How does the Medieval
Warm Period compare to current conditions?
From recent experience on this site and dealing with this topic «How does the Medieval
Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?»
«We could see that the concentration of carbon dioxide and solar radiation was higher during the cold period between the two
warm periods compared with the cold period before the first warming 15,000 years ago.
Disagreement seems to centre over how the two
warm periods compare to each other, and exactly how cold, and continuous the cool period was.
Not exact matches
More electrical energy tends to be used to keep a coffee maker's
warming plate on for extended
periods of time,
compared to the quick use needed to make a single serve cup of coffee.
The additional
warming caused a near - doubling of melt rates in the twenty - year
period from 1995 to 2015
compared to previous times when the same blocking and ocean conditions were present.
Experiments carried out in the OU Mars Simulation Chamber — specialised equipment, which is able to simulate the atmospheric conditions on Mars — reveal that Mars» thin atmosphere (about 7 mbar —
compared to 1,000 mbar on Earth) combined with
periods of relatively
warm surface temperatures causes water flowing on the surface to violently boil.
However, peat formed during these
warm intervals was not extensively decomposed
compared to peat formed during cooler
periods.
By
comparing the small oscillations in cosmic ray rate and temperature with the overall trends in both since 1955, Sloan and Wolfendale found that less than 14 percent of the global
warming seen during this
period could have been caused by solar activity.
Over this 100 - year
period, O'Gorman found that average snowfall decreased substantially in many Northern Hemisphere regions in
warm - climate scenarios
compared with the milder control climates, but that snowfall amounts in the largest snowstorms did not decrease to the same extent.
However, Goddard said the results don't fully show the slowdown has disappeared when
comparing the past 15 years to the decades preceding that
period and that understanding the natural fluctuations in climate on a year - to - year (or even decade - to - decade) basis provides important context to the
warming trends driven by carbon dioxide.
It refers to a
period of slower surface
warming in the wake of the 1997 - 98 super El Niño
compared to the previous decades.
This was
compared with historical tide - gauge and satellite observations of sea - level change for the «global
warming»
period, since the industrial revolution.
As a consequence, their results are strongly influenced by the low increase in observed
warming during the past decade (about 0.05 °C / decade in the 1998 — 2012
period compared to about 0.12 °C / decade from 1951 to 2012, see IPCC 2013), and therewith possibly also by the incomplete coverage of global temperature observations (Cowtan and Way 2013).
During the June 18 to 24
period, 731 daily high temperature records and 798 daily
warm low temperature records were set or tied in the U.S.,
compared to 154 record cold daily high temperatures and 131 record cold daily low temperature records, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
In his seminal 1982 book Climate, History, and the Modern World, the renown climatologist Dr. H.H. Lamb revealed that sea ice in the subarctic and Arctic regions was much less extensive during the Medieval
Warm Period (9th - 13th centuries)
compared to today.
CO 2 equivalents: The GWP value (Global
Warming Potential) of a gas is defined as the cumulative impact on the greenhouse effect of 1 tonne of the gas
compared with that of 1 tonne of CO 2 over a specified
period of time.
Globally, extremely
warm nights that used to come once in 20 years now occur every 10 years.12 And extremely hot summers, those more than three standard deviations above the historic average, are now observed in about 10 % of the global land area,
compared to 0.1 - 0.2 % for the
period 1951 - 1980.13
Figure 4
compares trendlines for each
warming onset, plateau and cooling segment of the five interglacial
periods.
During the June 18 - to - 24
period, 731 daily high temperature records and 798 daily
warm low temperature records were set or tied in the U.S.,
compared to 154 record cold daily high temperatures and 131 record cold daily low temperature records, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
I could even use the data you supply to argue it the other way — that is, the two minima you
compare seem quite different, yet both» 96 - ’97 and» 07 - ’08 are pretty hot
periods globally, with 2007 for instance just a few hundredths of a degree
warmer than ’97 in HadCRUT.
We know that when James Hansen made his famous predictions to congress in 1988 that he didn't know he was
comparing a
period, which was in the
warm end of a sixty year PDO weather cycle with
periods in the cool end.
Compared to the average temperatures from the 1951 to 1980
period, the largest unusually
warm areas over all of 2004 were in Alaska, near the Caspian Sea, and over the Antarctic Peninsula.
These positive events are characterized by both significant anomalous
warming over the western pole and significant anomalous cooling over the eastern pole, whereas only significant cooling
compared to the climatology over the eastern pole is observed in the earlier two
periods.
We are looking at the end of this interglacial
period based firmly upon historical cycles and norms without any acceleration when
compared to previous cycles, as that happens, more
warm would be seen as a blessing.
In the posts, Stephen McIntyre questions sets of tree - ring data used in, or excluded from, prominent studies concluding that recent
warming is unusual even when
compared with past
warm periods in the last several millenniums (including the recent Kaufman et al. paper discussed here).
«We provide an analysis of Greenland temperature records to
compare the current (1995 — 2005)
warming period with the previous (1920 — 1930) Greenland
warming.
But the regional climate of Greenland (and of most of the Arctic) remained longer cooler,
compared to the global trend in the second
warming period.
