Not exact matches
The earth's
ocean temperatures are getting
warmer, too — which
means that tropical storms can pick up more energy.
He said he does think, however, that there will a broader shift to
warmer ocean conditions that will last for several years and that
means that global
temperatures will hover around the level they have recently reached before moving upward again, like stairs on a staircase.
For the change in annual
mean surface air
temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum
warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptak
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptak
ocean heat uptake)(2)
The East Pacific
Ocean (90S - 90N, 180 - 80W) has not
warmed since the start of the satellite - based Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface
temperature dataset, yet the multi-model
mean of the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) and CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) simulations of sea surface
temperatures say, if they were
warmed by anthropogenic forcings, they should have
warmed approximately 0.42 to 0.44 deg C.
The Arctic is
warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, because as ice melts at the top of the world, there is less of it to reflect sunlight back into space, so more of it is absorbed by
ocean waters; more absorbed sunlight
means even
warmer temperatures, which
means more ice melt a circular process known as Arctic amplification.
The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed changes, are often simple
temperature indices such as the global
mean surface
temperature and
ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential
warming between the SH and NH (together with the global
mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
mean sea level.
The average
mean temperature in January ranges from 53 - 59 degrees F; summers are a little
warmer with an average
mean temperature in July that ranges from 62 - 70 degrees F. Both winter and summer
temperature extremes are moderated by the moist
ocean air with generally high nighttime humidities and frequent fog.
If
mean global
temperatures trending significantly upward over the last 100 years isn't worrying enough for you, how about that giant piece of Antarctica that is about to crack off and sink into the
ocean... I don't know how the existence of global
warming is still a debate!
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2 changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced
warming and
ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global
mean temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
Anthropogenic climate change will
mean an increased average
temperature for the
oceans and possible changes in current systems that could locally amplify or reduce
warming and can alter nutrient cycling resulting in changes in the amount of nutrients available for the growth of phytoplankton, the plant plankton that are the base of the food chain.
And it comes from Emanuel I believe, which is to say the Pacific and Indian
Oceans are already
warmer, thus this is an opening in the natural system that needs to catch up given the rising global
mean temperature.
Arguing wheter
ocean or land
temperature raise to decide global
warming is no
meaning.
The corals lie within the Western Pacific
Warm Pool, which at present has the highest
mean annual
temperature in the world's
ocean.
By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global
mean surface
temperature, the land -
ocean temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the
mean magnitude of the annual cycle in
temperature over land and the
mean meridional
temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the
warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas
warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
Stronger vertical mixing invigorates the MOC [Meridonal Overturning Circulation] by an order of magnitude, increases
ocean heat transport by 50 — 100 %, reduces the zonal
mean equator - to - pole
temperature gradients by up to 6 °C, lowers tropical peak terrestrial
temperatures by up to 6 °C, and
warms high - latitude
oceans by up to 10 °C.»
The change of IPO from negative to positive
means upcoming period of
warmer Eastern Pacific
Ocean temperature.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the
warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (land) and SST
oceans,
meaning projected
warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
Many agricultural regions
warm at a rate that is faster than the global
mean surface
temperature (including
oceans) but slower than the
mean land surface
temperature, leading to regional
warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
mean sea level.
Well
warmer ocean temperatures generally
means more water vapor gets into the air, and that
means more and / or bigger storms, flooding, a
warmer Arctic, etc..
Because the
mean meridional
temperature gradient of the subsurface
ocean is positive because of the
temperature dome around 9 ° N, the advection by the anomalous northward current cools the TNA subsurface
ocean during the
warm phase of the AMO.
The red and white colors
mean above - normal, or very
warm,
temperatures in that area of the Pacific
Ocean.
This partitioning ratio is
temperature - dependent,
meaning that if you
warm the
ocean it changes, albeit slightly.
Then, especially when there is excessive cloud cover over the
oceans, the Sun's energy absorbed above the clouds can actually make its way down to the
ocean surface (and below)
warming the
oceans by non-radiative processes, not by direct solar radiation which mostly passes through the thin surface layer and could barely raise the
mean temperature of an asphalt paved Earth above -35 C.
This
means it will take centuries to millennia for deep
ocean temperatures to
warm in response to today's surface conditions, and at least as long for
ocean warming to reverse after atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations decrease (virtually certain).
