), Roman Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD;
warm periods: Modern Global
Warming (present), Medieval
Warm Period (~ 1100 AD), Roman Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD;
Warm Period (~ 1100 AD), Roman Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD
Period (
~ 1100 AD), Roman
Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD;
Warm Period (~ 100 AD); and between cold periods: Little Ice Age (~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold Period (~ 650 AD
Period (
~ 100 AD); and between cold
periods: Little Ice Age (
~ 1650 AD; E1), and Dark Ages Cold
Period (~ 650 AD
Period (
~ 650 AD; E2).
The Minoan
warm period took place earlier, before the Bray low, at
~ 3500 - 3200 BP and was allowed by the low power of the 1000 - year cycle, that did not produce low solar activity at the time.
1) The
~ 1000 - year Eddy solar cycle seems to have dominated Holocene climate variability between 11,500 - 4,000 years BP and in the last two millennia, where it defines the Roman, Medieval, and Modern
warm periods.
The
~ 1000 - year Eddy solar cycle seems to have dominated Holocene climate variability between 11,500 - 4,000 years BP, and in the last two millennia, where it defines the Roman, Medieval, and Modern
warm periods.
One thousand years ago during the Medieval
Warm Period, coral thrived in Pacific water masses that were
~ 0.65 °
warmer than in recent decades, then cooled
~ 0.9 °C by the 1700s.
Relative to average temperature for 1880 - 1920, which we take as an appropriate estimate of «pre-industrial» temperature, 2017 was +1.17 °C (
~ 2.1 °F)
warmer than in the 1880 - 1920 base
period.
The Eemian
period (the previous one
~ 100k yrs ago) was a couple of degrees
warmer, sea levels were a few metres higher, but CO2 levels were still below 300 ppmv.