Research indicates that the Arctic had substantially less sea ice during this
period compared to present Current desert regions of Central Asia were extensively forested due to higher rainfall, and the warm temperate forest belts in China and Japan were extended northwards West African sediments additionally record the «African Humid Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been rep
period compared to present Current desert regions of Central Asia were extensively forested due to higher rainfall, and the
warm temperate forest belts in China and Japan were extended northwards West African sediments additionally record the «African Humid
Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been rep
Period», an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago when Africa was much wetter due to a strengthening of the African monsoon While there do not appear to have been significant temperature changes at most low latitude sites, other climate changes have been reported.
Blue colours show lower temperatures and
warm colours show higher temperatures when
compared to the 1961 - 1990 reference
period.
Figure 1 - Reconstructed surface temperature anomalies for the Medieval
Warm Period (950-1250) compared to a 1961 - 1990 reference p
Period (950-1250)
compared to a 1961 - 1990 reference
periodperiod.
More recently two of the authors published Viau et al (2012) which surely supports the contention of this SkS OP as it kicks off its conclusions stating «The pollen - based paleoclimate reconstructions show that
warmer conditions during the MWP and cooler in the LIA were all nevertheless cooler than the 1961 — 1990 base
period, and this result emerges even without
comparing the results to the instrumental record.»
For this reason, before we can claim that a particular «global
warming»
period is «unusual» or «man - made», we need to have enough data to
compare it to other
periods.
The multiproxy studies which suggest that the Current
Warm Period is unusual,
compared to the rest of the millennium.
The first problem is that most of the indicators have records that are too short to
compare the recent
warm period to the earlier
warm periods, i.e., they don't start until after the 1930s - 1940s
warm period.
But, none of them actually covered a long enough time
period to
compare the recent
warm period to the earlier
warm periods, such as the 1930s - 1940s
warm period.
A simple experiment was done by
comparing the amount of radiation from the earth in response to
warming or cooling over a
period of time.
The other obvious point is that when we
compare these to the current instrumental temperature record, the Medieval
Warm Period seems to be about 0.7 degrees C cooler than the 2000 - 2010 mean temperature.
And they analyse the double standards used when discussing the so - called «pause» as
compared to an equally long
period of rapid
warming, which in fact deviated more from the long - term trend than the recent phase of slower
warming.
This rate (0.28 degC per century) is very different to the rates referred to by Phil Jones for the
warming periods detailed in my above comment, so the slow down is very apparent when the last 20 years is
compared to the rate of the 1860 to 1880
warming episode which was slightly greater than the 1920 to 1940
warming episode, and also slightly greater than the late 20th century
warming episode
Compare the temperature increase between 1975 - 1998 (main
warming period in the latter part of the 20th century) for both POGA H and POGA C:
In addition to running climate models, the researchers
compared modern
warming to similar temperature increases that happened approximately 120,000 years ago in a
period known as the Eemian, when global sea level was 5 to 9 meters (between 16 and 30 feet) higher than it is today due to the release of glacial water.
Despite the fact there is no
warming from 31 - 60, his approach shows an increased amount of
warming with every passing year (to see the total
warming for a
period,
compare the endpoints of the lines).
In sum, although bioenergy from wood can lower long - run CO2 concentrations
compared to fossil fuels, its first impact is an increase in CO2, worsening global
warming over the critical
period through 2100 even if the wood offsets coal, the most carbon - intensive fossil fuel.
Here's step 3 again: 3)
Comparing the total
warming over two different
periods to see which has shown more total
warming.
3)
Comparing the total
warming over two different
periods to see which has shown more total
warming.
I deal with the spin on a daily basis, while personally I have made my own investigations into what people refer to as climate science and
compare it to other, less politicized scientific inquiries into paloeoceanography, paleogeology, paleoclimatology, and of course the science related to our current ice age and what pulls us into
periods of glaciation and what impacts trigger interglatial
warming periods.
Well, ANU, snarky though you may be, you raise a nominally interesting point; the problem, however, is that the amounts are anomalies; so the 90's are on average a certain amount above the average of the base
period; now to
compare the increase in anomalies in the noughties, which are higher than the nineties and say this is evidence of progressive
warming, hottest ever, or whatever is the current alarmist catch - cry, ignores the fact that the true measure of the
warming is not the absolute anomalies but their difference; that is the amounts for the noughties should have the amounts for the nineties subtracted from them and then
compared with the nineties after they have the eighties subtracted from them.
We don't
compare the temperature change that occurred over the course of 1 year to the change that occurred over a 35 - year
period and claim that because the 1 - year
period changed by, say, 0.5 °C (like 2015 to 2016 did), that therefore we are
warming at a rate o 5.0 °C per decade and this is 30 times faster than the 1979 - 2014 rate (0.12 °C per decade).
Because that is a proper measure of the change in rate of
warming which is different from saying the noughties are
warmer; of course they are because we are in a
warming period which began in 1850;
compared with an anomaly base in the 50's or 60's, succeeding decades will be absolutely
warmer but whether they are
warming at the same rate is really the test.