TagsNASA, NASA news, global
warming, climate change, NOAA, Global Warming Hiatus, global mean surface temperature, warming ocean, Warming Temperatures, ocean heat
warming, climate change, NOAA, Global
Warming Hiatus, global mean surface temperature, warming ocean, Warming Temperatures, ocean heat
Warming Hiatus, global
mean surface
temperature,
warming ocean, Warming Temperatures, ocean heat
warming ocean,
Warming Temperatures, ocean heat
Warming Temperatures,
ocean heat content
From the paper: «The results also 1) reveal a significant level of coupling between
ocean and land
temperatures that remains even after the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions have been removed; 2) serve to highlight the improvements in the quality of the time series of global -
mean land
temperatures with the increase in the areal coverage of the station network from 1951 onward; and 3) yield a residual time series in which the signature of anthropogenically induced global
warming is more prominent.»
To point out just a couple of things: —
oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I
mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that
oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside
oceans, so no latent heat) or
oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while
oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in
temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I
mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
This suggests three levels of skepticism even in Muller's mind: a) global
warming which in the context
means the land
temperature record (not the
ocean heat as Pielke Sr would prefer) b) its human causes (where Judith Curry also parts company with Muller) and c) what can and should be done about b).
From the University of Southampton: New study finds variations in global
warming trend are caused by
oceans New research has shown that natural variations in global
mean temperature are always forced by...
(Someone somewhere I saw recently, maybe in this thread estimated that if all the excess heat in the
ocean were distributed to the lower atmosphere instead the global
mean surface
temperature would be 36 C
warmer.
Presumably you
mean a patch of water on the
ocean cooled by a value D degs.C would reduce the surface
temperature by more than an equal and opposite patch of water
warmed by D Degs.C would
warm it *.
Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in
mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global
warming.»
Helen Cleugh, science director at CSIRO
Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, says measurements do show that the rate at which global
mean surface
temperature has
warmed in the past decade is less than the previous decade.
Kevin C's excellent trend tool shows us what the new data
mean for the surface
temperature trend since 1970: it's about +0.17 C per decade, but there's a range in that because short term wiggles are caused by things like the El Nino - La Nina cycle in the Pacific which
warm or cool the atmosphere by storing or releasing heat from the
oceans.
They compared their storm surge index to changes in global surface
temperature, to
temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR; a part of the Atlantic
Ocean where most hurricanes form), and to MDR
warming relative to the tropical
mean temperatures (rMDR).
According to a recently published paper in the journal Science, (Cook et al., 2016, «
Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula»), between 1945 and 2009 the mean ocean temperature warmed at depths of 150 to 400 meters for about 3 / 4ths of the waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula
Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula»), between 1945 and 2009 the
mean ocean temperature warmed at depths of 150 to 400 meters for about 3 / 4ths of the waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula
ocean temperature warmed at depths of 150 to 400 meters for about 3 / 4ths of the waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula (AP).
* There is no such thing as a meaningful «Earth»
temperature, as some regions are cooling, some are
warming, the depths of the
ocean have different levels of heat content that can not be uniformly measured against a
mean, etc..
The results here reveal a larger picture — that the western tropical Indian
Ocean has been
warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical
oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global
mean sea surface
temperature (SST)»
HS12 assume that deep
ocean temperature change was similar to global
mean surface
temperature change for Cenozoic climates
warmer than today, but this relationship does not hold true for colder climates.
22 Land areas are projected to
warm more than the
oceans with the greatest
warming at high latitudes Annual
mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C
The
temperature trends during the past decades as observed and in the (ensemble
mean) model response (Fig. 4) are roughly consistent with each other, which indicates that much of the land
warming is a response to the
warming of the
oceans.
I guess it
means that most of the
ocean surface
temperatures are something like 3.5 degrees C
warmer than before.
However,
ocean temperatures have
warmed almost everywhere on the planet, with 0.5 ºC being the global
mean rise of sea surface
temperature, hence Trenberth's reasonable estimate that this much is the contribution from global forcings like CO2.
Increases in surface
temperatures don't necessarily
mean that the bulk
oceans have
warmed.
Changes in
mean global
ocean pH / pCO2, due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2, will reduce pH (ca − 0.3 to 0.5 units / 500 + µatm), and global
warming will contribute to increased sea surface
temperature (+1.1 to 6.4 °C), by 2100 [1 — 4,7].
And that, combined with the current record
ocean temperatures — and faster than expected
warming of the
ocean's surface layer —
means we can expect a continuation of the unexpectedly fast loss of Arctic sea ice and of land - locked ice in Greenland and Antarctica.
The earth's
ocean temperatures are getting
warmer, too — which
means that tropical storms can pick up more energy.
When the
ocean warms further, this balance likely means that sea ice onset will start at even colder temperatures, with the warming atmosphere this will make a refreeze of the Arctic Ocean well into the long n
ocean warms further, this balance likely
means that sea ice onset will start at even colder
temperatures, with the
warming atmosphere this will make a refreeze of the Arctic
Ocean well into the long n
Ocean well into the long night.